Month: March 2024

Impacts so profound that the literal turning of the earth is affected by climate change.
Michael Mann appears on CNN to explain.

Above, “Just Have a Think” video series examines concerning trends in extreme weather over Europe.
Below, additional research reinforces evidence for Chaotic new influences on Europe’s climate.

Eos:

Drip by drip, steady ice loss in the Arctic and sub-Arctic is injecting enormous quantities of meltwater into the North Atlantic Ocean. Researchers have now shown how all that fresh water ultimately drives more extreme summer weather over Europe. These results might enable better long-term weather predictions in Europe, the team concluded.

Every year, the Arctic and sub-Arctic lose several hundred cubic kilometers, on average, of both sea ice and glacial ice due to rising temperatures. The fresh water liberated by all that melting eventually enters the North Atlantic, where it aggregates into so-called freshwater anomalies. Those structures, which tend to lurk on the surface of the ocean because of their relatively low density, can measure thousands of kilometers in extent and several tens of meters deep in winter.

Freshwater anomalies in the North Atlantic have been shown to precede European heat waves. However, the mechanism—or mechanisms—behind that linkage has long remained unknown, said Marilena Oltmanns, an ocean and climate scientist at the National Oceanography Centre in the United Kingdom. That question is increasingly relevant given rapidly warming temperatures in the Arctic and recent weather extremes—such as heat waves and droughts—that have occurred in Europe, Oltmanns and her colleagues suggested.

To track the presence of freshwater anomalies, the team used satellite-derived sea surface temperature data available since 1979. That technique worked, said Oltmanns, because temperature and salinity were strongly correlated. The researchers opted not to use salinity data to trace freshwater anomalies because such data have been available over large areas only since 2009. Furthermore, many of those measurements are known to be biased, Oltmanns said. “The biases are about the same order of magnitude as the interannual variability.”

The researchers also combined data on the ocean’s temperature, salinity, and currents with atmospheric data tracing winds, pressure, temperature, and precipitation.

Continue reading “Europe at High Climate Risk”

Why engineering carbon disposal may be more challenging than thought.

Oil and Gas Watch:

Nearly two dozen oil and gas industry-sponsored projects in Louisiana to shoot carbon dioxide underground to protect the climate are at risk of leaking because of nearby abandoned wells, according to two new reports from underground injection well experts.     

Across the U.S., federal and state agencies are reviewing or have already approved 77 permits for 121 wells for carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration projects. Louisianais one of the hotspots for these projects, with 58 storage wells planned at 24 sites across the state.

However, experts say a century of oil and gas drilling has left thousands of pathways for CO2 to squeeze its way back out into the atmosphere, potentially eroding any climate benefits and creating a safety threat for nearby residents in the event of massive rupture or leak.   

“It’s not a question of whether these things are going to leak,” said Abel Russ, senior attorney for the Environmental Integrity Project (EIP) and director of EIP’s Center for Applied Environmental Science, which sponsored the two reports. “It’s a question of how much is acceptable and how much it’s going to be happening.”  
 
According to the studies, more than 186,000 oil and gas wells pockmark Louisiana – some dating back to the early days of the industry, when companies used pine logs, old rags, and scrap metal to plug wells, if they were plugged at all. This is likely an undercount, as many abandoned wells are not documented in records. Of those 186,00 wells, 23,539 – nearly 13 percent – were drilled before 1953, when the industry adopted more modern plugging standards using cement.  

Above, Sheldon Whitehouse on Insurance industry’s schizophrenic non-response to the climate crisis.

CNN:

The home insurance market is crumbling in New Orleans, leaving Alfredo Herrera with few options for coverage — and skyrocketing insurance premiums.

Herrera, 35, works in finance for a local bank. He bought his 900-square-foot home in New Orleans’ Mid-City neighborhood in 2020 for $270,000, and lives there with his partner.

In 2022, he paid $1,600 a year for home insurance. But last July, his insurer canceled his coverage, saying it was leaving Louisiana.

In the past, acquiring or keeping homeowners’ insurance didn’t present much of a problem.

But as climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather, insurers — especially those in areas most impacted by floods and fires — are raising their premiums, or pulling out altogether, impacting the affordability and availability of home and fire insurance.

Herrera shopped around for a new plan, but he struggled to find a policy. Louisiana Citizens, the insurer of last resort for property owners in the state, was out of the question. It would have cost more than $7,000 annually.

Herrera eventually found a policy with a small company in the state that charged him $4,930 annually — a 208% increase from what he paid in 2022.

“It’s a very difficult situation,” he said. He never imagined that when he bought his home, private insurance options would be this limited and the last resort insurer would be so expensive.

“We’re against the wall,” Herrera said. “There’s no competition.”

Continue reading “CNN: Home Insurance Market Crumbling”

Sander van der Linden is Professor of Social Psychology in Society in the Department of Psychology at the University of Cambridge and Director of the Cambridge Social Decision-Making Lab.

