Seems notable that the CEO of the North American Electric Reliability Council would take time on New Year’s Eve to record a message of warning to all electric generators and utilities, especially in the US Southeast.
He brings up the specter of disastrous storms Uri and Elliot in the recent past, and points to predictions of record or near record cold outbreak affecting broad areas, and potentially leading to dangerous outages.
Those of us that follow energy issues should be aware that the primary concern is with the integrity of the supposedly “reliable base load” natural gas system, which is highly vulnerable to cold weather effects, like frozen gas lines.
The North American Electric Reliability Corp. rang in the New Year with a grid reliability warning ahead of an expected winter storm that officials said could last “deep into January.”
“I’m asking everyone in the electricity supply chain, from natural gas producers to pipeline operators, to system operators, to power generators and the utilities themselves, to take all appropriate actions to ensure that we can maintain an uninterrupted supply of electricity to customers,” NERC President and CEO Jim Robb said in a video message published Dec. 31.
NERC said its approach to extreme weather events includes mandatory cold weather reliability standards, guidelines on cold weather preparations, follow-up on Winter Storm Elliott recommendations, alerts, industry webinars, and the publication of seasonal assessments.
AccuWeather meteorologists say Arctic blasts of cold air are expected across much of the eastern half of the U.S. starting this weekend, “which could result in the lowest January temperatures in more than a decade in some places.”
“We’re going to be dealing with the coldest air of the season and multiple days of subzero temperatures from the northern Plains and Upper Midwest into the Tennessee Valley,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in an email.
Robb said that by taking early action, electric system stakeholders can help to avoid a repeat of widespread outages that resulted from Winter Storm Uri in 2021 in Texas and Winter Storm Elliott in 2022 across the Mid-Atlantic region.
The series of anticipated cold fronts could last two to three weeks, he said.
“While forecasts are forecasts and undoubtedly contain errors, these systems do seem to have the potential to bring a prolonged period of very cold weather, as cold as single digit temperatures in the U.S. South,” Robb said.
In a statement, NERC said it is “especially concerned about natural gas supply given the significant amount of production in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.”
“There could be a series of successive events that could create challenges for those reliant on inventoried fuels,” NERC said.
The Natural Gas Supply Association says its members have taken steps to prepare and winterize their systems. Colder weather and increased demand are expected to put “slight upward pressure” on gas
prices compared to last winter, the group said in its winter outlook published in October. It also projected higher-than-average gas storage, and record production and supply, this winter.
North American Electric Reliability Council:
NERC is monitoring the extreme cold weather events forecast across much of North America over the next several weeks. This extreme weather pattern of arctic cold is expected to bring extremely low temperatures, damaging winds, snow, and freezing rain to midwestern, eastern, and southern states, with the potential to create significant challenges. There could be a series of successive events that could create challenges for those reliant on inventoried fuels.
NERC urges everyone in the electricity supply chain to take steps now to ensure the highest levels of reliability. NERC is especially concerned about natural gas supply given the significant amount of production in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
NERC works with industry stakeholders to prepare for and mitigate the potential impacts of such significant weather events, and its comprehensive approach includes mandatory Cold Weather Reliability Standards, guidelines on cold weather preparations, follow-up on Winter Storm Elliott recommendations, alerts, industry webinars, and the publication of seasonal assessments.
The reliability of the North American electric grid is the key priority for NERC—we know 400 million North Americans are counting on an uninterrupted supply of electricity to support our way of life.
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Takeaway – the need for energy storage as another leg of electric reliability.
Many, maybe most of you will have seen this, but I can’t emphasize enough how important it is to knock down the widely accepted “everybody knows’ nonsense about Texas’ infamous Valentine’s Day freeze of 2021. It was gas, primarily, that failed, along with nuclear and a few coal plants.