This is Not Cool

Probably 6 or 7 years ago, I got an email out of the blue from a local insurance agent, well known in the industry, and a pillar of the local Republican establishment.

He had heard me on the radio and wanted to have coffee. We’ve met several times, and continue to exchange emails. He agrees that something is going on that is very concerning to his industry. Here’s a message I got from him a few years ago.

In my 30 years I have never seen anything like what is happening right now. I sit on several different advisory boards and insurance companies are scared to death about the trends they are seeing. You’re correct, it’s not just coastal areas either, which by the way are nearly impossible to insure right now. I had two house last week in Hilton Head where the premium went from $12k to over $30K and they were lucky to get the $30K. There was nothing else on the market.

The New York Times has a new piece about Home insurance emerging as an issue in the current election campaign. According to the Times,

Rising homeowners rates — driven by the fires, hurricanes and tornadoes worsened by climate change — have helped put reliably Republican states like Kansas and Florida onto the battlefield, pushed North Carolina toward the Democrats and roiled Democratic politics in California.

Insurify.com:

Severe weather and natural disasters continue to drive higher home insurance rates heading into 2026. Following four consecutive years of rising premiums, the average annual cost of home insurance will increase again in 2026, with Insurify projecting a 4% jump to $3,057 by the end of the year.

Homeowners are reducing their coverage, raising their deductibles, and shopping for different policies as premiums increase. The average annual cost has surged more than $900 since 2021. Six states saw rates rise at least 20% in the past year: Minnesota (34%), Colorado (33%), Iowa (28%), Nebraska (25%), Oklahoma (24%), and South Carolina (20%).

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Continue reading “Home Insurance Emerges as Climate Fueled Campaign Issue”

CBC:

New research investigated two massive landslides in the Mackenzie River basin that happened nearly a decade ago. 

The two landslides in question happened on the Johnson River and the Redstone River, recorded in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Researchers call them “permafrost detachment slides”, as they determined their cause stands apart from other similar events related to permafrost thaw.

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Researchers said the slides were different in character from previously observed events – in that instead of originating from the surface, downward, these slides, in relatively thin permafrost tens of meters deep, originated from the “bottom, up”.

Scientists said that severe wildfires in the area set up the conditions for the permafrost degradation, by wiping out the organic material on the surface.

Steve Kokeji, an author of the new study, told CBC, ““About 15 to 20 years after the fire, all of these larger disturbances start to occur within these old burn areas,” Kokelj said. “That’s about the time it takes for that to permeate 20 metres into the ground.”

“It’s the warming effect on permafrost in this scenario, the warming effect of fire compounding, [and], of course, the effects of a warming climate.”

Continue reading “In Canada’s North, Giant Permafrost Slides Show Climate Feedback”

Daniel Swain PhD of the University of California is one of my favorite explainers of Atmospheric physics.

I excerpted 4 minutes above from his invaluable “Office Hours” YouTube of October 13. You can view the whole thing here.

TLDR – it’s going to keep getting worse, and is already spreading up the coast, as local reports confirm. Pacific Coast Highway threatened by pounding surf..

Continue reading “Daniel Swain PhD with El Niño Update”

Some genius shit here. “Nothin’ Pleases Jesus like a Firin’ Squad.”

I learned a lot here. Watch these three videos and you’ll have a much better perspective on what is happening with water in the Southwest.

“We are not running out of water, we are running out of cheap water.”

It’s not Data Centers, sorry. Would that it were that easy.

Below, I spoke to Brad Udall, an expert on the river, a few years ago, for perspective.

Continue reading “Watch This to Understand the Colorado River Water Crisis”

Wikipedia:

The Long Beach Oil Field is a large oil field underneath the cities of Long Beach and Signal Hill, California, in the United States. Discovered in 1921, the field was enormously productive in the 1920s, with hundreds of oil derricks covering Signal Hill and adjacent parts of Long Beach; largely due to the huge output of this field, the Los Angeles Basin produced one-fifth of the nation’s oil supply during the early 1920s. In 1923 alone the field produced over 68 million barrels of oil, and in barrels produced by surface area, the field was the world’s richest. During the early stages of the field’s development, unlike most oil fields, land was leased by the square inch instead of by the acre. The field is eighth-largest by cumulative production in California, and although now largely depleted, still officially retains around 5 million barrels of recoverable oil and has produced 963 million out of 3,600 million barrels of original oil in place. 294 wells remained in operation as of the beginning of 2008, and in 2008 the field reported production of over 1.5 million barrels of oil.

PJM is the Transmission System Operator that covers the Mid Atlantic area, along with some slices of midwestern states. Expected to strain due to warm weather this week, during a time when utilities have historically had lower demand, and make plans for scheduling needed maintainence on generating units.

If that maintenance is not done, could set the stage for problems when polar vortex season arrives.

PJM:

PJM has issued a Maximum Generation Alert and Load Management Alert for Oct. 13 ahead of expected tight system conditions caused by unusually warm fall weather and planned equipment outages required for maintenance and construction.

This alert does not require any action from customers.

PJM also has a Capacity Advisory in place for Oct. 12–14 and issued a Maintenance Outage Recall for Oct. 14, in addition to an emergency order received by the DOE.

A Maximum Generation Alert notifies transmission and generation owners, who then determine if any equipment maintenance or testing may be deferred or canceled. By deferring such actions, units and transmission lines stay operational to serve demand. The alert also notifies neighboring grid operators that exports from PJM may be curtailed, a procedural step that allows them to plan accordingly.

PA Environmental Digest Blog:

Generation outages are expected to be approximately 62,000 MW through the affected period, in addition to key transmission outages both for maintenance and to allow for major transmission construction projects.

Continue reading “Emergency Alert Issued for Mid Atlantic Grid”

It’s still a beautiful world.

Plenty of work to do.

So, now they’re thinking about water?

Full disclosure I just never got the attraction of living in a Desert. I don’t get Phoenix, or Tuscon, or Las Vegas. I just don’t see how this ends well.

Now, a whole lot of people who moved to the desert and built Golf courses and fountains are starting to worry about water – and it’s probably not a great idea to build a Data center in that climate, but that’s not what’s causing the problem.

Not that long ago (July), I spoke to Global Temp expert Zeke Hausfather, and he mentioned an increased rate of warming which he quantified at .26 or .28 C per decade.

New paper has .40 C.

Nature – A recent doubling of global warming rate signals a 1.5 °C breach by 2028:

Here we analyze the latest observational temperature records through 2025 and identify a statistically significant doubling of the global warming rate during 2011–2025 (0.40 °C per decade) compared to 1971–2025 (0.20 °C per decade). Extrapolating this accelerated rate projects a crossing of the 1.5 °C threshold by 2028, nearly a decade earlier than previous estimates.

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One obvious objection would be that the period prior to this survey (pre 2011) would include the so called “pause” in global temperatures post 1998, which has been widely noted. The study period would be centered on the Big El Niño years of 2015-16, which included a dramatic jump in temperatures, so there is reason to be cautious.

In a March, 2026 conversation, Andrew Dessler asserted that a longer set of data, perhaps 30 years, would be required to make any definitive statements about an acceleration.

Continue reading “Big if True: New Paper Finds Doubling in Planet’s Rate of Warming”