Climate denier and frequent Fox News talking head Chris Horner of the tobacco and Oil funded Competitive Enterprise Institute used to have a favorite laugh line in regard to global temperature – “How do you measure the temperature of a planet? Where do you stick the thermometer?”
Actually, the planet has a very sensitive thermometer that has reliably continued to show the heat buildup, even in a decade of slower surface temp rise – and that’s the ocean.
Part of the “This is Not Cool” series for the Yale Forum on Climate Change & the Media, this new video includes interviews with an all star team including Dr. Kevin Trenberth, Dr. Jerry Meehl, oceanographer Josh Willis, and others. There will likely be a second video on this topic soon, as boiling down the issue of climate sensitivity is more than one can do in a 6 minute time slot, and I still have a number of interviews that did not make it into this one.
It’s no surprise that the initial line of denialist attack on the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), first installment due out later this month, will be the issue of “climate sensitivity”, that is, how much warming can we expect from a given level of greenhouse forcing. A number of high profile media spots have lately raised the question about whether scientists will be slightly lowering the estimates from the canonical 3° C plus or minus 1.5° or so, to maybe 2.5C or thereabouts. It’s a distinction without a difference is the first response – but even to get to that first response you have to understand something even more fundamental – a slightly lower rate of surface temperature rise over the last decade or so does not change the fact that the planet continues to gather heat. That heat is going somewhere, and has an effect on the system – surface thermometers are only one indicator of a relatively small portion of that heat imbalance.
For more maniacal viewers, I’ll also be posting some of the original skype interviews in complete form in coming days and weeks.
Cherry picking warm ARGO data while discarding ARGO data from floats which are too cool to fit the theory won’t save your crock of a scare-story.
Satellites are easy to find – sea level is rising. (http://sealevel.colorado.edu) That’s either due to thermal expansion, or melting ice. You can argue about the percentages, but neither of those happen without added heat. If you don’t like the thermometer data, or the argo data, throw it out. The Planet’s message is clear enough.
Satellite altimetry is calibrated to theory, not a benchmark. It has to be, since the position of the satellites isn’t known to an accuracy of more than +/- 75mm at best. And before the data was hidden from the public, the European ENVISAT system was showing a fall in sea level from 2007-2012/8 and a lower rate of increase than the Colorado dataset.
got it. the sea level conspiracy. notify lower Manhattan.
I believe I asked you this once before, Tallbloke, but instead of answering me you initiated a law suit against me.
What is it that you gain by trying to make the future a place that will be much worse for our children to live in?
Accounting for all available data is the opposite of cherry picking.
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/basin_data.html
Not surprising that tallbloke didn’t even try to back up his baseless accusation.
He’s obviously concerned that any rise in sea level would require recalibration of dowsing equipment. http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/09/04/doug-proctor-dowsing-and-divining-the-direction-of-debate/
If the opportunity arises, I will be the first in the market to do a story on this. If I can do half as good a job as you did, I’ll do twice as good as I did last time.
Meehl was very clear on this. I will be posting the whole interview with him and others over coming weeks.
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Peter, several place in the video you include as visual background the Earth globe in gray-scale showing, in exquisite detail, what I believe is a dynamic, CGM (?) simulation of the atmosphere.
Where can I find that video with whatever accompanying information and explanation as was originally released?
Thanks
there are several fitting that description. identify the time frame in the video you are interested in, and perhaps I can be specific.
Sorry…
0:31-0:40, and 6:26-6:34
Thanks
see here
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GISSTemperature/giss_temperature2.php
FYI, the claims made about ENVISAT are a mish mosh of the usual. The subject has been addressed in detail at Skeptical Science with the usual results. There is no fall in sea level. It is cherry picking a statistically irrelevant too short 4 year time period from a single satellite with publicly known calibration problems at that time. The other satellites and tide gauges are all showing sea level increase. Also, just as with global temperature, cherry-picking short time scales allows any selection bias to indicate (erroneously) any result desired. The Skeptical Science moderator finally had to eject the denier for this canard, because of their strict policy. Listening to the same fallacious arguments about short time spans and data cherry picked from only one measurement source was just too much.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php?a=68&p=4
Our recent “the temperature has not risen lately” canard is of similar variety. We have not had an El Nino for a long time and when we do, that will be the end of that. Still, its the same annoying nonsense. Focusing on noise while ignoring the trend.
It seems many deniers have a brain deficit that doesn’t enable them to think more than whats happening tomorrow or what happened yesterday. An exceptionally short timespan in their mental models of time. Sometimes they do however expand those to include the best observation to support their beliefs. This is quite likely a mental damage from looking too much at stock market graphs. They also seem to have the same idea that climate is like the stock market, sometimes it goes up, sometimes it goes down. This is obviously closely linked to the gambling-gene where the more unlikely an event is to happen, the more likely they are to bet on that as that gives the highest reward. Hence the constant betting on that “this is all natural”.
The best pill I can recommend to fix this ailment is to study some real climate science and acknowledge that a lot of thinking has been put into it, hence there is a high chance that what scientists are saying might be true after all.
Here in Denver we not only set the record high temperature of 97 degrees for Sept. 6th, we set the all time record high temperature for September! We are now experiencing “heat days” for our elementary schools that don’t have air conditioning. I believe we’ve had more excused class due to heat days than to “snow days”. This is in Denver, a mile above sea level!