Renewable energy will overtake coal to become the world’s top source of electricity “by 2026 at the latest”, according to new forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The rise of renewables is being driven by extremely rapid growth in wind and solar output, which topped 4,000 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2024 and will pass 6,000TWh by 2026.
Wind and solar are increasingly under attack from populist politicians on the right, such as US president Donald Trump and Reform in the UK.
Nevertheless, they will together meet more than 90% of the increase in global electricity demand out to 2026, the IEA says, while modest growth for hydro power will add to renewables’ rise.
With nuclear and gas also reaching record highs by 2026, coal-fired generation is set to decline – driven by falls in China and the EU – meaning that power-sector emissions will decline, too.
The chart above illustrates these profound shifts in the global electricity mix – in particular, the meteoric rise of renewables, driven by wind and solar.
With China’s grid, more coal power gets cranked up in times of very high demand, so I think higher, more lasting heat events (especially if very hot at night) can still trigger more significant coal use. Renewables are chasing a rising demand curve.
The climate makes no distinction between CO2 released to make electricity, and CO2 generated for any other reason. Last year the increase in coal demand in China (1.3 exajoules), India (1.2 EJ), and Southeast Asia (0.7 EJ, total 3.2 EJ) was very nearly three times the decrease in coal use in the European Union (-0.6 EJ), the United States (-0.3 EJ), and Japan (-0.2 EJ, total -1.1 EJ).
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025/global-trends