Month: July 2023

Grave Damage to Florida Reefs as Heat Still Building

Reefs around Florida Keys degrading in response to record ocean heat wave.

NOAA:

Derek Manzello, Ph.D., Coordinator of NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch, has researched the impacts of ocean warming around the Florida Keys for more than 20 years. During that time, he has examined five different warm-water coral bleaching events, both on location and with remote-sensing technology.  He sat down this week and put the developing heat event into context.

What type of impacts do hot ocean temperatures have on coral reefs? 

Manzello:  If ocean temperatures are higher than the maximum monthly average, for a month or more, especially during the warmest part of the year — even by as little as 1-2 degrees Celsius (2-3 degrees Fahrenheit) — corals will experience bleaching.  

A bleached coral is essentially starving to death because it has lost its main source of nutrition — the algae that live symbiotically within its tissues. The damage corals experience from marine heatwaves is a function of the duration, or how long the heat stress occurs, plus the magnitude of the heat stress.  Corals can recover from bleaching if the heat stress subsides, but the corals that are able to recover frequently have impaired growth and reproduction, and are susceptible to disease for two to four years after recovery.  There are downstream, negative impacts to the corals that are able to survive a heat stress event.    

If the heat stress does not subside, the coral will die.  Mortality becomes likely if the corals experience sea temperatures 1°C greater than the historical maximum monthly average for two months, or 2°C greater than the maximum monthly average for one month.  Also, if there is a temperature deviation of say 3°C, then the corals would be expected to start experiencing mortality in less than three weeks. 

How unprecedented and concerning is this current marine heatwave in Florida?

Manzello: The data we are seeing show sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are hotter than they have ever been in the satellite record (dating back to 1985) this early in the year. In the figure, (top of this page) the black line represents 2023, and you can see that SSTs have been among the hottest on record all year. When the SSTs surpass the solid blue, horizontal line, the corals will start becoming heat stressed. 


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Even At Fox Weather, Record Hot Ocean Forces Climate Discussion

Really interesting, well, ok, infuriating, dynamic here as you can see this Fox Weather host approach the discussion of this summer’s super warm Atlantic with legit expert Ben Kirtman of the University of Miami.

Aptly named Amy Freeze, in questioning Dr Kirtman, approached the subject like she was handling a red-hot radioactive turd.

“A lot of people want to use some of these numbers that are coming out…and they want to tag it to big causes….but due to this natural cause of El Nino happening, .. are we expecting this to continue to linger, can you really directly tie it to certain things? Is it the El Nino that’s causing this warmth, or is it something else that can be touted?”

To his credit, Dr Kirtman did not reach across the split screen and strangle Weather Karen, but played a perfect expert straight man, and explained the climate change component like you would to your frustrating, ignorant, deeply misinformed, – but sweet, – MAGA grandmother.

UPDATE: Meanwhile, elsewhere, on the News side of things, everything is fine.

Just fine.
Mike Mann comments.

Insurrection Maniac Pleads Guilty: Lead Attacks on Farmers and Clean Energy

Below, update on the status of Capitol Insurrectionist Ryan Kelley, who, after swearing he would never plead guilty, has plead guilty.
Kelley, a Michigan GOP gubernatorial candidate, was a leader in a bizarro “Revival Meeting” event in rural Michigan, where he demonized clean energy, and slandered the farmers and landowners who wish to site wind or solar energy on their land.

Above, my interviews with Michigan Farmers who described the twisted, fossil fuel directed campaign against clean energy, which is ongoing internationally.
The deeper you dig into America (and the world’s) disinformational dysfunction, the more clearly you see the fingerprints of the 40 year fossil funded campaign against facts and consensus reality.

The Intellectualist:

Former Michigan GOP gubernatorial candidate, Ryan Kelley, plead guilty plea for his involvement in January 6. He faces up to one year imprisonment and a fine of $100,000, according to court records.

Kelley would not answer questions about his future political career.

