You’re not wrong. We are seeing tornadoes in places, and at times of year that we have not seen them in the past. New study confirms what research has been hinting at for years, but results still somewhat mixed, and this is a fluid situation, so could be that data is not keeping up with changes happening in real time.
What has changed most: The largest increase in tornadoes between the two 35-year periods has been from western Kentucky and the lower Ohio Valley to Mississippi and Louisiana.
Fewer tornadoes have occurred in recent decades in the Plains, from parts of Texas to Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
The study says this change is “dispelling any misconceptions caused by the better visibility of tornadoes in the Great Plains vs. the eastern U.S.”
Winter tornadoes in the Southeast have increased by 102 percent.
Seasonal changes, too: There have also been important changes in when tornadoes occur.
Tornadoes have trended away from summer toward the fall and winter.
Summer tornadoes were 37% fewer from 1986 through 2020 than in the previous 35-year period. This summer reduction was most pronounced in the Plains, including parts of Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas.
But the largest increases occurred in fall (80%) and winter (102%), primarily in the Southeast, where they’re most common that time of year.
The study also found the spring tornado maximum areas have spread through parts of the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys into the Deep South, instead of focused only in the Southern Plains.
What does it all mean? First, despite many previous research studies in past decades focused on the Plains, the tornado threat is often significant in many other locations, particularly the Deep South and Ohio Valley.
Second, while the nation’s tornado count often peaks in spring, there really isn’t a “tornado season”, per se. They can occur at any time and anywhere conditions are favorable for the severe thunderstorms that spawn them.
This year, Wisconsin had its first February tornado on record, and that was followed by a rash of tornadoes from northern Illinois to New York state around the month’s end.
Most surprising for me was the maps that appear to show decreases in “tornado genesis” events in the Upper midwest, particularly in spring. Trying to square that with lived experience, including Insurance companies raising rates to compensate for increased hail and storm damages, and Michigan’s *first ever* “Tornado Emergency” declared last month.
Last night’s storms per ABC News graphic below, though obviously a one off, are illustrative of my concerns.
“Most surprising for me was the maps that appear to show decreases in “tornado genesis” events in the Upper midwest, particularly in spring. Trying to square that with lived experience, including Insurance companies raising rates to compensate for increased hail and storm damages, and Michigan’s *first ever* “Tornado Emergency” declared last month.”
I’m waving my hands, and haven’t dug into any research, but it is possible that there is an increase in derechos and plain old hail-bearing thunderstorms along with a decline in tornadogenesis events in the upper midwest? One of Iowa’s most expensive weather disasters was a derecho a few years ago.
Or if they mean “events” as a day- there does appear to be, at the national level, a clear trend in having fewer days with tornadoes, but having larger numbers on the days that do produce them. That feels intuitively consistent with the observation of fewer rainfall events yet more rain when it happens – that specific trend has been seen most strongly in the Northeast, but the Midwest has the second-strongest signal for that (going by memory of one of the US climate reports from a while back).
It’s a common refrain with the media interviews with survivors of these destructive events (tornadoes, hurricanes, wildfires), that while they lost their home and most of their possessions, at least they survived. Sadly, many of these people never recover materially, and/or end up with PTSD. Even good insurance doesn’t cover all of the personal time and resources that you lose dealing with the disaster, and many who were just holding on financially are driven into poverty, addiction or suicide.
My own sisters and parents had the emotional and material resources, as well as significant family support out of the disaster zone, when the area was flooded after Katrina, but entire long-established low-income communities were wiped out and never recovered. The area got a lot of attention and support in 2005, but now that major disasters are more frequent, charities and government budgets are increasingly stretched. This is why I am so frustrated by people not at least mentally preparing for the worsening weather, and avoiding the topic altogether.