Month: January 2024

In California – A Climate-Plus El Nino Winter

Axios:

San Diego’s dangerous flash flood on Monday may not be the state’s last such event of the next couple of weeks, as a weather pattern favorable to atmospheric rivers takes shape across the Pacific Ocean. 

Why it matters: Atmospheric rivers are responsible for the majority of the Golden State’s precipitation, and are associated with some of its worst floods on record. 

Zoom in: On Monday, a relatively weak atmospheric river, along with favorable winds in the mid-to-upper atmosphere, combined to deliver a deluge to San Diego, with the city seeing 2.73 inches of rainfall. 

  • This ranked as its fourth-wettest day on record, as well as the wettest January day. 
  • Most of the rain there fell in just a three-hour period and focused on downtown San Diego, a region with poor stormwater runoff issues. This led to severe flooding and more than two-dozen water rescues, as Axios’ Andrew Keatts reports.
Continue reading “In California – A Climate-Plus El Nino Winter”

Human Cause of Climate Change Gradually Getting Through

New batch of Farmer interviews from rural Michigan coming.
Above, a clip from the highly respected Centennial Farmer and Former County Chair, John Tuckerman of Lenawee County, MI.
After initial skepticism, Tuckerman is convinced human activity is behind the climate change that he’s seen over the last 45 years, and clearly he’s been doing some reading on it.

Watch for new material soon.
Meanwhile, the human cause of climate change has not gotten thru to far too many – but my experience leads me to believe the issue is always in the room when clean energy is discussed, and even professional anti-clean energy shills have had to adjust their messaging to account for that creeping anxiety – hence the “renewables don’t really help climate change” talking points that have become part of their schtick.

Below, once again, researcher John Cook and others underline the overwhelming consensus among scientists.

Continue reading “Human Cause of Climate Change Gradually Getting Through”

EV Sales: Incompetence or Disinformation? Or Both?

Ever since General Motors “Killed the Electric Car” in the early 2000s, the Big 3 automakers have been clueless to their own best long term interests and dragged their feet on EVs, until it became clear that Tesla was had not only eaten their lunch but was raiding their refrigerator as well.
Real questions as to whether the GM, Ford, and Stellantis are going to catch up and survive this transition.

Above, analyst from research firm CFRA has some useful stats.
Next, really good analysis from a Bloomberg panelist.
“Some of these companies struggling with execution issues.”
“Slapdash effort” not enough.

Below, Climate Envoy John Kerry makes a salient point about the campaign of disinformation against EVs. (should start at about 5:40)

Continue reading “EV Sales: Incompetence or Disinformation? Or Both?”

Past Gas. Gas Exports are a Problem. Does Europe Even Need It?

Above, US fossil gas prices, showing vividly the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In the immediate aftermath, Europe was in crisis as Russia squeezed pipeline flows of gas, and the Nordstream pipelines under the Baltic Sea were sabotaged, possibly by Ukraine.


For a minute there, it seemed like hiking Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) exports might be a long term National Security priority for the US – but Europe has shaken off its dependency on Russian gas more quickly than imagined.

S&P Global:

Still relatively weak gas and power demand combined with strong renewable generation growth are set to offset lost Russian pipeline gas deliveries through 2024, further easing the energy crisis that struck Europe in 2022.

–

In power, demand is now only expected to recover to pre-crisis levels in 2026, with rising wind and solar capacity and increased hydro and nuclear production tightening the thermal gap.

S&P Global analysts forecast the biggest declines in 2024 for gas-fired generation, while coal and lignite generation in the 10 core European markets is seen flat after falling to a record low in 2023.

Yale Environment 360:

With war roiling energy markets, Europe has aimed to swap gas delivered by Russian pipeline for liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivered by ship, largely from the U.S. and Qatar. From the beginning of last year, Europe has added six new LNG terminals, expanded an existing terminal, and restored a dormant terminal.

But much of that new infrastructure may prove unnecessary as European gas consumption declines, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Europe’s recent efforts to build out renewables and curb gas consumption are paying off. After a surge in imported LNG in 2022, it has seen imports flatten out this year.

Continue reading “Past Gas. Gas Exports are a Problem. Does Europe Even Need It?”

Ford Taps Brakes on EV Truck – But the Future Remains Electric

Ford, having seen a mere 65 percent increase in sales from 2022 t0 2023, is tapping the brakes on production of the Ford Lightning pickup truck.

Fair enough.
The company underlines that this is a temporary slowdown for demand to catch up, not abandonment of the sector, which they know is the only way forward to remain a viable company.

What kind of trucks are selling? Plug in hybrids, foremost, as well as traditional ICE vehicles. Exactly what you’d think if there was uncertainty about the rollout of charging infrastructure (there is) as well as a well coordinated, fossil fueled anti-EV PR campaign ongoing.
I would hope that auto executives who understand the dynamics would start to mount a counterattack on the information side, because the demand for EVs is rocketing globally, and not going to turn around. The Chinese, among others, know this, and are eyeing the US market hungrily.

Continue reading “Ford Taps Brakes on EV Truck – But the Future Remains Electric”

Nikki Haley Targeted Again by Climate Protesters

Aim improving.

Van Gogh can breath easier.

Graph of the Week: Models vs 2023 Global Temperatures

Above, good agreement between historical modeling and actual measurements thru 2023.
Note that while last year was an intense one, global temps continue to track pretty closely to predictions of the last 50 years.
What made the year so wild, and what is rattling a lot of observers, even senior scientists, is that while the models have been spot on for global average, they have not captured the intensity of extreme events, which pop out when you slice the data different ways.
For instance, looking below at anomalies in the September-November quartile, you see just how sharp some of those extremes have been.

Decarb Bros Don’t Want to Hear you Bitch

Save the Drama for your Mama.

We can DECARB THIS MFER and get YOKED, and make some MONEY and crush a NATTY and get YOKED.

They have Merch.

Been meaning to post this for months.

New York Times:

Decarb bros believe it’s all going to be OK.

They believe that I.P.A.s go best with party chat about smart-grid management and electric vehicle infrastructure. They believe in trading memes on Twitter and in messaging groups, formed around their zeal for technology as the answer to a lower-emissions future.

And the bros, a loose affiliation of mostly young researchers, climate tech workers, policymakers and people following along online, believe in making fun of themselves, at least a little. See: “Decarb bros,” a term they have embraced regardless of gender identity or weight-lifting ability.

What they do not believe in is wallowing.

“We are against doomerism,” said Billy Casagrande, who works at Scale Microgrids, a climate tech start-up. He was referring to a pessimistic view that humanity has passed the point of being able to do anything about climate change.

The consensus among young people seems to be “that we are screwed as it relates to climate,” the self-described decarb bro, who is 25, continued. Mr. Casagrande, one of dozens at a monthly meet-up in Brooklyn’s Williamsburg neighborhood for clean energy enthusiasts, believes there is another way.

Continue reading “Decarb Bros Don’t Want to Hear you Bitch”

Once in a Lifetime Two-fer in the Midwest this Spring

Musician above provided an unsettling metaphor for a lot of my professional life.

Anyway, turns out there are two lifetime bucket list events happening in the heartland this spring. A once in two centuries cicada hatch sounds right up my alley.
The one I already knew about was the April 8 total eclipse, that I put on my calendar back when I missed the last eclipse 7 or 8 years ago. Not sure how many more chances I’ll have.