Big if True: New Paper Finds Doubling in Planet’s Rate of Warming

Not that long ago (July), I spoke to Global Temp expert Zeke Hausfather, and he mentioned an increased rate of warming which he quantified at .26 or .28 C per decade.

New paper has .40 C.

Nature – A recent doubling of global warming rate signals a 1.5 °C breach by 2028:

Here we analyze the latest observational temperature records through 2025 and identify a statistically significant doubling of the global warming rate during 2011–2025 (0.40 °C per decade) compared to 1971–2025 (0.20 °C per decade). Extrapolating this accelerated rate projects a crossing of the 1.5 °C threshold by 2028, nearly a decade earlier than previous estimates.

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One obvious objection would be that the period prior to this survey (pre 2011) would include the so called “pause” in global temperatures post 1998, which has been widely noted. The study period would be centered on the Big El Niño years of 2015-16, which included a dramatic jump in temperatures, so there is reason to be cautious.

In a March, 2026 conversation, Andrew Dessler asserted that a longer set of data, perhaps 30 years, would be required to make any definitive statements about an acceleration.

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Nepal Hit By Another Flash Flood

Associated Press confirmed the reports, saying “Residents along the Budhi Gandaki River in north central Nepal evacuated on Sunday as flash flooding destroyed homes and other structures in the area.”

BBC reported that, “it is believed that the flood was caused by a landslide upstream of the Budhi Gandaki River in the Gorkha district.”

How Much of Climate Denial is a Russian Op?

Above, Republican pollster Frank Luntz posts about recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian Data Centers, and the effect on internet bot accounts. Here, I’m posting a number of the “X” posts following this and noting the effects on different slices of the Right Wing messaging machine in the US and Europe.

None of this should come as any surprise.

UPDATE: On edit, I’ve continue to track these threads, and as you can see as you read to the bottom, the number of well known, credible, well informed, and thoughtful people posting on this is extremely impressive and compelling.

Below, AfD (Alternative for Deutshland) party is a hive of climate denial and clean energy opposition.

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California Coasts Melting Before Perfect Storm of Climate and El Niño

Unprecedented high tidal events have caused states of emergency to be declared in Southern California. The high water is being driven by a combination of El Niño-warmed ocean waters, underground Kelvin waves, heavy southerly swells, and seasonal high-tide cycles.

Reports from several sources indicate that coastal communities make-shift defenses against higher tides are not holding.

In some cases, efforts to hold back the ocean waters have been not just ineffective, but counterproductive.

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Flanked by Wind Turbines, Abdul Receives Farm Endorsement

I was lucky enough that Bob Thompson, President of the Michigan Farmer’s Union, invited me to take part in a small event in rural Michigan where Senate candidate Abdul El Sayed got the Farmer’s Union endorsement, and, flanked by tractors, cornfield, and wind turbines, held a press conference on Ag issues with former long time Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow, a major champion for Farmers.

I pulled some of the attending farmers aside to ask them about how Clean energy plays in to the local farm economy.

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When There’s Too Much Clean Energy – An AI Answer

It’s called “curtailment”. Explainer above.

When there is more than enough energy on the grid, and not enough transmission lines to carry it away, or batteries to store it, what happens is generation gets shut down, “curtailed”, in the language of the industry.

Obviously one near term solution is more batteries, but these sometimes get bogged down in permitting. Transmission lines are famously slow to get approval.

One AI company has a suggestion. Onsite, modular AI-grade processing units, that are interconnected with networks of similar units to make larger “virtual” data centers.

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El Niño Giving a Preview of a Climate Clobbered Coast

“I don’t think I’ve ever seen the water coming off the beach at this kind of level.. definitely starting to damage the properties out here..”

No mention of climate change, as an El Niño stoked Kelvin wave raises sea level another 6 inches to a foot on top of existing sea level rise. The tone of the report is “Oh well, it’s a beach town so this stuff will happen…”

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Will New Hurricane Spike Gas Prices Again?

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Running Out of Options to Keep Oil Prices Down

Oil markets starting to get it that the Strait of Hormuz crunch is not just a transient inconvenience.

Above, market expert Jeff Currie outlines the pressure points in the market that are now responding.

President Trump’s Executive order to allow Truckers access to “off road” grade Dyed Diesel, will not have much positive effect.

New reporting from Bloomberg points out that, although some oil is moving from the Persian Gulf, the cost of operation has skyrocketed.

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