Category: This is Not Cool

Shit’s getting real, and Big Dogs in Trump’s sponsoring industry are speaking up.
I posted the remarks by Chevron’s CEO earlier.
The Exxon official’s comments are below.

“New” research confirming what Kevin Trenberth (above) and others were telling me 10 years ago.
I find its good to review these Q and As from time to time as I pick up on more insights that I might not have heard at the time.
Worth considering as we head into an El Niño summer.

USAToday:

Another one for the weird science file.

New research shows that although the world is seeing more rain overall, it’s also getting drier at the same time.

How can that be? In simple terms, the world’s rainfall is increasingly packed into bigger storms with longer dry spells in between. And a lot of rain all at once causes problems for overwhelmed soil.

The findings say the study is the first to demonstrate that a year’s worth of rainfall packed into bigger and wetter storms means less water for aquifers and ecosystems, even if total precipitation increases. Because soil can absorb only so much water at once, what is not soaked up collects on the surface where it’s more readily evaporated.

Study lead author Corey Lesk, who led the study while a fellow at Dartmouth College, explained it in an email to USA TODAY: “Regardless of how much precipitation falls, when rain and snow come in stronger bursts separated by longer dry spells, less water tends to remain on the land (in soils, lakes, and groundwater) for use by people and nature.”

Continue reading “How Heavier Rain Makes Dryer Soil”

Econ 101. As one interviewer says, “a clinic.”

A view into the very sharp but highly geo-fenced mind of a fossil CEO, Chevron’s Mike Wirth.

He confirms right at the top that current pricing for oil reflects more wishful thinking than reality.

What clicked was when he said “..the US has come to the rescue of some of our allies around the world, we’re exporting crude at record levels, we’re exporting products to Europe, in particular..and so what that means is that products that might otherwise be used in the US are being highly valued elsewhere, so we’re seeing flows in that direction…”.

Translation: “The war our boy started in the Middle East is a catastrophe for our friends and allies, but we are willing to sell our product to them at higher prices, while stiffing the Americans who we spent billions convincing to vote against their own interests, resulting in record earnings for us.”

“So, no sweat, it’s all good. We make money no matter what happens.”

He notes that supplies are tight and refineries are running at full capacity, peak demand season is coming. Shortages could begin to show up soon.
Indicators flashing red.

RMI:

As electricity demand in the United States continues to grow — from data centers, electric vehicles, and other large loads — utilities are struggling to keep up. Instead of building more traditional power plants, utilities can meet that demand in a cleaner and cheaper way by also turning to virtual power plants (VPPs).

VPPs are aggregations of distributed energy resources such as batteries, electric vehicles, smart thermostats, and other connected devices that can provide utility-scale and utility-grade services. Designing VPP Programs to meet utilities’ needs, however, requires planning. Just as traditional grid resources are weighed in utilities’ plans, VPPs should also be considered, modeled, and included in the utility planning process.

Today, existing and proposed VPPs are approaching and exceeding the scale of traditional power plants. In 2024, the average combustion gas turbine in the United States was 180 megawatts (MW). Meanwhile, several VPP programs across the country have met or exceeded this capacity:

• In Massachusetts, National Grid launched ConnectedSolutions in 2016, which has grown to 227 MW and includes residential thermostats, residential batteries, and commercial and industrial demand response. Beyond Massachusetts, ConnectedSolutions’ region-wide, open-access VPP shaved 375 MW of demand from the New England grid during a multi-day heat wave in June 2024.
• In California, the Emergency Load Reduction Program (ELRP) and Demand Side Grid Support (DSGS) programs were launched in 2021 and 2022 respectively, to shore up near-term reliability quickly in response to rolling blackouts. The ELRP reached nearly 800 MW as of 2023 and DSGS has reached 1,145 MW as of October 2025 with a majority of the program’s capacity — 768 MW — stemming from the market-aware storage pilot program.

Continue reading “Virtual Power Plant’s Time has Come”

Power crisis in Cuba, due to US blockade of the island.
China swoops in with solar panels, winning hearts, minds and markets.
Good job, team.

