Since the severe winter storm Fern swept across the heartland of North America in January, the Department of Energy has been on full blast messaging mode with the idea that it is only “baseload” fossil fuel power plants that allow for stability during times of grid stress.
Data is somewhat different. Gas power plants are particularly vulnerable to extreme cold snaps, and even coal facilities can, and do, fail when they are most needed.
Overall, the biggest bottleneck is not generation, but Transmission.
After Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 and Winter Storm Elliott nearly two years later, policymakers and grid operators took steps to improve the ability of both power plants and fuel delivery infrastructure to withstand harsh weather. Yet despite those measures, Fern knocked out power to more than a million people and caused dozens of deaths, with most of the damage in the South. Nearly 300,000 customers are still without power.
Ice damaged local distribution networks, but power outages tied to mechanical and fuel-related failures exposed deeper vulnerabilities. Above all, Fern’s impact underscores that exclusive reliance on natural gas infrastructure leaves the grid ill-equipped to meet conditions during severe weather, let alone able to accommodate projected growth in demand over the next 10 years, including from the rapid expansion of AI. To make the grid as resilient as possible, it is essential that policymakers and grid operators couple near-term upgrades with longer-term interregional transfer capacity increases.
Post-Uri and Elliott grid fixes
Fern wreaked so much havoc despite the warning signs from Uri and Elliott, which together claimed more than 300 lives as natural gas delivery failures left vulnerable customers without heat or electricity. Matters were made worse when many so-called black start generators, which are used to restart the grid after outages, failed to perform in two large grid networks, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the PJM Interconnection.
Operators took steps to strengthen both systems, tightening coordination with generators and fuel suppliers and hardening equipment against the elements. Yet without new major transmission lines, grid regions remain constrained in their ability to access lower-cost power from areas unaffected by winter weather.
Uri, Elliott, and Fern occurred under different circumstances, but they revealed the same underlying pressure point: the power grid’s dependence on natural gas during winter storms. Fern has caused natural gas prices to increase beyond those from Uri in some areas. These market-driven price swings complicate efforts to maintain affordable and reliable power during brutally cold weather, prompting renewed debate over the optimal fuel mix for winter reliability.
Substituting coal for natural gas may appear able to reduce storm-related price volatility, but it will simply introduce new fuel supply issues. That’s because coal plants are just as vulnerable to cold because coal piles can freeze in low temperatures. Strengthening the transmission system through interregional transfer capacity is a more resilient solution than depending on locally available and weather-vulnerable fuel under crisis conditions.’o address reliability during Fern, U.S. Energy Secretary Christopher Wright issued emergency orders providing an immediate stopgap. Over the longer term, however, long-range, high voltage transmission is essential to building a more resilient grid by linking regions and allowing power to flow where it is needed most. Efforts in Congress to streamline and speed the permitting of these lines are encouraging.
In the meantime, the Department of Energy’s Speed to Power initiativeoffers a promising path for practical interim solutions. The agency can provide technical assistance and funding to help utilities and grid operators identify where additional grid capacity can be added and establish best practices for grid flexibility. Increasing the capacity of the existing transmission system through reconductoring, including the use of advanced materials such as carbon fiber, can relieve grid congestion during periods of high demand without requiring additional infrastructure to be built. Large electricity users that can temporarily curtail their power demand when resources are limited can further improve reliability by easing pressure on the grid and reducing the risk of blackouts.
But even if implemented, these solutions still won’t produce the mostresilient grid possible. That can only be accomplished with long distance, high voltage transmission.
Winter Storm Fern Power Plant Outages
At least six power plants were confirmed to have experienced outages since the inclement weather began, either due to mechanical issues or fuel-supply disruptions, or for other reasons. There likely are others that have not reported or been confirmed. It is also possible some of the noted outages below are not due to the weather, but nonetheless are compiled in this summary if the outage coincides during this period of adverse weather from Winter Storm Fern.
Birdsboro Power Station, 525-MW Outage in Pennsylvania
An equipment failure due to Winter Storm Fern was reported at the 525-megawatt (MW), gas-fired Birdsboro Power Station, in Birdsboro, Pennsylvania, roughly one hour’s drive north of Philadelphia. The outage began on Sunday, and it could remain through Thursday. 28. Strategic Value Partners owns the plant. Subscribers to Industrial Info’s Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Power Plant Database can view the plant profile.
