This is Not Cool

Too Hot to Walk the Dog – Extreme Heat Days Limiting Human Activity

The number of days where extreme heat makes it too dangerously hot to walk the dog, sweep the porch and engage in other ordinary pursuits has doubled around the world over the past 75 years, according to new research.

Scientists determined that on average, those 65 and older experience a month a year when heat prevents them from routine activities. Parts of Asia, Africa, Australia and North America are becoming unlivable for senior citizens, the researchers said. Younger adults also are losing time as climate-driven heat restricts their lives for 50 hours a year.

Overall, more than a third of the global population resides in regions where heat severely affects daily life, according to the peer-reviewed paper published Tuesday in the journal Environmental Research: Health.

While previous research has shown the impact of extreme heat on human health, authors of the new study said it’s the first to document the consequences of rising temperatures on everyday life.

“Extreme heat isn’t just affecting our ability to survive or work physically demanding jobs, but also just to do simple, light, daily tasks,” said Luke Parsons, a climate scientist at nonprofit environmental organization the Nature Conservancy and lead author of the paper.

Most Intense Heatwave in History Due in Southwestern US

Snowpacks low across the west, no miracle March snow fall in prospect.

Colin McCarthy on X:

It’s not a stretch to say that what’s bearing down on the Western United States over the next ten days will be the most extreme March heatwave the region has ever seen in US history, not just in intensity, but in duration.

This isn’t a brief warm spell. This is an extended, unprecedented siege of heat arriving months ahead of schedule.

The amount of territory that will be covered by a record-strong high-pressure ridge or “heat dome” next week is astonishing. The entire region highlighted in pink will experience its strongest high pressure ridge on record for this time of year.

“They’re Not Out of Missiles” – Iran Assessment are Grim

Are we tired of winning?

Two assessments of the current war for hydrocarbons.
Above, retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor, former advisor to the Secretary of Defense, under the last Trump regime, and a frequent Fox News guest, who is definitely conservative, but seems rational, gives an assessment of Iran’s capabilities – making me think he will not be on Fox News again any time soon.

Below, further reactions from former Obama officials.

DOE: Fuel Prices Will Stay High Long Term

Financial Times (gift link):

The US energy department has warned petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to recede to prewar levels until mid-2027 at the earliest, ratcheting up costs for industries from trucking and farming to airlines and retailers. Official figures released on Tuesday show US petrol prices rose 19 per cent over the past two weeks to $3.50 a gallon as the Middle East conflict throttled energy supplies, while diesel jumped 28 per cent to $4.86 a gallon.

Petrol is not forecast to drop back below its $2.94 per gallon pre-conflict level before the end of 2027, according to the Energy Information Administration, the energy department’s statistics arm. Diesel — the lifeblood of American industry — will not fall below the $3.81 per gallon it sat at two weeks ago until the middle of next year.

The shift threatens to push up costs for industry, which in turn will ratchet up prices for consumers with far-reaching inflationary impacts for the world’s largest economy. It will also pile pressure on Donald Trump, who campaigned for the presidency in 2024 on a platform to slash petrol and energy costs. Prices at the pump are now higher than at any time during his two terms in office.

“We’ve got a lot of costs moving their way through the system,” said Tom Kloza, an independent oil analyst. “We’re looking at some really scary inflation ratings — pervasive inflation throughout the country.”

The rise in the price of refined fuel products in the US comes as Iran’s threats to strike ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz have all but halted maritime traffic in an artery through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply flows.

Gang that Can’t Tweet Strait: No US Escort for Tankers thru Hormuz

Grifter Energy Secretary Chris Wright hurriedly deletes misleading tweet.

Wall Street Journal:

For days, the global oil market has swung wildly while traders from New York to London to Singapore have watched footage of drones and missiles flying across the Middle East. Tuesday’s selloff was sparked in part by a social-media post.

A plunge in oil prices intensified in the early afternoon after Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on X that “The U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets.” The prospect of a prolonged energy shock momentarily dimmed. Futures for oil, diesel and gasoline slid. Stocks jumped.

But the message vanished within minutes, leaving investors the world over struggling to see through the fog of war emanating from the Trump administration itself.

U.S. officials soon after said that the military isn’t currently escorting commercial ships through one of the world’s chokepoints for oil and natural gas.

“A video clip was deleted from Secretary Wright’s official X account after it was determined to be incorrectly captioned by Department of Energy staff,” an agency spokesperson said. The administration is reviewing other options to resume tanker traffic, the spokesperson added, “including the potential for our Navy to escort tankers.”

