Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis:
Following the disruption to global energy markets caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Commission launched the REPowerEU Plan in May 2022. The strategy aims to end the EU’s dependence on imports of Russian energy by reducing energy consumption, expanding the use of renewables and securing energy supplies from alternative sources.
Between 2021 and 2024, the EU reduced its gas demand by approximately 78.5 billion cubic metres (bcm), equivalent to a 20% decline. Renewables and heat pump deployment, combined with gas demand reduction policies, were significant drivers of this decline. Between 2021 and 2024, EU households cut gas consumption by 24%, industry by 20%, commercial and public services by 19%, and electricity and heat generation by 18%.
EU heat pump deployment grew rapidly for much of the past decade, primarily in residential and commercial buildings.1 The EU deployed around 7.6 million heat pumps over 2022–2024. France installed the most, with roughly 2 million units, followed by Italy (1.5 million) and Germany (nearly 1 million).
EU countries installed 146 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaics from 2022 to 2024, led by Germany, Spain, Poland, Italy, France and the Netherlands. Utility-scale solar makes up 39% of the EU’s cumulative solar capacity, with the rest installed on rooftops, according to SolarPower Europe. EU countries installed more than 43GW of wind capacity from 2022 to 2024, led by Germany, Finland, Sweden, France, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland.
Clean energy investments can mitigate energy supply risks, whether from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or the supply gap created by the EU’s full ban on imports of Russian gas, which takes effect in 2027.
By analysing Eurostat data on wind and solar production and the impact of new heat pumps on gas demand with the EU’s LNG imports in recent years, IEEFA concludes that clean energy has helped offset the EU’s LNG import dependency. IEEFA estimates that heat pump deployment and increased solar and wind generation reduced EU gas demand by 8.8bcm in 2024 — equivalent to about two-thirds of EU imports of Qatari LNG that year.
Gas savings will continue to grow as the installed clean energy base expands. IEEFA estimates that achieving the EU’s targets of installing at least 4 million heat pumps, 75GW of solar and 22GW of wind annually over the next five years could cut gas demand by around a quarter by the end of 2030 — excluding other gas-saving measures. This saving is equivalent to double the volume of LNG the EU could import from Qatar by 2030.
