they form far offshore, many days before they can threaten much more than a passing ship
scientists study them and develop forecasts of their future path and strength
while they wait, people have days to hunker down or evacuate, if need be, depending on the storm’s expected power
Climate change is disrupting that rhythm in dangerous ways. It isn’t necessarily making hurricanes more frequent, but it is making them much more likely to develop into Otis-like monsters overnight.
The fastest-strengthening Atlantic tropical storms intensified almost 29% more quickly, on average, between 2001 and 2020 than similar storms 30 years earlier, according to a study published last week in the Nature journal Scientific Reports. The number of storms that have gone from a Category 1 or weaker to a Category 3 or stronger in just 36 hours has more than doubled in that time. Prime examples include 2017’s deadly Hurricane Maria; Harvey and Irma from that same year; Ida in 2021 and Ian in 2022.
How has climate change made this more likely? The oceans have absorbed more than 90% of the heat humans have created by burning fossil fuels and releasing carbon dioxide and other planet-warming greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. That has pushed ocean water to record highs. And that superheated water is like funny-car fuel for hurricanes.
Hurricane track forecasts have improved steadily over the past few decades, yet forecasting hurricane intensity remains challenging. Of special concern are the rare instances of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall, catching forecasters and populations off guard, thereby risking large casualties. Here, we review two historical examples of such events and use scaling arguments and models to show that rapid intensification just before landfall is likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms.
Gretchen Whitmer is a rising star in Democratic politics, with some speculation about what her future plans might be after her second term as Michigan Governor. She has staked a considerable amount of political capital on a clean energy plan designed to jumpstart Michigan’s economy, and climate response. A key part of that plan will be a siting reform bill that places primary authority for siting solar, wind and battery projects with the states Public Service Commission. Precdictably, a fossil fuel organized, right wing influence campaign has mobilized against the measure. Although a number of Republicans know that the current system is unworkable and broken, clearly a decision has been made that the popular Governor must not be afforded a win. Some Democrats in the legislature are in closely divided districts and being targeted heavily in social media campaigns. Passage of this bill will be a key test of Her Honor’s ability to knock heads and crack whips in her Party.
Below, the Michigan Conservative Energy Forum’s Ed Rivet describes the need for this legislation.
Below, multi generation farmer Clara Ostrander describes her family’s experience with the intimidation and harassment tactics of the anti clean energy brigade.
General Motors CEO Mary Barra said this week that her company is “moderating the pace” of its electric vehicle rollout.
This means that one of my most anticipated new EVs of the year, the Chevrolet Equinox EV, is getting bumped back to a 2024 release. The Equinox EV, with pricing likely to start at about $30,000 before tax credits, and battery range of about 250 miles, has a chance of hitting a sweet spot of affordability and features.
While we wait for that model and others that are coming soon, there are many other EVs that deserve a look. I spoke with Alex Knizek, manager of auto testing and insights for Consumer Reports, about what he sees as the best options.
But first, here’s a snapshot of the market. In the third quarter, U.S, consumers bought 313,086 electric vehicles, which was about 8 percent of U.S. sales of cars and light trucks, according to Cox Automotive. The growth in market share has been rapid, rising from 1 percent in 2019.
Concerningly for legacy automakers, a list of Global best-selling TVs is dominated by Tesla, and China.
Will be studied for years, or at least, til it happens, inevitably, again. No climate havens.- least of all on the coasts. Images below show the contrast between model projections and the actual storm on landfall.
Turns out new House Speaker Mike Johnson used to be a mouthpiece for the “Answers in Genesis” Bible literalism group that has a “Noah’s Ark Encounter” museum in Kentucky. Mr Johnson was legal advocate for the group in its drive to secure taxpayer funding for the project.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – Answers in Genesis, which unsuccessfully sought tourism tax incentives for a biblical theme park in northern Kentucky, said Tuesday it will file a federal lawsuit against Kentucky for “viewpoint discrimination.”
The group expects to file suit on Thursday, attorney Mike Johnson said.
Ken Ham, president and CEO of Answers in Genesis, said in a video posted to answersingenesis.org that the proposed lawsuit involves “freedom of religion, free exercise of religion, freedom of speech in this great nation of America.”
“Numerous bloggers and media outlets have spread a lot of misinformation about the tax rebate program and also a lot of false information about employment laws as they relate to the Ark Encounter project,” Ham said.
Editor’s note: The following op-ed appeared on Sunday on the website of Kentucky’s largest newspaper, the Courier-Journal of Louisville. Written by an attorney assisting AiG in matters related to the Ark Encounter, the op-ed dispels some widely held myths associated with the construction of the Ark that major media (e.g., The New York Times) and secular bloggers have been circulating.
Mike Johnson is chief counsel of Freedom Guard, a nonprofit, constitutional law organization that has assisted Answers in Genesis with its Ark Encounter project.
One would expect that any project that will bring millions of dollars in new capital investment, create hundreds of jobs and be a tremendous asset to the communities of Northern Kentucky would be enthusiastically welcomed by every Kentuckian. But because the project at issue is the Ark Encounter theme park, a few radical secularists and others are doing their best to oppose the park and misrepresent both the law and the related facts. Fortunately, the secularists’ arguments hold no water.
