Post Hormuz World Leaving Gas Behind

Countries in the developing world, Asia and Africa, that big gas developers were assuming could be locked into massive and expensive Liquified Natural Gas infrastucture, are now fleeing from dependence on that fuel.
Renewable energies, particularly solar, have been meeting the overwhelming majority of new demands globally.

Ember:

  • 2025 was the fifth consecutive year of decline in gas share in the global power mix. Although global gas generation has not yet peaked in absolute terms, its growth has slowed sharply. Between 2021 and 2025, gas generation grew at an average annual rate of 1.6%, about half the average growth rate seen between 2016 and 2020 (2.9%). Because gas grew more slowly than electricity demand, its share of global electricity generation fell from 23.9% in 2020 to 21.8% in 2025.
  • Nearly half of gas-generating economies have passed their gas power peak. By 2025, 61 out of 124 economies generating electricity from gas had passed their gas generation peak, defined in this analysis as countries where gas-fired electricity generation has remained below its historical peak for at least five consecutive years. Together, these countries accounted for around one-fifth of global gas-fired electricity generation in 2025, showing that gas declines are widespread, but the global peak still depends on a smaller group of large gas-generating economies.
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John Morales on Hurricane Prospects, and Trump Science Cuts

Above, an interview with Senior Meteorologist John Morales to discuss not only plans to dismantle critical Ocean monitoring stations, but also expectations for the upcoming Hurricane Season.

Science:

Although research has bipartisan support in the US Congress, and trust in science is above 75% across the country, the Trump administration seems as determined as ever to mortally wound the nation’s scientific enterprise. After the scientific community persuaded Congress to restore most of the president’s draconian cuts to research funding last year, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), under Russell Vought, has found new ways to circumvent the will of Congress and starve American science. At the beginning of this year, OMB dragged its feet in releasing instructions to federal agencies for how to distribute the funding appropriated by Congress, leading to lags in dispersal. Now, OMB has proposed revising the rules that govern how federal dollars are spent. The changes would inevitably lead to unlegislated reductions in funding and damage US leadership in science, both in academia and industry.

In any other administration, when Congress appropriates money for science each year, OMB’s job is to make sure that the funds are released in accordance with the law. But in Project 2025, the blueprint used by the Trump administration to overhaul the federal government according to a theory of greater executive power, Vought called for an activist OMB that serves as the “keeper of ‘commander’s intent,’” thereby moving power away from Congress.

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Colorado River at 13 Percent. Western Drought is a Crisis

Description:

About 70% of the American West is in a drought. Cities are telling residents to cut their water usage, farmers are abandoning their crops, and local officials are asking how much water is left for the millions upon millions of people who need it.

Colorado Sun:

Lake Powell, one of the Colorado River’s most important reservoirs, is set to receive 13% of its normal spring runoff, the lowest amount from upstream snowmelt on record, according to a federal forecast Thursday.

The reservoir, located on the Utah-Arizona border, helps pace the flow of water to millions of people, multibillion-dollar industries, hydropower facilities and protected environments in the immense Colorado River Basin. It is also in dire straits: As of Thursday, it held 23% of its capacity. It’s months away from extremely low water levels that would halt hydropower generation at Glen Canyon Dam. 

The expected record-low inflows won’t help. 

If the forecast is accurate, “it would be the lowest April through July volume on record for Lake Powell,” Cody Moser, a forecaster with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, said during a webinar Thursday.

The federal Colorado Basin River Forecast Center tracks conditions in the basin and prepares forecasts used by the federal government to determine how the water for 40 million people in the West should be managed.

Since Oct. 1, about 408,000 acre-feet of water has reached the reservoir. That includes water from the sudden snowmelt triggered by a record-breaking heat wave in March, Moser said.

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How Batteries, Wind and Solar are Pushing Gas out in California

I used this graph in a presentation this week.
It’s a demonstration of what cheap batteries are doing, and why the gas magnates are so freaked out about the energy transition.

Two days, separated by 5 years of battery deployment, are represented here. What you can see is that in 2021, while a considerable amount of solar was being generated, there was an issue at sundown, during the part of the day when workers come home and fire up appliances, AC and the like, when fast ramping gas generators had to come online and bridge the gap between falling solar generation and peaking demand.
Fast forward to this year, and look what batteries, and increased imports of wind energy, have done to that ramping period, and gas demand in general.
You can understand why fracking baron and Energy Secretary Chris Wright is doing his best to sabotage clean energy.

Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis:

Natural gas’ share of electricity generation in the market run by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) fell to a record low on May 16, dropping to just 3.1% of total generation. That day was not an outlier either; from May 13-17, gas’ share of daily CAISO output was less than 10%.

May is a relatively low-demand period in CAISO, which accounts for about 80% of the California electricity market. But comparing 2026 generation data through May 15 with previous years (2021and 2025) shows that the state’s long-running efforts to cut its reliance on gas-fired generation are paying off. California eliminated in-state coal generation more than a decade ago; a power plant in Utah supplying Los Angeles ended its coal use late last year.

In 2021, gas’ generation share never fell below 20% and was 40% or higher on 99 of those 135 days. In 2025, the number of high-market-share days (more than 40%) dropped sharply, to 56, but gas’ minimum daily share still never fell below 20%. This year has been a different story. There have been 68 days already when gas’ market share fell below 20%, and there has not been a single day when gas accounted for more than 50% of CAISO generation.

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The Republican Reset on Solar

Interview with Heather Reams, President and CEO of Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, a clean energy group aimed at Republicans.

Exact Solar on Substack:

What’s New: 

Four GOP House members have introduced the American Energy Dominance Act, a bill designed to revive renewable energy and efficiency tax incentives that were phased out by 2025’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

Why it matters:

The OBBBA’s jarring rollback of federal tax credits created market uncertainty in clean energy industries, stalled projects across the country, and forced almost $35 billion in in-progress projects to be cancelled. 

Representatives Brian Fitzpatrick, Mike Lawler, Max Miller, and Mike Carey partnered with North America’s Building Trades Unions to draft the legislation.

The bill removes accelerated expiration dates for commercial solar, clean hydrogen, and building efficiency tax credits to secure domestic supply chains and protect union jobs.

Unfortunately, the bill does nothing to extend or reinstate 25D, the tax credit for residential solar installations.
–
Unlikely this effort will succeed, but an election is coming.

Townhall:

As energy demand grows and costs continue to climb, many red states are adopting solar and energy storage as a practical way to lower utility costs and boost domestic manufacturing.

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Are We Screw (Wormed)?

“A challenge we thought we had beaten in the 1960s.”

Yeah, sort of like Measles, you dolt.

Weather Channel:

A flesh-eating New World screwworm was confirmed in a calf in Texas this week, news that could seriously damage the U.S. livestock industry and raise already high beef prices.

The parasitic larvae of the screwworm fly typically enter an animal through an open wound and feed on their flesh, eventually killing the animal if left untreated, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It is rare for people to contract screwworm, and they do not pose any food safety issues.

Weather and climate have kept screwworms from entering the U.S., but climate change is extending its range northward, according to the National Institutes of Health. Warmer climates would also increase cattle tick populations and their range, which would also increase the outbreak potential for screwworm.

The parasite’s presence in the U.S. could be the result of a warming climate. Screwworms are cold-sensitive — they can’t survive unless low temperatures are regularly above freezing, year-round, according to Drovers, the oldest livestock publication in the U.S. Ideal conditions for adult flies are temperatures between 77 and 86, with relative humidity between 30-70%.

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