As Fossil fuel fascists take over in the United States, there are clear signs that what may seem to be irresistible power may not always be what it seems.
Case in point, Russia’s strategy of Gas as a weapon has not worked out to their advantage.
Importantly, the Energy transition in Europe has been launched into overdrive, and a clear message has been sent to the world’s developing economies – reliance on imported fuels carries the risk of blackmail. Plan accordingly.
Russian gas exports via Soviet-era pipelines running through Ukraine came to a halt on New Year’s Day, marking the end of decades of Moscow’s dominance over Europe’s energy markets.
The gas had kept flowing despite nearly three years of war, but Russia’s gas firm Gazprom said it had stopped at 0500 GMT after Ukraine refused to renew a transit agreement.
The widely expected stoppage will not impact prices for consumers in the European Union – unlike in 2022, when falling supplies from Russia sent prices to record highs, worsened a cost-of-living crisis and hit the bloc’s competitiveness.
The last remaining EU buyers of Russian gas via Ukraine, such as Slovakia and Austria, have arranged alternative supply, while Hungary will keep receiving Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea.
But Transdniestria, a breakaway pro-Russian region of Ukraine’s neighbour Moldova also reliant on the transit flows, cut off heating and hot water supplies to households early on Wednesday. Local energy company Tirasteploenergo urged residents to dress warmly, hang blankets or thick curtains over windows and balcony doors, and use electric heaters.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said the end of gas transit through his country to Europe was “one of Moscow’s biggest defeats” and urged the U.S. to supply more gas to Europe.
“The more there is on the market from Europe’s real partners, the faster we will overcome the last negative consequences of European energy dependence on Russia,” he wrote.
Europe’s “joint task” now, he wrote, was to support ex-Soviet Moldova “in this period of energy transformation”.
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It’s true that the US oil/gas industry will seek advantage from the new administration, and may try to build out its LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) export infrastructure. But clear signs of petroleum demand destruction are emerging in the world’s number one importer, with Europe probably not far behind.
The greed of ambitious men could be running headlong into market and innovation cycles that will prove too powerful to overcome.
Chant “Drill Baby Drill” all you wish, when the US is leading the world in natural gas production and exports already, and prices don’t support huge investment in new wells…Investors have to ask about the future of the fossil path.
A desperate rat (or bear, in this case) is the most dangerous.