$580,000,000 in oil futures moved 16 minutes before Trump announced a pause in Iran strikes.
Not after. Before.
The BBC just documented five separate instances of massive, suspiciously timed trades preceding Trump’s biggest market-moving announcements — oil futures, the tariff pause, Maduro’s capture, Iran ceasefire bets.
The platforms where anonymous accounts cashed in? Polymarket and Kalshi. Donald Trump Jr. sits on Polymarket’s advisory board and is a strategic advisor to Kalshi.
There’s even a law against this. The STOCK Act (2012) explicitly covers executive branch officials. Zero prosecutions in 14 years.
Oh, and the DOJ unit created after Watergate to prosecute exactly this kind of corruption? Trump cut it from 36 lawyers to 2 and stripped its authority to file new cases.
Above, Daniel Swain’s always worthwhile informed perspective on the upcoming El Niño. Below, sobering post from Ryan Maue, not generally known as an alarmist.
The upcoming "mega El Niño" could be the strongest since the 1877 event that wiped out 4% of the Earth's population due to heat waves, drought and pestilence.
Scientists watching every weather model update are getting "heart palpitations" ❤️ pic.twitter.com/MBsks70Dw6
What may be the greatest El Niño ever identified may have caused record-breaking droughts that helped trigger disastrous famines, likely killing more than 50 million people globally, a new study finds. Moreover, such an extreme El Niño could repeat in the future, scientists added.
Hormuz Closure has countries all over the world bailing on LNG plans. Also, they’ve realized that the US is no longer a reliable partner, having seen the treacherous, double dealing, and dishonorable way we’ve been threatening, bullying and double crossing our closest allies. No one wants any part of that. So that cabinet seat that Secretary of Energy and Fracking grifter Chris Wright paid a million dollars for is becoming less valuable every day. Laughed so damn hard reading this.
U.S. energy firms investing billions of dollars in hulking liquefied natural gas export terminals along the Gulf Coast have capitalized on an insatiable appetite for the fuel from Europe and fast-growing economies in Asia.
Now, the conflict in Iran has many of those customers vowing to go on a permanent diet.
As Asia and Europe grapple with the energy disruptioncreated by the war, countries there are scrambling to pivot away from imported fuels, throwing a wrench into the expansion plans of American energy companies and fossil fuels’ long-term outlook.
In countries where the power crunch is so dire that workweeks have been shortened, factories are closing and government rationing has been imposed, leaders are looking beyond just diversifying where they buy fuel to changing what fuels they use. Governments from Manila to Hanoi are leaning into alternatives that range from expanding coal power to endeavoring to build fleets of nuclear plants to increasing their fleets of electric vehicles, all in pursuit of cutting their foreign imports.
Farm Journal above notes that three quarters of the US is under some kind of Drought condition, from mild to severe, even as the Upper Midwest deals with extreme flooding.
This week’s Drought Monitor map:
Below, CBS report on Upper Midwest flooding – Wisconsin looks pretty bad. More rain on the way tonight, tomorrow for the same hard-hit areas.
March 2026 was the third-worst month for drought in observed history for the United States.
The only two worse months were July and August 1934, during the infamous Dust Bowl. pic.twitter.com/iBt50BW8Y9
Why batteries are like Bacon – they make everything better.
TLDR – Transmission network from Scottish wind farms are not adequate to transmit all of the produced power. Building more transmission lines is expensive and presents more difficulties. Solution: Batteries to soak up power at times of lower demand, and release it when demand rises. Falling price of batteries represents a phase change for modern grid architecture.
Energy Secretary and shameless grifter Chris Wright is left sputtering by a single simple question – paraphrasing:
You have mandated an aging coal plant in my district to stay open, which will cost ratepayers 100 million in repairs just to keep it operating. Explain.
A renewed federal order is keeping two aging Indiana coal plants running months after their planned retirement — and utilities say the price tag is quickly climbing into the hundreds of millions.