First, fire the Ebola police.

Now nuclear waste.
There is a cost to hollowing out a government that was built for a reason – supposedly to support the solutions to nuclear waste that the industry has always told us was easy, and right around the corner.

Government Accountability Office:

The Department of Energy’s Office of Environmental Management’s federal staff oversee nuclear cleanup work across the U.S. In 2024, we reported that the office was understaffed, with a 17% vacancy rate—and that workforce challenges had caused delays, cost overruns, and accidents.

At the end of FY 2025, it had even fewer staff, with vacancy rate of 45%. Almost half of its vacancies were in mission-critical positions, such as nuclear safety specialists. Many in the remaining workforce are or will soon be eligible for retirement.

We maintain that the office should implement the recommendations from our 2024 report as it’s rebuilding its workforce.

Continue reading “First, We Fire the Ebola Police. Now, Nuclear Waste.”

This is going to tick you off.

Pronounced “chicken – gun-ya”. Never heard of it till my daughter went to India last year and had to get the shot.
I looked it up. It ain’t Ebola, but not a day at the beach either.

Euro News:

As climate change drives mosquitoes north, Europe and North America are emerging as hotspots for chikungunya virus, a new study warns.

Warmer temperatures may expand mosquito habitats, increasing chikungunya risk areas globally, a new study has found.

The research, published in the journal Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiologyand carried out by scientists in China, found that 139 countries or regions are risk zones for chikungunya, a mosquito-borne viral disease. This accounts for 21.3% of the world’s land mass.

“But we show that under climate change models, the virus will further expand northward into temperate regions, especially northeastern North America, central Europe, and East Asia,” said Dr Ye Xu, co-author of the study.

Chikungunya has been mainly transmitted by the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti, a species that thrives in human settlements in the tropics.

Continue reading “Chikungunya is the New Climate Virus to Watch”

Consulting firm Wood Mackenzie posits 3 scenarios for how the latest war for Oil will play out – short, medium and long term impacts modeled.
An extended war plays havoc with Trump administration plans for global domination with US Liquified Natural Gas (LNG).

Wood Mackenzie:

Quick Peace scenario: LNG prices soften soon after a peace deal is announced, but global LNG markets are tight until summer 2027. LNG supply from undamaged Gulf facilities take time to return to full capacity, with delays to projects currently under construction in the region. The anticipated oversupply, albeit delayed until 2028, remains inevitable once the strait reopens from June, however.   

With a major expansion in global LNG capacity under construction, supply is set to increase by about 50% from current levels, restoring confidence in LNG and driving a new phase of demand growth in emerging Asian markets. However, the combined impact of short-term demand destruction and levels of new supply results in a market imbalance. US LNG cargo cancellations are likely to be required to balance the market, more than halving European prices by 2031. Prices then recover slightly between 2030 and 2035. 

Summer Settlement scenario: prices continue to increase through summer 2026 and remain strong well into 2027. Additional delays to Gulf projects under construction reduce supply further, but this only pushes the oversupply into 2029. As countries look to reduce their exposure to LNG, demand downside risk cannot be ruled out, potentially exacerbating the oversupply after 2030. 

Extended Disruption scenario: the global LNG market is fundamentally reshaped. Prices skyrocket, potentially reaching US$40/mmbtu if the conflict restarts. Persistent geopolitical risks and sporadic Strait closures could reshape the LNG market in the long term.  

Worth a watch.

Bloomberg has a crackerjack video production unit.
The piece above is a great historical overview of global grid development, and includes a discussion of last year’s Iberian blackout – which have spotlighted a vulnerability of renewables on the grid – the lack of spinning mass to even out fluctuations on the grid.
The spotlighted solution includes adding in some equipment to replace that mass – and below, Undecided has a nice discussion of Flywheels – a technology with a long history whose time might have come again.

Below, there are other solutions as well, involving Batteries, which seem to be good for damn near everything.

Continue reading “Reshaping the Grid for Renewables and AI”