This is Not Cool

We’ve heard for years that the Upper Great Lakes area, where I live, could be a “climate haven”, based on plentiful water supplies, and purportedly, milder weather extremes.
But now, two years in a row, late season ice storms have battered northern Michigan, disrupting electric transmission, and heavily damaging trees and forests, leaving behind broken trees, and trash on the forest floor, that could set the stage for fires when the hotter weather arrives.
I was recently in Gaylord, near the northern tip of Michigan’s mitten, to MC a remembrance of last year’s storm, where we heard from more than a dozen survivors who told stories of isolation and survival when power went down for weeks over a huge area of both peninsulas.

This past weekend’s storm dumped 2 to 4 feet of snow across the region, where the lakes which would historically be iced over at this time of year, were open water, contributing to a “lake effect” amplification.

Below, Detroit station interview with a Michigan DNR forester on the impacts of last year’s storm.

Continue reading “Concerning Pattern in Upper Great Lakes Storms”

On my queue for this week.

Guardian:

We’re given a quick history of how plastics became more problematic when it was found that they could be made cheaply from fossil fuels, how ubiquitous those plastics now are, and how the pollution caused by making and disposing of them makes the material an environmental catastrophe before microplastics are even considered. We hear how petrochemical companies have spun the public myths about how easy it is to recycle plastics, while using their power and wealth to compromise governments’ ability to keep citizens safe: there is an extraordinary archive clip of a 2011 Senate committee hearing in which John Kerry forces a guy from the federal regulator, the Food and Drug Administration, to admit that its data on the toxicity of plastics comes from the manufacturers themselves. In terms of harms that were recognised and then largely overcome, comparisons are made with leaded petrol and tobacco, the difference here being that nowhere near enough harm reduction has taken place.

Above, interview with David Fickling, shedding some light on what the world is learning from the current shutdown of 20 percent of the world’s Liquified Natural Gas exports, a good part of which was destined for China.
Fickling points out that the vision of gas as the “bridge fuel” to renewable energy and nuclear power is flawed, due to the now-demonstrable vulnerability.
I’ve been following this narrative, as a lot of power players are following events to gauge the wisdom of future long term gas contracts. “Long Term” is a relative idea for gas, because it is historically volatile, and not usually contracted in more than 5 year blocks – as opposed to solar and wind, where the fuel cost is reliably stable (zero) in perpetuity.
A number of signs, some documented by recent posts on this page, indicate that the brave new world of LNG envisioned by grifting fracking millionaire and Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, may be bottled up in, or even sunk to the bottom of, the Strait of Hormuz.

David Fickling in Bloomberg:

Gas boilers, electric heaters, heat pumps, and the now-banned coal all have different costs and benefits. Installation expenses are highest for heat pumps and gas boilers, lowest for electric heaters, and free for anyone feeding their old domestic stove with firewood or illegal coal. Fuel costs are highest for gas and electric heaters, lower for coal, and lowest of all for heat pumps. 

The mistake in Hebei was treating gas as a cheap option. Upfront costs for heat pumps are only about 20% higher than for gas boilers. For a local government being ordered to subsidize the installation of millions of the devices, however, that can quickly add up. As a result, many opted for gas instead.

Operating costs, meanwhile, get paid by households, and that’s where the benefits of clean power really show up. You can get a million British thermal units of heat output, roughly enough to warm a small home for two days, for about $5 of electricity if using a heat pump, compared to $10 using coal and $15 for gas.1 That’s not even counting the health benefits to households from reduced pollution and living in less icy homes, let alone the climate cost.

Continue reading “Big Buyers Having to Rethink LNG”

Conservative thought leaders have taken a look at the realities of deploying new generation, vital for their AI initiatives, and recognized the imperative to deploy clean energy – solar at least.

Polling above shows broad support among Trump voters for solar – one wonders if the numbers would be even stronger if the poll was taken today in light of the ongoing war.

Conservative Energy Network:

The global race to lead in artificial intelligence is often framed as a battle over chips, algorithms, and computing power. But behind every data center and advanced processor sits something far more fundamental: electricity.

Artificial intelligence requires enormous amounts of electricity. Data centers that support AI applications must run continuously, consuming electricity at levels that rival small cities. As the United States invests in AI, advanced manufacturing, and the reshoring of critical industries, electricity demand is expected to grow at levels not seen in decades.

That reality has major implications for American energy policy. If the United States wants to remain the world’s leading economic and technological power, we must ensure that the energy system supporting that growth is reliable, affordable, and most importantly – abundant.

Conservative commentators on X are increasingly drawing attention to this. Unfortunately, while America is debating everything, China is building everything. Over the last decade, Beijing has rapidly expanded its electricity generation across virtually every resource category, from coal and nuclear to wind and solar. Their strategy is simple: build enough power to support industrial growth and technological leadership.

