Above, former Chair of Exxon Rex Tillerson in 2011, responding to a question from activist David Fenton.
“We’ll adapt.” he says. “Climate models are unreliable.”
“The consequences are manageable.” he says.
We know Exxon does good science on climate – they have just kept the results of their work a secret until a few years ago. Exxon scientists made forecasts of climate warming in the 1970s and 80s that are now being born out as very accurate today – so Mr Tillerson’s protests that climate models are unreliable and inaccurate was dishonest, as evidenced by the work of the company’s own staff.
Now that science team has some new numbers. The impact of the current conflict in the Middle East is not factored in. – which I believe pretty much negates the findings (see elsewhere on this page).
Nevertheless, worth knowing that these bastards persist in not giving a damn about their own children, much less yours.
Vote accordingly.
The world is at risk of falling behind in efforts to reduce carbon emissions by 2050, ExxonMobil said in its annual energy outlook published on Thursday, as the burning of coal could decline at a slower rate than previously expected.
Exxon estimates coal will account for 15% of the world’s energy mix by 2050, down from 25% in 2025, but up by one percentage point from the company’s previous projection. That is because coal is still a significant energy source in China and other countries in Asia and is considered key for energy security, said Prasanna Joshi, Exxon’s director of economics and energy, at a briefing.
Last week, the International Energy Agency forecast global coal demand to rise to a record 8.94 billion metric tons this year, as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran chokes off exports of crude and liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Exxon’s outlook, which provides the basis for its investment decisions, does not account for the Middle East conflict because it is too early to determine the full ramifications, Joshi said.
“We need a few more years to really understand what the impact is going to be on long-term fundamentals,” he said.
Here are more details on Exxon’s energy outlook:
- Annual global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to fall to 30 billion metric tons by 2050, far above the level of 11 billion metric tons that a United Nations body determined would be needed to limit increases to the average global temperature.
- That level of emissions in 2050 implies global temperatures could rise between 2.5 and 3 degrees Celsius, Joshi said.
- Last year, Exxon projected annual 2050 global emissions would be 27 billion metric tons.
- Exxon also lowered its estimate for the amount of carbon that will be captured globally and stored underground. The company forecasts that amount could reach 2 billion metric tons by 2050, down from its prior estimate of 3.1 billion metric tons.
- Oil demand will reach about 105 million barrels per day in 2050, up from the global consumption of 100 million bpd last year. The projection is unchanged from Exxon’s previous estimate.
- Global electricity demand is expected to grow 65% by 2050 from 2025, largely in line with Exxon’s previous estimate. The demand growth will be driven by industrial sectors and the increasing number of data centers.
A trove of internal documents and research papers has previously established that Exxon knew of the dangers of global heating from at least the 1970s, with other oil industry bodies knowing of the risk even earlier, from around the 1950s. They forcefully and successfully mobilized against the science to stymie any action to reduce fossil fuel use.
A new study, however, has made clear that Exxon’s scientists were uncannily accurate in their projections from the 1970s onwards, predicting an upward curve of global temperatures and carbon dioxide emissions that is close to matching what actually occurred as the world heated up at a pace not seen in millions of years.