On Tuesday morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on CNBC to say that a deal could be announced later that day to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The stock market jumped markedly.
Alas, there was no deal. Far from it.
And on Saturday, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, laid out the conditions for reopening the Strait. They include the U.S. permanently ending the war, lifting its naval blockade, withdrawing forces, ending all sanctions, freeing Iran’s frozen assets, the payment of war reparations and ending threats and insults, among other things.
“It shows that they believe they have the upper hand, they believe they’re winning, and they are emboldened,” former Defense Secretary Mark Espersaid Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” program.
President Trump in February 2025 famously told Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, that he didn’t “have the cards” in talks with Russia.
Trump often looks at negotiations in the frame of a power dynamic: Who has the cards? Who has the leverage?
The U.S. and Israeli militaries have pounded Iran hard for more than five months, destroying much of its military and killing numerous top leaders. Iran is using the Strait of Hormuz as its final point of leverage.
This is somehow proving effective, because there isn’t an easy way to replace this waterway in terms of global trade in the Middle East. Just a few missiles and drones can create a lot of havoc in that waterway. And Iran knows the U.S. has been reticent to send in ground troops to clear out the Strait of Hormuz (not to mention the continuing questions about how many missiles the U.S. military has available).
Trump must decide whether to relaunch military strikes, wait them out or try to negotiate.
Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, issued a statement carried by state media laying out multiple requirements for reopening the strait. He called for the United States to lift its naval blockade and sanctions on Iran, withdraw the U.S. military from around Iran, pay war reparations and release frozen Iranian assets, as well as end attacks on Iran’s allies in the region and threats against the country.
Mr. Zolghadr’s list of demands upended expectations that a deal with Oman would soon allow commerce to flow through the strait once more and ease global energy prices. They will likely put pressure on President Trump to consider Iran’s conditions if he wants to lower consumer prices for Americans, which pose a risk for Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections.
Just, sheer incompetence. A high school student in history class could have told Trump an air campaign only wouldn’t move the Iranians an inch. The military MUST have told him so, as they warned him about the Strait:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/02/us/politics/trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz.html
But, he surrounds himself with yes men and often believes strongly in his own warped sense of reality. Even now he probably believes that the reports of arms shortages are fabricated:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy8mjd19xm7o
Eventually, someone is going to tell him to his face that he lost the war in Iran, then his little narcissistic pea brain is going to explode. That’s when it will get really dangerous.
——
The previous post here was about Greenland. I was going to say something on that post like, “The only thing you can count on from this Administration is incompetence.” But, that’s not really true. The are actually epically good at breaking things.
Finally, something La Mango Midas Mussolini can’t buy, lie, or corrupt his way out of. It is, and is going to be humiliating and infuriating for him and his minions.
I’m reminded of Hitler’s last days; no one telling him the truth, instead collaborating with his unshaken belief in imaginary armies, soldiers who had long since been killed by the millions, or captured by the Soviets. Killed himself.
Also, the tale of Rumpelstiltskin, so apoplectic he grabbed his knees with his whole arms, shrieked, and stomped his foot so hard he broke a hole in the earth and was swallowed up (or down, I guess). Another version, (maybe more psychologically accurate in symbolic terms?) says he stomped his right foot (or left foot?) so deep into the ground that he sank up to his waist, and in a fury, ripped himself in two.
Either ending makes me happy, although 1) then we have a ruler who’s almost as crazy and may be more competent, and 2) I’m always a little sad when delusional powermad right wing assholes die unrepentant because that’s the end of their chance to redeem their (imaginary/metaphorical) soul, and the end of our chance to have just a little tiny truth and reconciliation process—the truth, and acknowledgement of it by those who tried to destroy it—being what we need above all.