WFAA Dallas tracking down the receipts to piece together what happened..
Both warnings posted by NWS were clear cut and bold about this being life threatening, and location, even mentioning "campers" and "Kerrville". The flash flood emergency issued at 5:34 am on July 4th. "AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES A LARGE AND DEADLY WAVE IS MOVING DOWN THE GUADALUPE… pic.twitter.com/5Om57xffu9
— Rosievortwx🌩️ (@Rosievortwx) July 5, 2025
There are reports that this is at least partly the fault of the Texas Legislature (surprise, I know):
https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/06/texas-disaster-warning-emergency-communication-bill-kerrville-floods/
The Channel 8 review of the warnings leading up to the flood is very good. It would be useful to have documentation of Mariel Ruiz’ timelines and the specifics of the discussion. (Not that I doubt her. She has enormous credibility, but I always look to the original documents. She paints a very clear picture of what was happening over time.) Discussion in the Twitter-X-verse about warnings at 5:34 AM on July 4 is not terribly useful. At Hunt, the Guadalupe hit major flood stage (22 feet) at 4:20 AM and crested at 29 feet at 4:34 AM. Hunt is at the confluence of the North Fork Guadalupe and the South Fork Guadalupe. Camp Mystic is 5-7 miles upstream from Hunt on the South Fork Guadalupe. In all likelihood, the disaster at the camp had already occurred 60-90 minutes earlier. The thing I am not clear on is whether the the 1AM to 2AM estimates of rainfall within the watershed were based on gauges or derived from radar estimates. But that may not matter much. In any case, the Thursday evening discussion re potential for 7 inches of rain should have gotten everyone’s attention in a big way. The 2AM warning should have spurred the local officials to immediate, urgent action. But places like Kerr County just do not have the staff or communications resources to reach people in the middle of the night. A sad day for sure.