General Motors CEO Mary Barra said this week that her company is “moderating the pace” of its electric vehicle rollout.
This means that one of my most anticipated new EVs of the year, the Chevrolet Equinox EV, is getting bumped back to a 2024 release. The Equinox EV, with pricing likely to start at about $30,000 before tax credits, and battery range of about 250 miles, has a chance of hitting a sweet spot of affordability and features.
While we wait for that model and others that are coming soon, there are many other EVs that deserve a look. I spoke with Alex Knizek, manager of auto testing and insights for Consumer Reports, about what he sees as the best options.
But first, here’s a snapshot of the market. In the third quarter, U.S, consumers bought 313,086 electric vehicles, which was about 8 percent of U.S. sales of cars and light trucks, according to Cox Automotive. The growth in market share has been rapid, rising from 1 percent in 2019.
Concerningly for legacy automakers, a list of Global best-selling TVs is dominated by Tesla, and China.
The shift to EVs needs to happen quickly if the United States and the world are going to make rapid progress in cutting carbon emissions. But we don’t yet know how large the public’s appetite is for electric vehicles, or whether auto dealers are ready to sell them in large numbers.
The stakes and the uncertainty can be overwhelming, but there are some encouraging signs.
In the first half of 2023, U.S. customers bought 556,707 electric vehicles, which was up 47 percent from the first half of last year, according to Kelley Blue Book.
EV market share was 7.2 percent of the U.S. market for cars and light trucks, which was up from 5.7 percent in 2022 and 3.1 percent in 2021.
But some indicators are less encouraging.
One of them is how demand for some EV models is not keeping up with the growth in supply.
“While demand is increasing, production is increasing faster,” said Michelle Krebs, an analyst for Cox Automotive.
This month, U.S. dealers have an average of 103 days of supply of EVs, which is roughly double the average of 53 days of supply of all models on the market, according to Cox Automotive.
This is a metric that considers how long it would take to run out of a model if the sales rate remains the same and no new inventory arrives. A good rule of thumb is that 60 days of supply, or two months, is optimal. Note that the figures don’t include Tesla or Rivian, since those companies’ direct-to-consumer approach to sales limits the ability to collect data.
The Kia EV6, Nissan Leaf and Volkswagen ID.4 are among the EV models that have at least 120 days of supply.
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One of the models that’s got my attention is the Chevrolet Bolt, which is in the middle of a comeback story. The model had a major battery recall in 2021 and a long pause in production, contributing to stretches of poor sales.
General Motors, which owns the Chevrolet brand, said in April that it was planning to discontinue the model, citing the need to retool the Bolt’s factory in Michigan to build other EVs like the Silverado EV pickup.
Meanwhile, the Bolt was turning into a strong seller. The model more than tripled its sales in the first half of this year compared to the same period in the prior year, and it is now the country’s third-highest selling EV.
This week, GM CEO Mary Barra said the company has changed its mind about discontinuing the Bolt. Instead of going away, the model will get a redesign that will include technology upgrades.
“Our customers love today’s Bolt,” she said. “It has been delivering record sales and some of the highest customer satisfaction and loyalty scores in the industry.”
The company didn’t say when the new Bolt would go on sale. The current versions are likely to stop production late this year, followed by a hiatus until the new design or designs become available.
The Bolt is an important vehicle in the EV market because of its relatively low price, with the subcompact hatchback version starting at $26,500 and the subcompact SUV version, called the “Bolt EUV,” starting at $27,800. The model also has long range relative to the price, with a battery capable of going more than 250 miles on a charge.
And the Bolt is an example of an EV that is selling about as fast as dealers are getting them, with 30 days of supply for the hatchback and 23 days for the SUV, two of the lowest numbers in the market.
Krebs of Cox Automotive said to expect ups and downs as automakers feel their way through the shift to EVs.
“We have to understand this is the biggest transition in the history of the auto industry since Henry Ford made the moving assembly line,” she said. “It is not going to be linear. There are going to be big bumps in the road.”
In 1991 Geoffrey Moore wrote Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers. It was an “instant classic” in the business world (a third updated edition was published in 2014).
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“My {gadget, ICE vehicle} works just fine for me now, why would I want to go through the hassle of making a change to the New Thing?”
In the US, don’t underestimate the push-back from car dealerships, which make their money in the long term via their service departments. Owners of car dealerships also happen to be some of the most influential (and rich and conservative) businessmen in their local communities.