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Greenland Melt “on a record pace”

National Snow and Ice Data Center:

Late June ushered in a significant shift in weather and melting for Greenland, particularly for the southern portion of the ice sheet, known as South Dome, where melting is currently on a record pace. Melting along the northern rim of the ice sheet is also greater than average. These changes are a result of a shift in the air circulation, associated to negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values. High air pressure now covers the island, bringing warm winds from the southwest and favoring sunnier condition enhancing the surface melt in the ablation zone, for which the extent is now close to the previous records in the summers of 2012 and 2019.

“Are We the Baddies?” Oil Company Hopes “Influencers” Will Help Image

Novara Media:

Earlier this month, the world recorded its hottest-ever day – three times in the same week. 

Greek islands rammed full of tourists are now being evacuated due to wildfires that have seized at least nine Mediterranean countries. Dozens have died as a result of blazes in Algeria.

It’s hardly surprising, then, that oil and gas giants are becoming increasingly determined to deflect blame away from their actions, and their record profits – a strategy that now includes the use of influencers.  

After a months-long trawl through the inner depths of the internet, DeSmog has discovered hundreds of examples of fossil fuel giants paying influencers, in an attempt to convince millennials that oil and gas companies are not “the bad guys”.

This was BP’s concern in 2020, when it organised an internal summit to address its poor public perception. In a leaked document from the conference, the company stated its desire to become “more relatable, passionate, and authentic beyond our current centre of influence.” 

“What is meaningful empathy in a world where we’re seen as one of the bad guys?” the document lamented. 

The solution, it seems, was not to urgently transition away from fossil fuels towards green, renewable energy. Rather, BP said that it needed to change its PR strategy to help “win the trust of the younger generation”.

Our investigation found that both BP and Shell have been major sponsors of influencers in recent years, funding campaigns that have reached billions of people. 

Continue reading ““Are We the Baddies?” Oil Company Hopes “Influencers” Will Help Image”

Long Predicted, Now Here: Euro Heat Wave Hitting Crops Hard

Translation of tweet above from Stefan Rahmstorf:

What is happening in the Mediterranean right now, with heat, drought and fires? Exactly what climate scientists have been warning about for many years. Here is a short excerpt from a lecture I gave in Malaga 14 years ago.

The Grocer (UK):

Cereal production in southern Europe is expected to fall by up to 60% on last year in the wake of the Charon heatwave currently gripping the continent.

The hot weather created by the Charon anticyclone that has moved into Europe from Africa has prompted serious concerns over the quality and size of harvests this year.

The 2023 European cereal harvest is set to be its lowest since 2007 – at 256 million tonnes, some 9.5% lower than the five-year average of 283 million tonnes, European farming organisation Copa Cogeca said this week.

Harvests in Portugal, Spain and Italy, where temperatures have regularly topped 40°C in July, are expected to be hardest hit by the heatwave.

Copa Cogeca said quality was also likely to be negatively affected due to the extreme weather conditions seen across the continent.

It is the latest climate issue to hit cereal production in 2023, following a damp start to the year that led to significant flooding, the body added.

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Is “The Gulf Stream” Shutting Down? Is AMOC Running Amok?

Big wave on Twitter yesterday about a new study of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, (an important component of circulation in the Global Oceans, that takes in what people think of as the Gulf Stream but is actually much more).

It’s been discussed on this blog numerous times, will try to summarize what we know here, starting with Dr. Stefan Rahmstorf, above, who has done a lot of pioneering work on this, but was not part of the current study. He fills in some gaps, and concludes that timing of an AMOC shutdown is uncertain, but “too close for comfort.” Rahmstorf also has an excellent deeper dive at RealClimate.
Some folks have taken some of the headlines too far, and made statements that Ocean circulation “will” shut down in 2025. That’s too much to say, but obviously, in this summer of extremes, it’s an understandable leap of anxiety.

Here the current study abstract in Nature:

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.

Washington Post:

The Atlantic Ocean’s sensitive circulation system has become slower and less resilient, according to a new analysis of 150 years of temperature data — raising the possibility that this crucial element of the climate system could collapse within the next few decades.

Continue reading “Is “The Gulf Stream” Shutting Down? Is AMOC Running Amok?”