Lieberman Power Station, 178-MW Reduced Capacity in Louisiana
178 MW was reported offline at the Lieberman Power Station in Mooringsport, Louisiana, in Southwest Power Pool territory. The natural gas-fired plant was running on Tuesday at reduced capacity (78% offline) due to a fuel supply issue. The units were expected to remain running at reduced capacity through Tuesday, but the duration could extend. The plant is owned by Southwestern Electric Power Company, a subsidiary of AEP.
D B Wilson Power Station, 509-MW Outage in Kentucky
The 509-MW, coal-fired DB Wilson Power Station in the MISO market southwest of Louisville, Kentucky, incurred a boiler leak on January 22, forcing the full unit offline. This outage is unlikely to be directly due to the weather, but it is reported in this compilation since every outage impacts an already strained grid.
Brunner Island Power Station, 363 MW in Pennsylvania
A boiler leak occurred at the 363-MW, gas-fired Unit 01 at the 1,558-MW Brunner Island Power Station in York Haven, Pennsylvania, taking that unit fully offline. That outage was estimated to run from January 25 to this Friday or beyond. Talen Energy owns the plant.
West Deptford Power Station, 755-MW Outage in New Jersey
The 755-MW West Deptford Power Station in West Deptford, New Jersey, had an unplanned outage due to electrical issues that took its natural gas-fired units offline. The event was estimated to be a two-day event running from January 25 to Monday, January 26, but could extend beyond. LS Power owns the plant.
Martin Lake Power Station, 793 MW Rescheduled in Texas
The 793-MW coal-fired Unit 01 at the 2,379-MW Martin Lake Power Station in Tatum, Texas, had been planned to be brought back online by January 24, but this was extended to Tuesday. This was not originally a weather-related issue, but rather a turbine fire on November 27, 2024, and work continued into this last week of January and experienced a delay in the work being done.
Key Takeaways
- A number of power plant outages were confirmed in Winter Storm Fern’s path.
- At least six power plants were confirmed to have experienced outages since the inclement weather began.
- The outages were caused by mechanical issues, fuel-supply disruptions other reasons.
On January 24th, the day before the storm, PJM gas generation maxed out at 60 GW during the evening peak. However, on January 25th, the day of the blizzard, gas generation fell to 50 GW, even as prices remained high across the entire region and expensive oil generators made up the gap.
And the picture becomes clearer when looking at data from Monday morning, January 26th. Based on PJM data from GridStatus.io, during the 8:00 a.m. morning peak demand, gas-burning generation was down 10 GW, coal-fired generation was down 2 GW, and oil-burning generation was down 3 GW, all compared to the same time on January 24th.
Roughly 10% of U.S. natural gas production is estimated to be offline as freezing conditions interfere with wells, pipelines and processing facilities, placing the brunt of the disruption on gas markets.
Goodyear Bayport (GT) shut down its chemical plant in Pasadena, Texas, on Saturday ahead of the cold snap, according to a notice posted Sunday on the Community Awareness Emergency Response website.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) said it had taken some units offline at its Baytown refining complex due to freezing weather, while Celanese (CE) reported winding down operations at its Houston-area chemical facility as conditions deteriorated.
The storm has also affected manufacturers outside the Gulf Coast. Texas Instruments said its utility curtailed natural gas deliveries to its Richardson, Texas, site in the Dallas area, according to a regulatory filing.
U.S. natural gas output has fallen by roughly 10 billion cubic feet in recent days as extreme cold has frozen infrastructure and restricted supply. At the same time, demand for heating fuel has jumped by about 18 billion cubic feet, according to data from BloombergNEF.
‘..the most resilient grid possible … can only be accomplished with long distance, high voltage transmission.’ New England closed a bunch of nuclear reactors over the last twenty years, claiming that they could make up the gap with power imports from Quebec’s hydro. But increasingly, Quebec is importing power during winter cold spells. ISO NE burns oil instead – gas is being diverted to home heating. New England’s nukes, and Texas’, all ran at full power during Fern. MISO’s only managed 92.6%.
The fact that people are stupid—more precisely, are afflicted by SISS, pSychologically Induced Stupidity Syndrome—and do stupid and insane things, and DON’T do wise things, does not make insane things like nuclear reactors sane.