Start a war for Oil in a region where critical fertilizers and ag inputs are sourced, keep it going as we head into an historic and destructive weather cycle.
Yup, that ought to do it.
This is how climate change is a chaos multiplier.
When it comes to food security, things may get worse before they get better. And as Howard Jones sang in his 1985 hit, “Things Can Only Get Better,” he “won’t stop and falter.”
That’s a fitting attitude for Americans staring down the possibility of even higher grocery bills. A new report from JPMorgan, Food Security is National Security: A Compounding Storm, warns that global food costs could climb 5% in the first half of 2027. That’s up from the current US food inflation rate of 3% — a number that’s already putting pressure on household budgets.
The U.S. isn’t among the countries most likely to be directly hit by the food-security threats JPMorgan forecasts. But that doesn’t mean Americans will be sheltered from them.
America relies on imports for many of its staple foods, including coffee, cocoa and sugar. All of these goods are generally supplied to the US by the countries that are most likely to be directly impacted.
Here’s what’s putting global food access at risk and why some countries are better prepared than others.
El Niño, Iran War and fertilizer shortages
There are two prongs to JPMorgan’s predicted food deficits: a fertilizer shortage and a monumental weather event.
And the Strait of Hormuz’s closure wasn’t just bad for gasoline prices. The strait also sees about a third of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer — an essential form of fertilizer for around half of the world’s crops.
Nitrogen fertilizer shortages are a ticking time bomb. Because it’s needed during the early stages of crop growth, we could still be feeling the effects of a shortage as much as a year later.
“Agriculture operates within a crop calendar that cannot be postponed, said Qu Dongyu, director-general of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, in a news post on their website. “Fertilizers must be applied at specific moments in the crop cycle. If they do not arrive on time, yields are reduced, regardless of what happens later.”
At the same time, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center is estimating over a 90% chance of a “very strong” El Niño during the winter and fall of 2026. There’s a 69% chance that it’s the biggest El Niño on record since 1950.
During an El Niño event, central and eastern Pacific Ocean surfaces are significantly warmer than normal. This can impact countries’ weather worldwide, raising temperatures and causing droughts in some parts of the world.
All of these can impact how healthy crop yields are. For this El Niño, JPMorgan expects Asia and Latin America to bear the brunt.
New WFP analysis shows El Niño is set to sharply increase hunger in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries, with 274 million people in 45 countries forecast to be acutely food insecure by the end 2027 – 49 million more than today.
These forecasts – along with lessons learnt from previous El Ninos – are critical because they allow governments and humanitarian organizations like WFP to act early – before drought, floods or failed harvests begin to affect food production and incomes.
This latest El Niño is also unfolding at a time when food systems are already under strain. High energy and fertilizer prices – linked in part to wider geopolitical pressures – are already affecting planting decisions, agricultural production and food prices. Together, these factors increase the risk that climate shocks could push more people into hunger.
- Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to see drier-than-average conditions, and potentially some of the most dramatic hikes in food insecurity, potentially surging nearly 50 percent regionally and affecting more than 16 million people.
- East and southern Africa could also see deteriorating food insecurity for more than 18 million people, up by more than one-quarter, and with southern Africa particularly vulnerable.
- Asia and the Pacific similarly risk a strong El Niño backlash, potentially pushing an additional 8.2 million people into acute hunger.
- West and Central Africa, with a mixed forecast of both drought and wetter-than-normal conditions depending on affected countries, is projected to see food insecurity impact nearly 6 million more people, a 12 percent increase.
- Middle East and North Africa could see El Niño intensify pressure on food systems already strained by conflict and economic pressures, with more than 33 million people already facing hunger.