Good report above makes it clear that although some drive exists to exploit fossil fuels in Africa, there is a clear tailwind for renewable development, particularly the huge solar, wind, and hydro resources, and lack of a built out grid system, which encourages distributed resources.
Pakistan has shown how quickly cheap solar panels can upend assumptions about energy demand. Africa could be next.
The first evidence of a take-off in solar in Africa is now here:
- The last 12 months saw a big rise in Africa’s solar panel imports. Imports from China rose 60% in the last 12 months to 15,032 MW. Over the last two years, the imports of solar panels outside of South Africa have nearly tripled from 3,734 MW to 11,248 MW.
- The rise happened across Africa. 20 countries set a new record for the imports of solar panels in the 12 months to June 2025. 25 countries imported at least 100 MW, up from 15 countries 12 months before.
- These solar panels will provide a lot of electricity. The solar panels imported into Sierra Leone in the last 12 months, if installed, would generate electricity equivalent to 61% of the total reported 2023 electricity generation, significantly adding to electricity supply. They would add electricity equivalent to over 5% to total reported electricity generation in 16 countries.
- Solar panel imports will reduce fuel imports. The savings from avoiding diesel can repay the cost of a solar panel within six months in Nigeria, and even less in other countries. In nine of the top ten solar panel importers, the import value of refined petroleum eclipses the import value of solar panels by a factor of between 30 to 107.
This surge is still in its early days. Pakistan experienced an immense solar boom in the last two years, but Africa is not the next Pakistan – yet. However, change happens quickly. And the first evidence is now here.
Initial analysis suggests the growth may be driven more in distributed solar than in utility-scale solar
Pakistan is an interesting case study for African policymakers to consider. GDP per capita, at $6,950, is similar to the average of $5,460 in sub-Saharan Africa, according to IMF data.
And, like many African countries, Pakistan has wrestled with an unreliable power supply for many years. Switching to solar is providing Pakistani households with a back-up to unreliable grid electricity, and a much more cost-effective alternative to diesel generators.
All this raises the question: could Pakistan’s bottom-up solar revolution provide a model for the continent to emulate?
While large swathes of Africa boast some of the world’s best conditions for generating solar energy, until now the continent has lagged behind other regions in actually deploying solar capacity. International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) suggest Africa has installed just 1% of global solar capacity, compared to 62% in Asia.
While those figures might also focus on larger-scale projects, experts say that the vast majority of Africa’s solar power is indeed deployed on large sites that generate power for either utilities or large commercial and industrial companies. A spokesperson for the African Solar Industry Association (AFSIA) told African Business that residential solar probably accounts for around 2-3% of total installed solar capacity outside South Africa. In South Africa, the spokesperson estimated the figure is around 5%.
Intriguingly, however, there is some evidence that this is beginning to change.
A new report from Ember shows that Africa’s solar panel imports from China have grown by 60% in the past year, reaching 15 GW. Some 20 African countries have set a new record for solar imports within the past 12 months. Outside South Africa, the continent has tripled its imports within the past two years.
The “massive pick-up” of solar imports into Africa could quickly be transformative for the energy systems of some countries, Jones says.
Ember’s report states that if Sierra Leone installs all the panels it has imported from China in the last year, the electricity it could generate would be equivalent to 61% of the country’s reported electricity generation in 2023.
The export data used by Ember does not show how solar panels will be used. Given that the largest solar projects in Sierra Leone have a planned capacity of only 25 MW to 50 MW, it is fair to assume that a large share of the 138 MW the country has imported in the last year is destined for rooftops.
The logic of installing rooftop solar is hard to ignore. Ember’s report notes that a 420-Watt solar panel, which costs around $60 in Nigeria, would generate 550 kilowatt hours of electricity in a year. By contrast, $60 of diesel would only provide 257 kilowatt hours. For those that can afford it, therefore, an investment in a solar panel would pay for itself within around six months.