The opponents’ interpretation of the Constitution is one that has been repeatedly rejected by the courts. There is simply no question that the commonwealth’s allowance of tax refund incentives in exchange for the Ark Encounter’s extraordinary economic impact to the area will fully comply with the safeguards of the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment.
The U.S. Supreme Court has long acknowledged that when a government’s financial benefits program is facially neutral toward religion (as the Kentucky Tourism Development Act certainly is), the provision of funding to an applicant who may happen to have a particular religious identity or viewpoint is in no way a violation of the Constitution.
Kentucky officials are smart to enthusiastically embrace the Ark Encounter, and the millions of tourists the park will welcome to the area from every viewpoint, race, color, religion and creed. Answers in Genesis aims to encourage critical thought and respectful public debate about the various attractions and ideas that will be presented at its park, and that is the beauty and essence of free speech.
If the secularists were truly proponents of the First Amendment as they claim, they would want to welcome that civic discourse (and tremendous economic development), rather than stamp it out. When the Ark Project sails, everybody will benefit—even those who are stubbornly trying to sink it.
Bigot, Homophobe – check. January 6 insurrection was “legitimate protest” – check. Lead election denial efforts in House – check. Supports nationwide abortion ban – check. Believes man-made climate change is a hoax – check.
Newly minted House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who won the gavel Wednesday after three prior Republican nominees failed to reach a majority, is a longtime ally of the oil industry and will be perhaps the most vocal skeptic of the scientific consensus on climate change ever to hold the speakership.
Johnson, whose district includes the onetime oil industry hub of Shreveport, received a 100 percent rating from the pro-fossil fuel American Energy Alliance in 2022, along with every other Republican in Louisiana’s House delegation. –
Individuals and PACs associated with the oil and gas industry have donated $23,800 to Johnson in the 2023-2024 campaign cycle, the largest amount he received from any group save retired donors, according to data from OpenSecrets.org. In the 2021-2022 cycle, the sector donated $84,350.
In 2017, Johnson denied human-caused climate change at a town hall, telling attendees, “The climate is changing, but the question is, is it being caused by natural cycles over the span of the Earth’s history? Or is it changing because we drive SUVs? I don’t believe in the latter. I don’t think that’s the primary driver.”
Johnson has a lifetime score of 2 percent on climate and environmental issues from the League of Conservation Voters (LCV), which excoriated him in a statement following his election.
Johnson’s ascent could mark a major shift in rhetoric around energy, environmental and climate issues from the highest rungs of the leadership ladder: He has a record of downplaying the climate crisis and questioning the science linking human activity to global warming.
On Tuesday morning, there was no Hurricane Otis. Instead, there was just a tropical storm carrying winds of about 50 miles per hour. Every single model used to predict the behavior of such storms called for Otis to remain a tropical storm. Instead, it blew up over a period of just nine hours, becoming a raging Category 5 hurricane that struck the coast of Mexico just south of Acapulco overnight with sustained winds of 165 mph.
Not only was the storm unprecedented in its behavior, it’s also by far the most powerful storm in this region going back over 50 years. The last severe storm to strike along this coast was a Category 2 storm in 1968, which remains one of the deadliest storms in Mexican history. Expectations are that nothing, absolutely nothing, in the region has been built to meet a storm like Otis. –
To give a sense of how unexpected this storm was, on the graph below, all the solid lines are the predictions for tropical storm Otis. The dotted line shows what actually happened.
While global temperature records are not yet in for the full month of October 2023, real-time reanalysis products increasingly allow scientists to track global temperatures on a daily basis.
Reanalysis pulls together a huge amount of data from satellites, weather balloons, aeroplanes, weather stations, ships and buoys to provide a detailed look at how the Earth’s climate is changing in real-time.
Modern reanalysis products, such as JRA-55 and ERA5, use state-of-the-art methods to produce records that align well with traditional surface temperature datasets over recent decades.
The figure (above) shows the daily global temperature anomaly values from the JRA-55 reanalysis product for each day since the record began in 1958 (grey lines). It shows the current year to date (2023) in red and the prior record warm year, 2016, in blue. Nearly every single day since mid-June 2023 has been warmer than any prior days since the JRA-55 record began in 1958 – and, potentially, much further into the past.
New company Ascend is leveraging federal grants to build a new EV battery recycling facility in deep red Kentucky. Great reporting as usual, from CNBC’s Diana Olick. It’s not the only battery recycling start-up. Redwood Materials is another, started by a Tesla alumnus.
Redwood Materials said on Tuesday it had raised more than $1 billion in new funding as the battery materials firm, founded by former Tesla (TSLA.O) executive JB Straubel, seeks to expand its operations in the United States.
The company in February received a conditional commitment for a $2 billion loan from the U.S. Energy Department to build a $3.5-billion recycling and re-manufacturing complex in Nevada for electric-vehicle battery materials.
The latest funding round for Redwood, founded in 2017 by Straubel, was co-led by Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Capricorn’s Technology Impact Fund and funds advised by T. Rowe Price Associates.
“We will use our Series D funding to continue building our capacity, expanding the domestic battery supply chain and allowing our customers to purchase battery materials made in the US,” Redwood said.
