Global Energy analyst Jeff Currie tells Bloomberg the Energy Transition is “TurboCharged” – but it’s not about climate, and maybe never was.
By far the biggest growth in energy consumption is going to come from the developing world in Asia and Africa, and those countries are no longer willing to be held hostage to fossil fuels.
Case study – Thailand.
With global energy prices soaring since the beginning of the United State’s war on Iran, countries like Thailand have been faced with pressures on both fuel and other petroleum derived products, like fertilizers.
Thailand is using the oil shock caused by the Iran war to accelerate a shift toward electrification and domestically sourced energy, trying to turn a supply crisis into a push for greater security.
Rising prices have reinforced the government’s drive to electrify the economy, including greater adoption of battery-powered vehicles, as policymakers seek to reduce dependence on imported crude that accounts for about 90% of Thailand’s oil supplies, Energy Minister Akanat Promphan said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
The government this month released its new power development plan, which sets a minimum clean energy share of 65%, with several more aggressive options also under consideration. The most renewable-heavy scenario would lift that portion to 89%.
Thailand is considering generating 89% of its electricity from cleaner sources by 2050 as it formally puts a more ambitious long-term power plan to public consultation.
The draft released Tuesday sets a minimum clean-power share of 65%, with several more aggressive options also under consideration. The most renewable-heavy scenario would lift that share to 89%, well above the target outlined by Energy Minister Akanat Promphanlast month.
The plan comes as the country faces rising electricity demand from data centers and advanced manufacturing while trying to cut its reliance on imported natural gas, which still supplies most of its power. That dependence leaves Thailand exposed to swings in global fuel prices, a risk highlighted by the Middle East conflict and higher gas import costs.
Yes, France may have the lowest carbon emissions of any OECD nation because of the nukes, but it is also discovering that the energy security premium is not solved by nukes when the climate cost is river water too hot to use in them and increasingly, too scarce.
Even with a few reactors shut down or throttled back because of overheated rivers, France remained by far Europe’s largest electricity exporter. Despite increasing use of air conditioning, France still has much higher peak power demand in winter, so in summer there is plenty of spare capacity. Sweden actually has an even lower CO2 footprint for its power than France, is the second largest power exporter, and is also the beneficiary of a 1970s-era nuclear buildout. Both countries plan a major new reactor construction program – the Swedish government will underwrite two large reactors for the early 30s, and aims for 10 gigawatts by 2045.
And yet France can’t build new nuclear power plants anywhere near on schedule or within budget. Rising interest rates make it an even worse investment (since so much of the capital is eaten by interest).
We need to make it about the environment or civilization is doomed.
If making it about the tooth fairy motivates countries to make the transition, it’s a win. As it is, both cost-savings and energy security are more than enough to get countries (like Ethiopia) to make the transition. This current crisis is driving the point home, thanks to Trump’s stupidity.
Money and security help with the logistics of renewable energy and maybe efficiency, but only making it about stopping the destruction of the biosphere will convince people to make the other changes needed—equality, democracy, education, mental health, 51% of the world wild, changing the structure of society, nature’s rights in the constitution of every country, making every corporation a B-corp and unable to buy or own other corporations…—that will save civilization.
Yeah, not a great fan of democracy right now, considering what it has produced lately around the world.
The electorate is only as good as their chosen media [bubbles].
“Corruption is Legal in America”
RepresentUs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tu32CCA_Ig
Without democracy, civilization and millions of species—most life on Earth—are doomed. Democracy, like peaceful revolution, has a superb track record in producing wise decisions and good results. Of course what the US has is not even close to democracy, and most of Europe’s and the rest of the world’s democratic institutions are shaky and threatened.
“Wealth Inequality in America”
politizane https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPKKQnijnsM
The threat is inequality; democracy can’t function in a world that is even a little unequal because a little always becomes a lot, through rent-seeking and power-grabbing. Capitalism is likewise incompatible with democracy because it causes inequality, as we in the US are seeing now in fascism, the inevitable end-stage of capitalism.
But capitalism, fascism, inequality, ecological destruction, war, and all our other problems are caused by the complex psychological complex I think of as nihilistic narcissistic psychotic psychopathy, and its accompanying civilizational autism. It’s often called Wetiko.
