This is Not Cool

US Gas barons have been celebrating the death and destruction in the Middle East, as short term outlook is favorable for US LNG exporters.
That may not be a permanent situation.

Wall Street Journal:

Stocks of U.S. liquefied-natural-gas companies have been on a tear, as higher gas prices will juice profits. But investors are ignoring the flip side of the Iran crisis: High prices are likely to rewire demand in ways that hurt the industry’s expansion plans. 

LNG has the same chokepoint as oil. Around a fifth of global supply is trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz, and most of this LNG comes from a single Qatari facility that has been struck by Iranian missiles. Qatar says it will take up to five years to repair damage to the Ras Laffan site, which will delay how soon flows go back to normal and keep global prices high. 

This is good for U.S. LNG producers whose supplies are still flowing. Shares in Venture Global, which has higher exposure to surging spot prices, have risen 74% since the start of the war. Cheniere Energy LNG , which has more of its supply locked into long-term contracts, is up 25%.

But higher-for-longer prices muddy the long-term outlook for LNG. Exports of the fuel are marketed around the world as affordable and helpful for energy security. The U.S. Department of Energy has even referred to the fuel as “molecules of U.S. freedom.” 

Continue reading “War a Blow to LNG’s “Freedom Molecules” Image”

In the America I grew up in, we were, at least, we liked to think, the Good Guys.
Now, we have gone full Bad Guy. MAGA seems to like that idea.
Oil corrupts.

Wall Street Journal:

President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.

In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said. 

There are also military options the president could decide on, but they aren’t his immediate priority, they said.

Trump on Tuesday morning urged other countries to launch their own operation to wrest control of the strait from Iran, blaming countries like the U.K. for not joining the U.S.-Israeli mission against the Islamic Republic.

“Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” Trump posted on his Truth Social network. “Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

Continue reading “Trump: If You Want Oil, Go and Take it Yourself”

Description:
Eric Nuttall, senior portfolio manager at Nine Point, said that oil disruption from war with Iran is projected to be worse than during the COVID pandemic as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Nuttall said that the oil companies are quickly working their way through the buffer supply of oil and expects that it will lead to physical shortages of oil barrels.

Below, a Wharton School professor: “I am more concerned than the average.”

Not just high prices, actual shortages of critical oil and gas supplies.

Continue reading ““The Level of Complacency is Astounding”- Oil Experts Predict Big Shocks”

Fossil fuel apologists and shills have been pantsed by reality as the attack on Iran and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz starkly revealed the national security vulnerability of a fossil fuel based economy.

OilPrice:

Europe has made significant progress weaning itself off of Russian oil and gas imports and building up its own energy supply chains. But the European Union still relies on imports for more than half of its energy needs, leaving it achingly vulnerable to the current energy crisis stemming from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the war that the United States and Israel are waging in Iran. 

But while most of Europe’s major economies are scrambling to mitigate the damage of skyrocketing energy prices, one nation is feeling pretty good about its prospects. Spain could be sitting pretty thanks to its enormous investment in solar energy in recent years – but as much as Spain is turning into a role model for autonomy and resilience through clean energy, it may not be a formula for success in other European nations.

“Spain can demonstrate examples of how investing in renewable energy helps our households experience a lower impact from gas price increases,” Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of Spain said in Brussels, the seat of the European Commission, on Thursday. At present, renewables represent almost 60 percent of Spain’s energy mix. 

“Last Saturday, the price per megawatt-hour of electricity in Spain was €14, while in Italy, Germany and France, consumers were paying over €100,” Sánchez went on to say. “That difference in price was not the result of random luck, but rather because this government has spent the last eight years working to be at the forefront of renewable energy deployment.”

—

Below, fossil fuel shill Michael Shellenberger scrambling to cover his sorry ass.

We should have spent more on green energy, say the media. No, we shouldn't have. The $2 trillion we spent did nothing to prevent the energy crisis and may even have caused it. pic.twitter.com/HsmdRUJkKC

— Michael Shellenberger (@shellenberger) March 29, 2026

Continue reading “Fossil Shills CYA as War Shines Light on Gas Security”

Bloomberg:

The biggest oil supply shock in history has reached the one-month mark. Prices have surged, growth forecasts are being cut worldwide, and shortages are emerging across Asia, from Thailand to Pakistan.

But the energy industry is warning that the crisis is only beginning.

In conversations with more than three dozen oil and gas traders, executives, brokers, shippers and advisers over the last week, one message was repeated over and over: The world still hasn’t grasped the severity of the situation. Many drew parallels with the 1970s oil shock, warning the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is threatening an even bigger crisis. Fuel crunches hitting Asia will soon start spreading west, they said. Europe is likely to face surging prices to secure cargoes and is at risk of diesel shortages in the coming weeks.

Yahoo:

Oil prices could hit $200 per barrel if the war in Iran persists through the end of June, according to strategists from Macquarie Group.

If the war were to stretch well into summer, the strategists wrote in a client note on Wednesday, prices would need to move high enough to “destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,” likely requiring Brent crude prices above $200 per barrel and pushing US gasoline prices up to roughly $7 per gallon.

Continue reading “It’s Worse than You Think”

Jason Box has an update on arctic changes from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program, which is a project of the Arctic Council.

Starts with a bunch of very small graphs, but don’t get discouraged, he focuses on each one full screen as the talk goes on. Less than 20 minutes and a thorough, if sobering, update.

We’re about to send young soldiers into a battlefield that they are as ill prepared for as the mounted cavalry regiments that charged machine gun nests in World War I.
The world leaders in drone warfare are the Ukrainians, but Iran has been supplying, modifying and improving their own drones, with Russian help, for at least half a decade. Maybe we should stop insulting Kyiv, and start learning from them.
Fox News report. This realization is slowly sinking into American media.

PBS Newshour below.

Continue reading “Drones Warfare is a Paradigm Shift that the US has Been Sleeping On”

Climate change has some say in this fight.

From the Arizona Republic.

“I’ve had an old rancher friend tell me once, …if you ever sell off your cattle with the intention of starting up again…it never happens.”

Washington Post:

Wildfires are ripping across the Great Plains, and other flare-ups are popping up in Arizona and Colorado remarkably early in the season. Firefighters and experts are watching these giant red splotches of burning forest and grasslands with alarm, warning that the timing, ingredients fueling their startling growth, and what they signal about the fire season ahead is a recipe for concern — perhaps signaling an expanding frontier for fire risk in broader patches of the western half of the United States.

“To sum it up,” Pete Curran, a staff meteorologist for Watch Duty, a nonprofit that tracks wildfires live and sends updates to users in real time, and former captain at the Orange County Fire Authority, put it bluntly: “We are scared s—less.”

“To have any fire that goes hundreds of thousands of acres in a day anywhere is very unusual at any time of the year, let alone in mid-March,” he added about the blazes in Nebraska. “It got everyone’s attention.”

Many fire-prone parts of the country did not get a real, substantial winter, one that typically leaves mountains and soil with a solid snowpack to help cushion the transition into unrelenting summer heat. Combine that with the kind of dry cold fronts that brought powerful fire-igniting winds in late February in the Oklahoma Panhandle and southern Kansas; an unprecedented heat dome parked over a slew of states from California to the Great Plains that brought the country’s highest-ever March temperature; and wildfire crews already stretched thin. Meteorologists, climate scientists and firefighters who monitor such activity closely are already calculating how they can spread their resources across regions if these kinds of fires begin to pop off simultaneously.

Continue reading “Nebraska Fires an Ill Omen”