Tampa Bay weather cast has some good takes on Ian’s possible path.
Key: as the steering winds are expected to break down as the storm moves up Florida’s west coast, meaning the storm’s motions become unpredictable and random.
Landfall south of Tampa Bay will mean winds blowing offshore, from the northeast – huge differential if the storm hangs offshore or comes ashore north of Tampa, which will drive winds right into the mouth of the bay and bring huge, possibly lengthy, storm surge.