This is Not Cool

NASA:

Arctic sea ice reached its annual minimum extent on Sept. 12, according to NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado Boulder. The ice covered an estimated 1.78 million square miles (4.6 million square kilometers), tying 2008, 2010, and 2025 for the 10th-lowest minimum in the satellite record.

The 2026 minimum is consistent with patterns observed in the satellite record. The past 20 years, from 2007 through 2026, have produced the 20 lowest annual Arctic sea ice minimum extents observed since continuous satellite measurements began in late 1978.

Arctic sea ice grows during the dark, cold autumn and winter and retreats as temperatures rise during spring and summer, typically reaching its lowest extent in September. Weather conditions can cause substantial differences in the amount of ice that melts from one summer to another.

Over the last decade, for example, increased cloud cover has prevented solar radiation from further accelerating the melt of sea ice, according to Linette Boisvert, a sea ice scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

That has contributed to relatively stable September sea ice extent in recent years. “We’ve plateaued, but we’re still low relative to the earlier part of the record,” said Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at NSIDC.

Detroit News station reporting on Ann Arbor’s (Go Blue) new initiative to provide solar panels and battery backup to residents, as a step toward creating a city owned utility, and cutting the cord to Utility DTE, which has been criticized for not maintaining reliability in the face of increasing weather extremes.

Above, Baton Rouge, Louisiana TV report say without exports, refineries will have to stop production on multiple streams of product, including jet fuel, heating oil, and gasoline.
Energy Secretary Wright, perhaps seeing this as his chance to bail, agrees.
Death watch clock now ticking.

Reuters:

NEW YORK, Sept 23 (Reuters) – US Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Wednesday said a US ban on diesel exports would ‌not work and could push up gasoline and jet fuel prices, a stance at odds with President Donald Trump, who is backing the idea.

Diesel prices have surged to record highs due to the US-Israeli war with Iran and the conflict in Ukraine, angering farmers and other users of the fuel ahead of the midterm elections in November that will decide control of Congress.

“The blunt tool ​of banning diesel exports definitely doesn’t work,” Wright said at an event hosted by the Economist in New York.

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CNBC reporting below, highlights Iowa farmers deeply unhappy with War-jacked Diesel prices, but calls Diesel export ban a “terrible idea that would only raise prices”.

Continue reading “Energy Sec Says Diesel Export Ban Would Not Work. Deathwatch clock Starts Ticking”

Tax Policy Center:

States rethink data center tax breaks. States that once used generous tax incentives to attract data centers are facing growing costs, reports The Wall Street Journal. Ohio’s sales tax exemption for tech company purchases of computer servers and other equipment grew to over $1.5 billion last year, more than 10 times the state’s original estimate. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) paused new applications for the sales tax break in May. Lawmakers in at least 10 other states including Illinois, New Jersey, and Washington are ending similar tax breaks, and dozens of other states’ lawmakers are considering legislation to end them. 

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According to the Wall Street Journal, Governors in at least 10 states have “slammed the brakes” on Data Center tax breaks, including Illinois, New Jersey and Washington, thereby pushing developments into still-friendly states like West Virginia, and Wyoming.
Proponents are argue that the large local taxes they still pay could be massively beneficial to local communities, schools, roads, and services like Fire/Rescue.

Continue reading “Breaking Down Data Center’s Tax Breaks”

I discussed the "Godzilla" El Niño and how it's likely to combine with human-caused warming to supercharge extreme weather in the months ahead with @CaitrionaPerry of @BBCNews, live from #ClimateWeekNYC pic.twitter.com/xeMDFlyXa9

— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) September 23, 2026

Zeke Hausfather in The Climate Brink:

We hear a lot about central outcomes of climate change. For example, under the new “medium” scenario (e.g. current policies continuing), the world warms around 2.9C by 2100. But these numbers mask some massive uncertainties in how the climate actually responds to our emissions.

These arise from two factors: carbon cycle feedbacks – how the biosphere and ocean’s ability to absorb carbon changes as we emit more and the world warms, and climate sensitivity – how the interplay of feedbacks like water vapor, clouds, snow and ice, etc. respond to warming.