“Seeing Wetiko: on Capitalism, Mind Viruses, and Antidotes for a World in Transition”
https://www.kosmosjournal.org/article/seeing-wetiko-on-capitalism-mind-viruses-and-antidotes-for-a-world-in-transition/
Part 1 (of 3) “Wetiko: The Greatest Epidemic Known to Humanity”
http://realitysandwich.com/75652/greatest_epidemic/
Dispelling Wetiko: Breaking the Curse of Evil, by Paul Levy
The one exception in the world (regarding democracy only; the rest still largely applies) is China; they aren’t going nearly as fast as they need to because the dictators there have more pressing concerns than the mere survival of nature and civilization. They are however being both more practical and more ethical and compassionate than almost all other countries; my theory is that their Confucian tradition still has strong effects. Unfortunately it’s tempered by their desire to take over the world by exploiting the climate and larger ecological crisis—their Wetiko disease.
My 1st posting of this seems to have misappeared. Sorry if this is an [approximate] repeat. Peter, feel free to delete the 1st one.
Democracy, like peaceful revolution, has a spectacular record of wise decisions and good results. The problem is, democracy is weak and under threat everywhere, and what little of it we’ve ever had in the US is now in shreds—because of inequality (including control of the media by the über-wealthy).
“Wealth Inequality in America”
politizane https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPKKQnijnsM
Note that that video was made before recent events—Covid, Ukraine+gas extortion, Strait of Warm Ooze, (with a little Bab al-Mandab Sauce on the (other) side) and La Mango Midas MacMussolini—hugely accelerated the concentration of wealth among trbillionaires.
“Corruption is Legal in America”
RepresentUs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tu32CCA_Ig
Fascism, as we’re now seeing in the US, is the end-stage of capitalism, which is the proximal cause of inequality. The ultimate cause of every problem we have—inequality, capitalism, inequality, fascism, ecological destruction, war…—is the complex psychological complex I think of as nihilistic narcissistic psychotic psychopathy, with a side of civilizational autism and an addiction to domination and sadism. Many call it Wetiko.
“Seeing Wetiko: on Capitalism, Mind Viruses, and Antidotes for a World in Transition”
https://www.kosmosjournal.org/article/seeing-wetiko-on-capitalism-mind-viruses-and-antidotes-for-a-world-in-transition/
“Wetiko: The Greatest Epidemic Known to Humanity” Part 1 [of 3] http://realitysandwich.com
/75652/greatest_epidemic/
[Link has to be reassembled]
The one exception to the democracy-is-doing-better rule is China, who despite their extraordinary speed (compared to the foot draggers everywhere else, anyway) are not going nearly fast enough. They’re doing far better than almost every other country, I think because of their Confucian traditions, but that’s tempered by their desire to take over the world by exploiting the climate-and-larger psycho-ecological crisis.
“Thailand is considering generating 89% of its electricity from cleaner sources by 2050”
2050? That’s slow-walking it.
Addendum: further reading suggestions for understanding the roots:
The Bonds of Love: Psychoanalysis, Feminism, and the Problem of Domination, by Jessica Benjamin
“The Science of Affection: How a Rebel Researcher Pioneered the Study of Love in the 1950s and Illuminated How Parents Shape Children’s Emotional Patterns” Maria Popova. https://www.themarginalian.org/2016/07/07/love-at-goon-park-harry-harlow-deborah-blum.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2002/12/16/love-at-goon-park-harry-harlow-and-the-science-of-affection
Monkey experiments based on the attachment theory of John Bowlby and Mary Ainsworth, and a look at the society in which they happened. The book:
Love at Goon Park: Harry Harlow and the Science of Affection, by Deborah Blum
For Your Own Good: hidden cruelty in child-rearing and the roots of violence, by German Psychologist Alice Miller Among other cases it looks at how, precisely, the events and circumstances of Hitler’s and other top Nazi’s early lives determined what they did as adults.
Complete book for free at: http://www.arvindguptatoys.com/arvindgupta/alicemiller.pdf
https://www.nospank.net/fyog.htm
by Wilhelm Reich:
The Function of the Orgasm: Sex-Economic
Problems of Biological Energy
The Mass Psychology of Fascism
Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming, by Naomi Oreskes, Erik M. Conway
The Republican War on Science
by Chris Mooney
Don’t Think of an Elephant and other works, George Lakoff
Archived Rockridge Inst. think tank pages