PBS Newshour on Powering Data Centers

Iran Mines Hormuz. US Navy Too Busy to Help – Sorry Suckers

Suck it up. Sacrifice. Freedom isn’t free. We’ve got brown people to bomb, and pedophilia to distract you from.
Yadda yada.

CNN:

Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue.

The mining is not extensive yet, with a few dozen having been laid in recent days, the sources said. But Iran still retains upward of 80% to 90% of its small boats and mine layers, one of the sources said, so its forces could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which now effectively controls the strait along with Iran’s traditional navy, has the capability to deploy a “gauntlet” of dispersed mine-laying craft, explosive-laden boats and shore-based missile batteries, CNN has reported.

President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday that “if Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!”

Powering Data Centers Behind the Meter Might Not Be All That Easy

I’m struggling to get up a very steep learning curve on the subject of Data Centers, specifically the mammoth hyper scale AI based centers that are now being sited around the country, and consume energy and water on the scale of small cities.

To get oriented on the macro scale, I’m listening to Jigar Shah, who is a clean energy expert, investor, Founder of SunEdison, and President of Generate Capital, which invests in clean energy. Formerly director of the Department of Energy Loans Program Office, where he oversaw billions of dollars in clean energy investment.

I met Jigar some years ago at a conference in DC, and have always been more than impressed with a his grasp of the technology and economics of clean energy.

He is the expert’s expert in this area. I’ve taken the liberty of excerpting from two podcasts, one in which he is one of a panel of experts, Open Circuit, from Latitude Media, and the other, Energy Empire, which is his own vehicle.

The gist is – plans to power data centers with massive new natural gas turbines are half baked due to constraints on natural gas pipeline infrastructure – which takes years to build, if it can be permitted at all.

Below, Jigar’s guest is an expert on powering data centers – Tim Hade, Founder of Scale Microgrids, with deep experience in industrial Power systems
Hade says that many facilities that have been announced will simply not be built.

Solar Power Surging in Midwest

Michigan Public Radio:

A new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis has found that despite Trump administration efforts to push coal and natural gas, renewables are still gaining market share at a “blistering” pace — especially in Michigan and the Midwest.

That’s particularly true when it comes to solar power. Michigan is served by part of the national grid called the Midwest Independent System Operator, or MISO. The report says that as recently as 2023, solar provided barely 1% of the system’s power.

But energy analyst and report coauthor Dennis Wamsted said that number had grown to 4.5% last year. He says that’s largely due to recent major improvements in battery storage technology that lets utilities capture and distribute renewable power as needed.

“It’s like a secret sauce,” Wamsted said. “You put them together and you have a competitor for any kind of coal or natural gas plant, because you now have dispatchable renewable power.”

Wamsted said solar’s growth trajectory in MISO mirrors that of Texas a decade ago. Texas is now the largest solar market in the U.S. Wamsted said MISO won’t necessarily see the same level of explosive growth, but “what it shows is that really fast growth is possible, and you can start to become a very significant part of the grid pretty quickly.”

Trump Admin Just Realized a Mid East War Might Impact Energy Prices

Wall Street Journal:

The national average price of regular unleaded gasoline was $3.48 a gallon as of Monday, up more than 15% since the start of the Iran conflict, according to OPIS. Automakers are racing to gauge the potential effect on sales, which have started slowly so far this year with buyers continuing to fret over record new-car prices and still-high interest rates.

Brian Irwin, leader of the automotive-consulting practice at Alvarez & Marsal, said gas prices at these levels aren’t historically high, but the rate of their rise is noteworthy.

“It is the sudden and rapid changes in price that impact consumer buying behaviors,” Irwin said.

For many automakers, it is a headache they didn’t need after spending a year winding back plans to roll out new electric vehicles.

Newly freed from federal mandates to churn out fuel-efficient vehicles, General Motors, Ford Motor and Jeep-Ram parent Stellantis last year slashed production of EVs while doubling down on big trucks and powerful engines. Detroit’s automakers alone announced more than $50 billion in combined write-downs over scrapped EV plans.

Now, Wall Street analysts and investors are worried whether Detroit’s automakers and their truck-heavy lineups can weather this storm. Shares of Ford are down 13% since the war started, while GM has lost 5%.

Paul Krugman:

Donald Trump talked a lot of nonsense about energy during the 2024 campaign. But in fairness, some of the underlying premises behind “drill, baby, drill” were accepted by many people. At the very least, it was widely presumed that U.S. self-sufficiency in oil would protect America from disruptions in oil supplies overseas.