Continue reading “El Niño Could be a Preview of the Near Future”

For a good explainer on why El Niño causes sea level rise along the West Coast, see this post.
Another illustration of how climate change will continue to provide eye-popping YouTube content.
Small comfort, but I take what I can get.

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California local TV report has a familiar line – “Never seen anything like this.”

Continue reading “California Declares Emergency in Prep for Monster El Niño”

Jim Stewartson on X:

One of the most disturbing things he’s ever said—and an example of how allowing this to go on is a conscious decision to destroy America.

This is a government bailout in motion, to temporarily save an industry that is doomed to fail, all because his donors need to exit through IPOs.

He’s evidentially criminally insane and no one will do a thing about it because his behavior suits the people who control him just fine.

This will turn a market crash and recession into a great depression, all because he’s cognitively unable to understand the real world and its ramifications. And no one has the courage to try and explain it to him.

We’re fucked. I don’t know how else to put it.

Continue reading “As Researchers Warnings Increase, Trump Announces “AI Force””

UPDATE: an hour after I posted this piece, I became aware that in the hotly contested Michigan Senate race, Trump flunky Mike Rogers, trailing Democrat Abdul El Sayed, has now called for an end to the Iran War, and for Diesel exports to be temporarily stopped.
As the analysis below shows, the export ban could boomerang on consumers.

When inveterate war hawk Mike Rogers suddenly declares, “The war in Iran needs to end—and end quickly,” you know he’s losing—and losing badly. https://t.co/xEY0miluzU

— Justin Amash (@justinamash) September 21, 2026

Garret Golding and Lutz Killian in Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas:

Proponents of a U.S. crude oil export ban argue that prohibiting crude oil exports would increase the supply of crude in the United States, allowing refiners to increase their production of gasoline and diesel and lowering the price of these fuels. The implicit premise is that there is enough spare capacity for this light sweet crude oil to be refined in the United States.

One important point this proposal overlooks is that the prices of gasoline and diesel in the United States are determined by their prices in global markets since the U.S. trades diesel and gasoline. Because a cessation of U.S. crude oil exports would lower the supply of oil in global markets and raise its price, one would expect global fuel prices, if anything, to increase as a result. Refiners can always sell these fuels abroad at their global price, so it makes no sense for them to sell for less in the domestic market. 

In other words, the prices of gasoline and diesel fuel in the U.S. would not be expected to decline and might actually increase, rendering the crude oil export ban not only ineffective, but also counterproductive. Thus, there is no reason to expect that U.S. consumers would benefit from such a ban.

Garret Golding on X:

If you ban diesel exports, this is what happens:
Without the overseas market, diesel inventories start to accumulate domestically. This temporarily puts downward pressure on wholesale prices in the US, likely more so in the Gulf Coast than anywhere else. HOWEVER

Continue reading “High Diesel is Killing the Economy. Should We Stop Exporting It?”

Ben Noll on X:

You are looking at the strongest El Niño event on record.

On Sept. 19, the key monitoring region in the Pacific Ocean reached 3.05°C above average, breaking the record from November 2015.

There are still three months of strengthening to go.

Below, the best and clearest layman’s explanation of El Niño is from a CBC presenter – leave it to the Canadians to cut through BS.

Continue reading “El Niño is Now Strongest on Record, with Months to Grow Stronger”

Global Energy analyst Jeff Currie tells Bloomberg the Energy Transition is “TurboCharged” – but it’s not about climate, and maybe never was.
By far the biggest growth in energy consumption is going to come from the developing world in Asia and Africa, and those countries are no longer willing to be held hostage to fossil fuels.
Case study – Thailand.

Bloomberg:

Thailand is using the oil shock caused by the Iran war to accelerate a shift toward electrification and domestically sourced energy, trying to turn a supply crisis into a push for greater security.

Rising prices have reinforced the government’s drive to electrify the economy, including greater adoption of battery-powered vehicles, as policymakers seek to reduce dependence on imported crude that accounts for about 90% of Thailand’s oil supplies, Energy Minister Akanat Promphan said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Global energy prices have soared since the US and Israeli attacks on Iran resulted in the collapse of shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz. South and Southeast Asian nations that relied heavily on the Middle East because of its proximity have been particularly hard hit.

Continue reading “Energy Transition is No Longer About Climate Change”