Hormuz Closure a Big Wrench in LNG Plans

Iran “excursion” is the cluster that keeps on fucking.

Hard to imagine what a malevolent AI could have devised that would be more maximally destructive to exactly those constituencies the administration promised to serve. Historians will marvel.

Wood Mackenzie:

Driven by increased electrification demand, especially around the expansion of data centers, the gas turbine market faces a significant market imbalance that will see prices surge through 2027, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie.

Utility Dive:

Gas turbine prices are projected to rise to $600/kW by the end of 2027, a 195% increase since 2019,..

Restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is also likely to impact the price and availability of components needed for gas turbine manufacturing, Bobby Noble, senior program manager of gas turbine research and development at the Electric Power Research Institute, told Utility Dive in an interview. “So it will be interesting to see in the next couple months how quickly some of those increased potential costs will start playing into the estimates that are being given.”

“While there may be manufacturing facilities here in the U.S. or in Europe or in Asia that can locally produce gas turbines and other components — the raw materials, the ceramic coating material and other things — there’s only going to be so much supply available right now before we need to look at where those components or materials can be sourced from, and see if there’s an adverse effect due to the current global situation,” Noble said.

“Of course, anything that has to be shipped, those costs will likely rise,” he added. 

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MAGA Making China Great Again

Above, German report an EV acceleration post Iran war.

MAGA determined to make China Great Again – as Iran war explodes gas prices – and EV sales, mostly from China – insuring that the US Auto industry falls hopelessly behind.
China must be pinching themselves at how well this is going, their primary rival committing economic suicide.
Great job, team.

New York Times:

Many established U.S. and European carmakers have been stumped by electric vehicles at seemingly every turn. First, Tesla’s meteoric rise caught them unawares. They responded by investing in new factories but are now pulling back after the U.S. government repealed tax credits and other subsidies for those cars.

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BBC Ties Trump Moves to Oil Trades

War is a Racket – Smedley Butler

Dittie on X:

$580,000,000 in oil futures moved 16 minutes before Trump announced a pause in Iran strikes.

Not after. Before.

The BBC just documented five separate instances of massive, suspiciously timed trades preceding Trump’s biggest market-moving announcements — oil futures, the tariff pause, Maduro’s capture, Iran ceasefire bets.

The platforms where anonymous accounts cashed in? Polymarket and Kalshi. Donald Trump Jr. sits on Polymarket’s advisory board and is a strategic advisor to Kalshi.

There’s even a law against this. The STOCK Act (2012) explicitly covers executive branch officials. Zero prosecutions in 14 years.

Oh, and the DOJ unit created after Watergate to prosecute exactly this kind of corruption? Trump cut it from 36 lawyers to 2 and stripped its authority to file new cases.

Kaiju El Niño Could be a Killer

Above, Daniel Swain’s always worthwhile informed perspective on the upcoming El Niño.
Below, sobering post from Ryan Maue, not generally known as an alarmist.

American Institute of Physics:

What may be the greatest El Niño ever identified may have caused record-breaking droughts that helped trigger disastrous famines, likely killing more than 50 million people globally, a new study finds. Moreover, such an extreme El Niño could repeat in the future, scientists added.

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Hormuz was a Rug Pull for MAGA Fossil Fuel Narrative

Cue Sad Trombone.

Hormuz Closure has countries all over the world bailing on LNG plans.
Also, they’ve realized that the US is no longer a reliable partner, having seen the treacherous, double dealing, and dishonorable way we’ve been threatening, bullying and double crossing our closest allies.
No one wants any part of that. So that cabinet seat that Secretary of Energy and Fracking grifter Chris Wright paid a million dollars for is becoming less valuable every day.
Laughed so damn hard reading this.

Washington Post:

U.S. energy firms investing billions of dollars in hulking liquefied natural gas export terminals along the Gulf Coast have capitalized on an insatiable appetite for the fuel from Europe and fast-growing economies in Asia.

Now, the conflict in Iran has many of those customers vowing to go on a permanent diet.

As Asia and Europe grapple with the energy disruption created by the war, countries there are scrambling to pivot away from imported fuels, throwing a wrench into the expansion plans of American energy companies and fossil fuels’ long-term outlook.

In countries where the power crunch is so dire that workweeks have been shortened, factories are closing and government rationing has been imposed, leaders are looking beyond just diversifying where they buy fuel to changing what fuels they use. Governments from Manila to Hanoi are leaning into alternatives that range from expanding coal power to endeavoring to build fleets of nuclear plants to increasing their fleets of electric vehicles, all in pursuit of cutting their foreign imports.

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Weather Whiplash has Wet to Dry Extremes Across US

Farm Journal above notes that three quarters of the US is under some kind of Drought condition, from mild to severe, even as the Upper Midwest deals with extreme flooding.

This week’s Drought Monitor map:

Below, CBS report on Upper Midwest flooding – Wisconsin looks pretty bad.
More rain on the way tonight, tomorrow for the same hard-hit areas.

Curtailed UK Wind Turbines are Big Energy Opportunity

Why batteries are like Bacon – they make everything better.

TLDR – Transmission network from Scottish wind farms are not adequate to transmit all of the produced power.
Building more transmission lines is expensive and presents more difficulties.
Solution: Batteries to soak up power at times of lower demand, and release it when demand rises.
Falling price of batteries represents a phase change for modern grid architecture.