El Niño Hurricane Drought not the Coup Climate Deniers Think

Great find by Zeke Hausfather.
The current Hurricane drought in the North Atlantic is hardly any refutation of climate change.
The Pacific, where a large El Niño event is playing out, has been extremely active, at one point in recent weeks 3 large storms were stretching across the eastern Pacific.

NASA, September 1, 2026:

When hurricane forecasters released their seasonal outlooks in spring 2026, the El Niñobrewing in the Pacific contributed to predictions of below-normal activity in the Atlantic basinbut above-normal activity in the northeastern and central Pacific basins. In early September, near the climatological peak of hurricane season, those spring outlooks were on target, with the eastern Pacific buzzing with activity and the Atlantic notably quiet.

As of September 3, the Northeast Pacific had produced 15 named storms and six hurricanes, well above the norm for that point in the season. The Atlantic basin, meanwhile, laboring under unfavorable wind shear conditions, had produced just five named storms and no hurricanes. El Niño typically enhances hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific basins because of the unusually warm water temperatures it brings to those parts of the ocean. It tends to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin by shifting large-scale circulation patterns in a way that makes it harder to sustain storms there.

Another science denial meme has been that legislation passed against cloud seeding has lead to the dearth of hurricanes.
Also nonsense.

AFP FactCheck:

A strong El Niño event has led to a quiet start to the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. But on social media, posts are ignoring the natural cycle, lauding controversial bills that ban weather modification for the lack of storms in Florida. Scientists have repeatedly said technology capable of creating or steering hurricanes does not exist and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration told AFP that the slow season resulted from meteorological factors forecast months ahead.

“Florida bans cloud seeding. Florida stops getting hurricanes,” a September 13 post on X says, resharing news coverage of the lack of hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin so far in 2026.

Others — including White House accounts — gave credit to US President Donald Trump for the lack of hurricanes.

“Cloud seeding in the USA was defunded under trump and now (e) don’t get hurricanes in the south,” a September 15 post said.

Continue reading “El Niño Hurricane Drought not the Coup Climate Deniers Think”

Music Break: CW McCall – Convoy

Truckers planning a strike, allegedly.
They have the power to make things pretty difficult.

Yahoo:

  • Social media users alleged in September 2026 that U.S. truckers planned to strike over high fuel costs beginning on Oct. 1, leading to food and supply chain shortages.
  • There was no evidence to support this unfounded rumor.
  • Searches indicated the claim largely spread because of a video one social media user originally posted on Sept. 15. Other users then reposted his clip without first looking for credible evidence.
  • A spokesperson for the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association said they had no knowledge of an upcoming strike. We also emailed the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the man from the video, and will update this article if we receive more information.
Continue reading “Music Break: CW McCall – Convoy”

How Long Will the Saudi Pipeline be Shut?

AJ Signal on X:

𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗫 𝗦𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗦𝗮𝘂𝗱𝗶 𝗔𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗮’𝘀 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗕𝗲 𝗙𝗶𝘅𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 “𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀”. 𝗜 𝗛𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘀. 𝗧𝗿𝘆 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀. First, let me say plainly that I love the desert and the Arab cultures. But it does shape a timeline the media does not understand because they are talking about something they have never experienced. Lots of people on

@X are saying the Saudi East-West pipeline and its pumping stations will be back online in days!?! I have worked these deserts, in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East, and that is not how it goes. Even if it is “Expedited”, you are still looking at a month at the very least, and realistically one to three. You have to first understand what the work actually is.
This is not a “gas station attendant” tightening a few bolts or replacing a motor. A pumping station hit by a ballistic missile has to be completely demolished, cleared, re-engineered and rebuilt, from the ground and concrete upwards, often with newer technology because the stations are decades old anyways and the original parts no longer exist.

That means engineering, contractors, subcontractors and sub-subcontractors, each waiting on the one below them, each relying on a supply chain that is nothing like the robust, on-time machine people imagine in Germany or Norway or the West.

Continue reading “How Long Will the Saudi Pipeline be Shut?”

Jaron Lanier on the Religion of AI

Massive demerits to Bernie Sanders for lending credibility to the fascist Steve Bannon. The two collaborated on a AI conference the other day.
Small credit, they let an actually knowledgeable person speak, above.

NPR:

Left-wing socialist Bernie Sanders and MAGA strategist Steve Bannon took to the same stage on Tuesday to rail against the AI industry and its leadership, in a sign of how spiraling worries over the rapidly advancing technology are upending political alliances. Still, the pair showed little sign of agreement over how the technology should be regulated.

Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont, and Bannon, a former Trump White House adviser, both appeared at the “Pro-Human Assembly” on Tuesday, alongside a diverse set of speakers calling for curbs on AI development.

Speaking to nearly 300 people packed into a Washington, D.C., ballroom, Sanders raised concerns about AI surpassing human intelligence and escaping human control. He said he will be introducing legislation to permanently ban the development of “superintelligent” AI, with Congressman Greg Casar, D-Texas, next week.

What is a Kelvin Wave? California is About to Find Out

Above, local California station has coverage of one way in which El Niño will exert strong effects on the state, including Coastal Flooding, which is already underway.
It’s called a Coastaly Trapped Kelvin Wave, and the physics behind it are fascinating.
If you’re interested, Daniel Swain had a really great discussion of this in his super valuable “Office Hours” YouTube session a few weeks ago, which I’ve excerpted here. The full length session is at this link, and worth your time.

Here’s the Kelvin wave explainer, about 10 minutes. Get coffee.

Continue reading “What is a Kelvin Wave? California is About to Find Out”

Where Did Venezuelan Bucks Go? Congress says “Show Us the Money.”

I don’t steal nearly enough material from Thom Hartmann.

