I don’t eat beef. I don’t miss it.
But a lot of people do, and for a number of reasons, including climate amplified drought, prices are going thru the roof.
Washington Post:
Red meat prices are skyrocketing in the United States, the world’s largest consumer and producer of beef. Beef and veal prices surged 11.3 percent in July over the year, according to the most recent consumer price index report. That’s nearly four times the price jump of food overall during the same period.
And it’s not just the U.S. where consumer beef prices are reaching record highs this summer.
Avalos said he’s changing his own grocery shopping habits. Along with his wife and two kids, he’ll eat red meat only once a week — or shrink his weekly portions.
“We used to eat meat every single day,” Avalos said. “Now, we get two pounds, and we try to make that last all week. Before, we used to eat that in a sitting.”
One of the drivers of spiking beef costs is a drought that has ravaged U.S. cattle in key meat-producing states since 2022, causing cattle volumes to collapse this year to their lowest recorded levels since 1951. And now, the Trump administration’s tariffs are hitting major beef suppliers such as Brazil — and are set to push prices for American consumers even higher.
Cattle volumes always cycle, rising for about five years before falling for another five. But the most recent downturn proved particularly severe and prolonged, said Peter Galbo, the head of U.S. consumer staples equity research at Bank of America.
Three years ago, a severe drought hit three of the most important beef-producing states: Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska. In response, ranchers slaughtered cattle early to spare them from hunger, which boosted supply in the short run but shrank it the medium and long run because it meant smaller subsequent calf populations. As a result, beef prices began ticking higher.
Under such conditions, there’s a bigger incentive to send cattle to the slaughterhouse, even if it means a smaller herd later, Peel said.
“You can either eat her now or save her to reproduce for further meat production, but you can’t do both,” said Peel, who expects it will take years for herds to bounce back. “Cattle have one calf at a time. It’s a slow process.”
It drives up inflation. Lowering interest rates and tariffs and trade wars do little to bring inflaton down. One of the many problems that wan’t go away with shouting MAGA slogans and propaganda and made upp statistics. Trump can’t solve them and must be removed and replaced with someone who knows how the economy works.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a66ccf7c-ab2b-45a6-932e-34815e8871e4_1536x1380.png
I like this graph because it shows clearly what inputs drive how much of the emissions, and where we can improve even the low-impact foods we need to get most of our Calories from.
More expensive meat lowers the comparative cost of meat substitutes like plant-based Impossible Meat, precision fermentation and cultured meat. The alternatives have yet to have the cost savings of scaled up production so we might be at the tipping point.