RMI:
1. Get the most out of mined minerals.
It will take some time to build the infrastructure to support a robust circular battery economy, so in the short term we will need to continue mining to meet growing demand for batteries. But by focusing on how to get the most out of these minerals, we can greatly reduce our need for mining. This can be done by implementing the six strategies outlined in our report, The Battery Mineral Loop: The Path From Extraction To Circularity:
- Shift to new battery chemistries: Deploy different battery chemistries that require fewer critical minerals.
- Increase energy density: Store more energy per kilogram through better battery engineering.
- Employ battery recycling: Ensure all batteries are recycled at end of life so their materials can be used in new batteries.
- Reuse EVBs and extend their lifetime: Use and reuse batteries longer to avoid the need for frequent replacements and provide a greater flow of service from a smaller stock of batteries and their minerals.
- Increase vehicle efficiency: Make cars more efficient — lighter weight, sleeker, and with better tires and accessories — and right size them for purpose to allow for smaller batteries for the same vehicle range.
- Change mobility patterns: Reduce the demand for motorized transportation and induce mode-shifts to public transit, electric micromobility, cycling, and walking through better urban planning, smarter transportation infrastructure investments, and logistics efficiency.
These strategies will not only help meet near-term EVB demand but can actually eliminate our need for new minerals by 2050.
People often say that critical minerals are the new oil — meaning that critical minerals will power our future, drive our global economy, and require ever-increasing extraction the way that oil has done in the past. This also implies that the drive to maintain strategic access to them will lead to the same geopolitical conflict and environmental impacts as oil. This concept misses a key point: minerals only need to be extracted once, while oil needs continuous extraction.
If we employ all six solutions mentioned above, we’ll only need to mine a cumulative 125 million tons of battery minerals to reach mineral self-sufficiency. This may seem like a lot, but it is 17 times smaller than the amount of oil we extract and process for road transport every year. And, at today’s commodity prices, it’s about 20 times cheaper.
To better understand how we can reach net-zero mineral extraction, stakeholders can use RMI’s new Battery Mineral Loop Dashboard to explore these six strategies and their impact on global demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt. The dashboard allows users to adjust battery demand, innovation, efficiency, and recycling inputs to see how these parameters impact mineral demand and to better understand what levers can have the most impact in driving us toward net-zero mineral extraction.
Geopolitical tensions must be set aside as the world faces shortages of critical battery materials such as lithium, nickel and cobalt due to surging demand, said Robin Zeng Yuqun, founder of Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (CATL), the world’s largest manufacturer of batteries for electric vehicles (EVs).
Countries – from government leaders to businesses and non-governmental organisations – must collaborate to accelerate innovation in the EV battery industry to ensure a resilient supply chain, reduce dependency on critical metals and decarbonise the transport sector to tackle the climate crisis, Zeng told the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos.
“The demand for critical materials might increase by five times in the next 10 years, considering the fast growth of the industry. But at the end of the day, when we achieve 100 per cent electric cars, there will be very tiny amounts of new critical materials to be mined.”
China leads the world in battery recycling technologies, an important solution for addressing battery material shortages.
For instance, Zeng told the forum that CATL currently has the capacity to recycle as much as 99.6 per cent of precious metals such as nickel, cobalt and manganese, and up to 91 per cent of lithium, higher than Europe’s capacity of 70 per cent to 80 per cent. Last year, CATL recycled 100,000 tonnes of waste batteries through its subsidiary Brump to create 13,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, he said.
“We are fighting climate change … so whatever the geopolitical issues are, we have to find a way,” Zeng said during the panel.
As sales of EVs continue to break records around the world, governments and carmakers are increasingly concerned about the persistent shortages of lithium, nickel and cobalt, which could put the net-zero transition under threat.
S&P Global forecast that a more than 270 per cent increase in lithium production levels is needed to meet the estimated demand from the EV battery sector by 2030. Nickel and cobalt are also expected to be critical, but to a lesser degree as the deployment of iron-based chemistries will remedy their potential shortage, it said.
The Fujian-based company is willing to share its technologies and help overseas carmakers address their battery shortages, Zeng said. By 2042, China will no longer need to mine new mineral materials because of its mature battery recycling market, he added.
CATL is increasingly expanding its capacity overseas with plants in Germany and Hungary. It is also partnering with Amsterdam-based multinational carmaker Stellantis and Ford Motor to build battery factories in Europe and Michigan in the US.
“People often say that critical minerals are the new oil….”
I dislike that analogy. The typical barrel of oil is maybe 8% “other products” (plastics, polyesters, etc.) and the rest is burned. In contrast, these mineral products are reusable. An EV battery is analogous to a gas tank, not the gasoline itself.
Unlike hydrocarbons, every atom of critical minerals mined still exists.