So much Trumpian corruption has simply slipped down the memory hole because the zone is so flooded. Glad to see Rep. Casten get after Secretary Bessent here, but the scope of this criminality is just appalling.

Hartmann Report:

At any other time in American history, it would end the career of somebody like Scott Bessent, our limited-intelligence Treasury Secretary. It came out yesterday when Illinois Congressman Sean Casten was questioning him about the “billions of dollars” that Trump keeps claiming America is “getting” from selling Venezuelan oil. 

Bessent agreed with Trump, saying the oil and oil money we’ve seized from that country is “one of the largest assets to ever go on the U.S. balance sheet.” Billions and billions of dollars.

So Casten asked him a simple question: Can you tell us who controls that money and where it is? Can you confirm “whether or not those [funds] are flowing to U.S. persons?”

Bessent’s answer was a shocking single word: “No.” He ain’t talkin…

Did Trump take the oil and the money from the oil? Bessent refuses to say. Trump refuses to say. Nobody, in fact, in the Trump regime will tell us where that money is or who controls it or even who’s making the money accrued on its interest. 

Here’s what we do know:

Three days after Trump kidnapped President Maduro and his wife, he went on his Nazi-infested social media site and wrote that Venezuela’s oil revenues would be controlled by him personally “as President of the United States.” 

Three days after that, he signed an executive order declaring a “national emergency” involving that oil so no court or creditor could touch the money, screwing the bondholders and oil companies to which Venezuela owed roughly $150 billion. 

Then Trump started selling the oil we’d seized from Venezuela. The first load, according to Reuters and Semafor, went to commodity trading companies Vitol and Trafigura for about $500 million, groups that the Washington Post said both carry histories of bribery schemes tied to oil sales.

Continue reading “Where Did Venezuelan Bucks Go? Congress says “Show Us the Money.””

How Likely is an AI Built Pandemic?

David Bellamy is an Infrastructure Engineer for agentic training and a Harvard PhD Statistician, that I follow on X.
I hope he doesn’t mind that I quote him verbatim here.

David Bellamy on X:

I must be among an extremely small group of people (n=1?) that have both 1) trained a frontier LLM and 2) designed and synthesized custom viruses in a lab with my own two hands.

And I think that the takes on AI killing us all by creating dangerous viruses is total bogus.
Could an LLM propose a viral genome to synthesize? Sure. Could it be synthesize-able? Sure. Could it be infectious? Sure, it could just be a replica or a slight modification of a viral genome we already know.

This really isn’t the bottleneck to creating dangerous viruses. The bottleneck is in the physical process of synthesizing a virus and the equipment/goods needed to do so.
Designing a virus that can evade all forms of pandemic counterdefense is not something that a ‘genius in a datacenter’ can do. This is something that requires contact with the physical world and iteration.
Let me steelman the fearmongering as much as I can. Imagine a ‘fully automated’ viral synthesis laboratory. I’m talking automated freezers, automated cell culture room, the whole nine yards. This would be an extremely expensive lab – >>$100M. And there is no such thing as 1 lab that can synthesize all conceivable viruses. But let’s put practical constraint aside. Let’s suppose this hypothetical lab is built to synthesize the ‘most dangerous types’ of viruses known.

Continue reading “How Likely is an AI Built Pandemic?”

Time for an “I, Robot” Sequel?

The Three Laws of Robots, presented to be from the fictional “Handbook of Robotics, 56th Edition, 2058 A.D.” by Isaac Asimov, are:

  1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
  2. A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
  3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law

—
Recent events have made the 2004 Will Smith sci-fi thriller “I, Robot” a stealth hit on streaming.

There should probably be a corollary list for Action stars, –

“I will not stride on to the stage and slap the shit out of the MC at an Academy Award show.”

Runners Face Waist Deep Water

The New Normal is Nothing is Normal anymore.

New York Times:

A half-marathon race on Sunday in Paramus, N.J., nearly turned disastrous, as heavy rainfall flooded parts of the course and forced runners to wade through several feet of water.

No injuries were reported, but several runners posted videos to social media showing them traversing knee-deep waters throughout the course at Saddle River Park. The entire area had been placed under a flash flood warning on Sunday, and the organization behind the race, Racefaster, was criticized for going forward with the event despite those warnings.

Racefaster did not respond to a request for comment on Monday.

The race was supposed to start at 8 a.m., but organizers on Saturday opted to delay the half-marathon by two hours.

Samantha Spitaletta, a Bloomfield, N.J., resident who has run dozens of half-marathons, said it was already raining heavily when the race started. She said an organizer informed the runners to be aware of “ankle-deep water” in an early section of the course.

Continue reading “Runners Face Waist Deep Water”

Good News! AI Dangers are a Hoax, Like Climate Change!

BBC:

US President Donald Trump has said fears about the safety of artificial intelligence (AI) are a “hoax”, as he criticised calls to have more guardrails in place for the fast-moving technology.

It comes after Jack Clark, co-founder of AI giant Anthropic, told the BBCthat a “kill switch” that can be checked by a third party may need to be mandatory for the industry.

Clark’s comments followed warnings about the risks the technology poses to humanity that have been raised in recent days by several executives and staff at leading AI firms.

Those concerns triggered a selloff in tech firms’ shares as investors weighed the impact of a potential slowdown in the multi-billion dollar development of AI.

In a series of social media posts, the US president compared warnings about AI to the “Global Warming Scam” which, he said, was “being perpetrated by the Radical Left Dumocrats”.

Trump also called himself “the Hoax Buster”, likening concerns about the safety of the technology to what he called “the RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA HOAX”.

Continue reading “Good News! AI Dangers are a Hoax, Like Climate Change!”