Fortunately, American voters appear to recognize what is at stake. A recent poll conducted by former Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway found that conservative voters overwhelmingly support expanding American energy production. The survey, conducted across key states including Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and Texas, found that 75 percent of Republican voters support solar energy, while more than 80 percent are concerned about the risk of rolling blackouts due to electricity shortages.

American Council on Renewable Energy:

We got to hear a deep dive from polling expert Kellyanne Conway about her recent survey that shows 83% of Americans think solar is essential to U.S. energy security. Conway explained a critical point in her polling strategy: When you give Americans objective data, they will share what matters most to them. She said that Americans are motivated by affordability, reliability, and security – whether that’s job security, energy security, or national security.

Continue reading “Conservatives Warm to Solar Power”

A Modest Proposal – Essay by Jonathan Swift:

A Modest Proposal is a 1729 satirical essay by Jonathan Swift that proposes the poor Irish sell their children as food for the rich to solve poverty, overpopulation, and economic hardship in Ireland. Written in the style of a serious economic tract, Swift uses shocking, logical-sounding arguments, including recipes and statistics, to highlight the brutal conditions and the callous indifference of the ruling class, ultimately criticizing the English government’s oppression of the Irish people. 

Key aspects of the essay:

Author: Jonathan Swift, an Anglo-Irish writer and clergyman, wrote the essay in 1729.

Satirical premise: Swift suggests that the children of the poor be fattened and sold as a delicacy to the wealthy, presenting this as a practical solution to Ireland’s problems. 

Genre: It is a work of Juvenalian satire, using harsh irony to condemn the social and political situation.

Purpose: To shock the reader into recognizing the severity of Irish poverty and the inhumanity of the policies that caused it, rather than to genuinely propose cannibalism. 

Tone: The essay maintains a serious, rational, and “modest” tone, which makes the horrific proposal even more disturbing and effective. 

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I’m sure Newt’s intention was satire, right?

Continue reading “Climate Denier War Hawk has Modest Proposal”

Weirdly, big winners in this war could be renewables, and, short term anyway, Coal.
Energy Secretary (and fracking millionaire) Chris Wright’s big grift for Liquified Natural gas (LNG), could be hobbled, even long term, given the sudden uncertainty in Persian Gulf stability.

AlJazeera:

QatarEnergy has suspended liquefied natural gas (LNG) production following a drone attack, straining the global LNG market.

On Monday, Iranian drones struck two sites, according to Qatar’s Ministry of Defence: a water tank at a power plant in Mesaieed Industrial City and an energy facility in Ras Laffan belonging to QatarEnergy, the world’s largest LNG producer.
Qatar’s LNG exports represent 20 percent of the global market. With fewer products reaching the market, LNG supply is down, causing prices to surge.

While 82 percent of QatarEnergy’s sales are to Asian countries, the halt puts increased pressure on other markets across the globe, too, particularly in Europe.

In effect, a smaller supply of gas will need to meet the same global demand. As a result, gas prices have already started soaring: Benchmark Dutch and British wholesale gas prices soared by almost 50 percent, while benchmark Asian LNG prices jumped almost 39 percent, on Monday after the QatarEnergy announcement.

“Not good if Qatar stays offline for long, of course,” said Ziemba. The only silver lining for Europe: “At least the worst of the winter in Europe may be behind,” Ziemba pointed out.

E&E News:

On the eve of the Iran war, Energy Secretary Chris Wright traveled to Texas to celebrate the expansion of a liquefied natural gas terminal.

Gas will likely be “the fastest-growing energy source probably through the rest of my life,” Wright told a crowd gathered at Cheniere’s Corpus Christi plant. 

Two weeks later, that outlook has become significantly more complicated. The U.S.-Israel war in Iran has resulted in shutting down the world’s largest LNG facility, in Qatar, and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, stranding about a fifth of global gas supplies. Escalating attacks by Iran on tankers and cargo vessels on Thursday have dimmed hopes of reopening the shipping route and led analysts to question the future growth of gas.

Continue reading “War Could Upend Fossil Fuel Agenda”

In 2019, I was recording the public comments at the Isabella County, Michigan Planning Commission meeting, held to consider permitting a large wind farm in the area.
I was lucky enough to capture the simple, but heartfelt and obviously pained words of a local farmer, John Fabian, who explained the very personal experience that made him want to support the project, and host a turbine.
It brought the house down.
The project was approved, and is now in successful service, producing clean electricity at about 4 cents/Kwh.

From Jeff Berardelli, Chief Meteorologist at WFLA in Tampa.