Cambridge University:

Working with Jigsaw, a unit within Google dedicated to tackling threats to open societies, a team of psychologists from the universities of Cambridge and Bristol created 90-second clips designed to familiarise users with manipulation techniques such as scapegoating and deliberate incoherence.

This “prebunking” strategy pre-emptively exposes people to tropes at the root of malicious propaganda, so they can better identify online falsehoods regardless of subject matter. 

Researchers behind the Inoculation Science project compare it to a vaccine: by giving people a “micro-dose” of misinformation in advance, it helps prevent them falling for it in future – an idea based on what social psychologist’s call “inoculation theory”.  

The findings, published in Science Advances, come from seven experiments involving a total of almost 30,000 participants – including the first “real world field study” of inoculation theory on a social media platform – and show a single viewing of a film clip increases awareness of misinformation. 

The videos introduce concepts from the “misinformation playbook”, illustrated with relatable examples from film and TV such as Family Guy or, in the case of false dichotomies, Star Wars (“Only a Sith deals in absolutes”).  

“Climate conscious” conservative writing in Newsweek, “Why Conservatives should own the climate issue” – shows why conservatives continue to lose the climate issue. That’s something that is going to hurt more and more with each passing year.
Bond, Drew Bond, that is, is apparently CEO of something called Conservative Coalition for Climate Solutions.

Drew Bond in Newsweek:

I’ll get right to the point: conservatives, if you want to “own the libs,” then own the issue that they have dominated for too long. Take the lead on good climate policy and show how free market solutions are superior to progressives’ proposals.
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For their part, liberals have come to own environmental issues. That is a problem in a two-party system, but it is also an opportunity for Republicans. I’ll say it again: if you want to “own the libs,” then own the issue that they have dominated for too long. Take the lead on good climate policy and show how your solutions are superior to theirs.

To be sure, we can and should continue to understand climate science better, and there’s much we still need to learn. But one thing we already know without a doubt is that energy and innovation are good for people and the planet.

The best solutions, and the ones conservatives can and should lead on, are based on maximizing economic freedom across the economy.

OK, so far so good, tell me more.

Bond again:

The Right can own the issue of climate change, and thus “own the libs,” by lowering taxes, lowering regulatory barriers, investing in research, fixing government failures, and accelerating American energy innovation across the board. The immediate expensing for research and development and equipment upgrades included in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act brought several environmental benefits and spurred investment and innovation in the United States. Modernizing permitting, which President Donald Trump prioritized while in office, would increase energy supplies and bring projects online faster, which helps everything from advanced nuclear energy to critical mineral mines. A return to these policies would be great for America, great for the planet, and great for people around the world.

America is already dominating in energy and innovation across many fronts. We are leading the world in energy innovation in everything from natural gas fracking and liquefied natural gas exports (which Biden sadly “paused”) to solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower, and new nuclear and AI for nuclear. We are the world’s leading innovators in construction and concrete, carbon capture and use for products and regenerative farming, and even using methane for fertilizer. The list goes on and on and on. The U.S. energy portfolio is the world’s greatest and most varied. It is one area where American greatness has never wavered.

We can all make, and keep, America great by supporting economic freedom and enjoying the environmental improvements it delivers. The best climate policies are good for people and the planet.

Because we have the best policies, conservatives have more than earned the right to own the issue. We just need to embrace it.

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Not seeing much of an understanding of the situation here, in the calls for more fracking, more LNG exports, etc.
Really sounds like business as usual Republican messaging, or am I missing something?

Headline weirdly out of synch with analyst’s bullish “highest rating” forecast for 70 percent growth in the stock.
Business press determined to talk down EVs.

The rent is too damn high.

Here’s an idea. Throw a Rent party. The New York Times reminded me of this classic.

New York Times:

Rent parties were playing out behind thousands of other closed doors in run-down Harlem buildings. Tenants would use the proceeds to pay their landlord on the first of the month, and then hopefully make it another 30 days before scrimping again.
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Rent parties like Ms. Pindar’s were bawdy, booze-soaked and offered an escape from the white gaze. Outside, there was prohibition and gawkers from Lower Manhattan. Inside, there was beer and bathtub gin. There was live music, including appearances by Duke Ellington and Fats Waller.

At rent parties, Hughes wrote, he met truckers, seamstresses and shoeshine boys.

Jeff Berardelli, Chief Meteorologist of WFLA, Tampa, has posted some useful graphs showing the comparison between storm activity in El Nino years (like the one we are just coming out of) and the complimentary opposite cycle La Nina years, which meteorologists see developing this summer.

In El Nino years, a tendency for upper level wind shear, destructive currents that tear apart storms, has a dampening effect on hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin. Even so, last summer was a very active year for storms, owing in large part to very warm sea surface temperatures.
This summer, those temps remain very warm, but the wind shear is projected to go away.
Hilarity will no doubt ensue.