Climate Change: Killing Us Now

Typical climate delayer tactic is to downplay the real human damage that climate change is doing today. Much of that has to be teased out of larger statistical records, and that work is now being done.

Down to Earth:

Heatwaves have become India’s most dangerous disasters in terms of human mortality. Three of the five warmest years in India have been recorded in the past decade (2015-2024). Heatwaves in India are projected to occur thirty times more often by the end of the century if the global mean temperature increases by 2 degrees Celsius.

Per our estimate (see below), a single heatwave — even one lasting just a few days — causes tens of thousands of excess deaths in India. Despite the rising toll, heatwave mortality remains under-reported, poorly tracked, and largely absent as a target for preventive actions.

Between 2000 and 2020, the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) reported 20,615 heatstroke deaths, based on its annual Accidental Deaths & Suicides in India reports (NCRB, 2000-2020). During the same period, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) listed 17,767 heatwave deaths, based on state-reported disaster mortality compiled under the Annual Report on Heatwaves in India (NDMA, 2021). In contrast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) recorded just 10,545 deaths in its Climate Hazards and Vulnerability Atlas of India, using data from State Disaster Management Authorities (IMD, 2022). These figures, all from official government sources, differ by nearly a factor of two, and the discrepancies arise from differences in methodology, data sources, and reporting responsibilities.  Nevertheless, they give the impression that annual excess mortality from heatwaves in India is about 1,500, a tiny number relative to daily all-cause deaths in India of about 25,000.   

Peer-reviewed studies suggest the actual death toll from heatwaves is far higher than both official and media counts. Many heat-related deaths go unrecognised or are misclassified. Public health experts note that physicians often record only the immediate medical cause on death certificates, without acknowledging the role of heat as the underlying trigger. As a result, official statistics “barely scratch the surface” of the true human cost of heatwaves.

Courthouse News:

Europe’s hottest summer on record came with a staggering price. In just four months of 2024, more than 62,700 people died from heat, according to a new study in Nature Medicine. Researchers say it is the latest sign that extreme temperatures are not a distant threat but a growing public health emergency already unfolding across the continent.

The research, led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and backed by the “la Caixa” Foundation, analyzed heat and mortality data from 654 regions in 32 countries. They estimated 62,775 heat-related deaths between June 1 and Sept. 30, nearly 25% more than in 2023 and just shy of the 2022 record.

Across the summers of 2022, 2023 and 2024, extreme heat is believed to have killed more than 181,000 people. Southern Europe, with its hotter climate and older populations, was hit hardest.

Europe has faced deadly heat before; in 2003, a scorching heatwave killed more than 70,000 people across the continent. Russia’s 2010 heat and wildfires killed thousands more, and 2019 saw records fall again as Paris and Berlin sweltered. Scientists warned those were previews of what was coming, a warning borne out by the past three summers.

In 2024, Italy was hit hardest with more than 19,000 deaths. Spain saw over 6,700, Germany about 6,300, Greece nearly 6,000 and Romania close to 5,000.

When adjusted for population, Greece recorded the highest rate with 574 deaths per million people, followed by Bulgaria at 530 and Serbia at 379.

The data revealed inequalities in who faced the greatest risk. Women saw nearly half again as many deaths as men, and age proved an even stronger dividing line. People over 75 were more than three times as likely to die in the heat as everyone else.