At a Tuesday hearing before the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission, NIPSCO President and Chief Operating Officer Vince Parisi said the mandate will require significant new spending to keep the aging coal units running, including major capital investments on top of day-to-day operating expenses.
“We’ll have fixed and variable operating costs… as well as any kind of capital investment,” Parisi said. “I think we’ve estimated it could be in excess of $100 million just in the investments in the units, and then operating costs on top of that.”
Above: One small dam has already failed in Northern Michigan, several larger more dangerous dams are in critical risk. Video Description: “A small private dam in Alcona County failed as heavy rain and snowmelt continue pushing rivers and impoundments beyond capacity in northern Michigan. The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy (EGLE) said it was notified Monday night, April 13 that Bucks Pond Dam near Barton City failed. Luke Trumble, chief of EGLE’s Dam Safety Unit, said the dam is a low-hazard, privately-owned homeowners association dam with limited downstream risk.”
Flood alerts as of Wednesday afternoon, April 15, , 4:44 pm
Michigan today continues to be in the grip of an extremely unusual weather pattern that has the entire state under a Flood Watch. Heavy rains and storms are staying in the forecast as floodwaters already have swamped areas across Northern Michigan.
The dangerously rising waters have prompted evacuations in some residential areas, triggered the failure of small dams, and has state and local officials closely monitoring larger dams near populated areas as high water threatens to overtop them and flood areas downstream. A handful of communities are on alert with evacuation plans in place.
Concerns have mounted for dams across Michigan as melting snow and rain stress their infrastructure, including in Bellaire where residents and businesses on the Intermediate River downstream of the Bellaire Dam were preparing to evacuate Wednesday.
The Homestead Dam, a Michigan Department of Natural Resources-owned dam on the Betsie River, is at risk for overflowing as severe thunderstorms and snowmelt raise water levels, according to the Benzie County Office of Emergency Management and National Weather Service forecasts.
The Cheboygan County Sheriff’s Office is strongly urging residents of the Black Lake area to begin preparing for a potential rise in water levels.
Residents should secure any valuables, outdoor items or debris that could be damaged or carried away by water.
Top Trump Econ Advisor: While it’s very frustrating at the pump to see what the price of gas looks like, the benefit for oil producers is significant pic.twitter.com/6LHHhsuzHa
The world’s top 100 oil and gas companies banked more than $30m every hour in unearned profit in the first month of the US-Israeli war in Iran, according to exclusive analysis for the Guardian. Saudi Aramco, Gazprom and ExxonMobil are among the biggest beneficiaries of the bonanza, meaning key opponents of climate action continue to prosper.
The conflict pushed the price of oil to an average of $100 (£74) a barrel in March, leading to estimated windfall war profits for the month of $23bn for the companies. Oil and gas supplies will take months to return to pre-war levels and the companies will make $234bn by the end of the year if the oil price continues to average $100. The analysis uses data from leading intelligence provider Rystad Energy, analysed by Global Witness.
Global power generation from fossil fuels fell in the first month since the start of the Hormuz closure, with the fall in gas-fired generation offset by large increases in solar and wind power, rather than coal.
The power generation dataset prepared for this analysis covers countries that disclose near-real-time data. The dataset covers 87% of global coal power generation and over 60% of gas-fired power generation.
Total power generation from fossil fuels in countries with near-real-time data fell 1% year-on-year, with coal-fired generation flat and gas-fired generation falling 4%. The dataset covers the world’s largest power markets: China, the U.S., the EU, and India, among others.
Seaborne coal transport volumes fell 3%, to the lowest levels since 2021. The data contradicts widespread expectations that coal power generation would rise in response to the crisis.
90% Renewable By 2035?
UK & Australia are tracking to 90% by ~2035.
Aussie RE jumped to 46.8% in 2026 thru March from 12.5% in 2015 thru March. Gain of 34.3 points in 11 years!
UK's RE surged to 53.9% in 2026 thru March from 19.3% thru March 2015. Gain of 34.6 points! pic.twitter.com/7EWR9usbS4
