Translation of tweet above from Stefan Rahmstorf:
What is happening in the Mediterranean right now, with heat, drought and fires? Exactly what climate scientists have been warning about for many years. Here is a short excerpt from a lecture I gave in Malaga 14 years ago.
Cereal production in southern Europe is expected to fall by up to 60% on last year in the wake of the Charon heatwave currently gripping the continent.
The hot weather created by the Charon anticyclone that has moved into Europe from Africa has prompted serious concerns over the quality and size of harvests this year.
The 2023 European cereal harvest is set to be its lowest since 2007 – at 256 million tonnes, some 9.5% lower than the five-year average of 283 million tonnes, European farming organisation Copa Cogeca said this week.
Harvests in Portugal, Spain and Italy, where temperatures have regularly topped 40°C in July, are expected to be hardest hit by the heatwave.
Copa Cogeca said quality was also likely to be negatively affected due to the extreme weather conditions seen across the continent.
It is the latest climate issue to hit cereal production in 2023, following a damp start to the year that led to significant flooding, the body added.
“With not much to sell and [with their crop] at a low price with very high input costs, EU crops farmers will face a very difficult situation this year,” a spokeswoman said. “And more importantly, they risk not being able to ensure a decent harvest next year, which will be necessary to keep afloat after this year’s dramatic situation.”
Above, Rahmstorf tweeted out a reminder of what he and other scientists have been projecting for Europe for a long time, and warned that further warming and drying from Climate change would have serious impacts.
This summer, if there was any doubt, those impacts are here.
UPDATE: Meanwhile, from NPR Kansas City, MO:
SYLVAN GROVE, Kansas — Kansas is “the wheat state,” the officially adopted moniker that embraces its place as the country’s breadbasket.
Tall white grain elevators, some decorated with wheat murals, loom over tiny farm towns. For decades, Kansas led the nation in wheat production, and the U.S. led the world in wheat exports.
But this year’s meager wheat harvest turns that proud tradition on its head.
Kansas flour mills will likely buy wheat grown in Eastern Europe. It’s like Texas importing oil, West Virginia hauling in coal, or the Saudis shipping in sand.
Aaron Harries, Vice President of Research and Operations at Kansas Wheat, said it’s never happened before.
“That truly is unfortunate,” he said. “And it’s another hit against our domestic farmers.”
Thank Mother Nature.
The High Plains is dry in the best of times. For the last two years, a deep drought withered much of this prime wheat-producing region.
This year’s Kansas wheat harvest is shaping up to be the smallest since 1957 when the Eisenhower administration intentionally suppressed wheat production.
It’s much the same in Oklahoma. The crop is so poor, some farmers are dousing their measly crops with herbicide to contain their losses and collect insurance.
That creates searing economic pain radiating through prairie towns where summer wheat sales are the staff of life.