Even Oil Execs Hate Trump’s Energy Policies

Above, I keep reposting this interview with Harold Hamm, a fracking billionaire and one of Trump’s biggest donors.

What I’ve been telling anyone who will listen for weeks. Oil executives are as confused and whipsawed by tariff policy as everyone else.
But let’s invade Greenland.
Keep asking yourself, “Who benefits?”

Yahoo:

The Dallas Fed’s latest energy survey revealed deep skepticism among executives toward President Donald Trump’s tariffs and oil-production agenda. In anonymous comments, respondents decried the uncertainty and higher costs of tariffs while predicting that trying to lower crude prices to $50 a barrel would reduce production instead of expand it.

In anonymous comments collected by the Dallas Fed, some US oil and gas executives didn’t pull their punches as they criticized key policies of President Donald Trump.

Most respondents decried the uncertainty and higher costs from his tariffs, while others said plans to sharply lower crude prices are incompatible with a major expansion in energy production.

“The administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets. ‘Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal. We want more stability,” one executive said.

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump has already slapped tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, steel, aluminum and autos, while threatening duties on pharmaceuticals, chips, lumber and the European Union. He has said reciprocal tariffs will be unveiled on April 2, though he is reportedly pushing for even more aggressive levies and potentially a universal duty.

The on-again, off-again rollout of Trump’s prior tariffs has given businesses and consumers whiplash. Meanwhile, US refineries import oil from Canada and Mexico, while producers rely on imported metals for drilling operations.

Despite pumping record amounts of oil during the Biden administration, the energy industry largely backed Trump and celebrated his return to office.

But Trump officials have since targeted oil as part of their strategy to cool inflation and induce the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. In particular, the administration has suggested crude at $50 a barrel, helped by a massive increase in supply from expanded production.

Now the honeymoon appears to be over, as the industry warns $50 a barrel wouldn’t be economically feasible.

“The threat of $50 oil prices by the administration has caused our firm to reduce its 2025 and 2026 capital expenditures. ‘Drill, baby, drill’ does not work with $50 per barrel oil. Rigs will get dropped, employment in the oil industry will decrease, and U.S. oil production will decline as it did during COVID-19,” another oil executive warned.

Yet another said, “I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career.”

To be sure, some respondents welcomed Trump’s shift away from climate-change policies and his openness to boosting exports of liquid natural gas.

But the overall tone was gloomy, and the Dallas Fed’s business activity index dropped to 3.8 in the first quarter from 6.0 in the fourth quarter

The company outlook index plunged 12 points to -4.9, suggesting pessimism among firms, and the outlook uncertainty index jumped 21 points to 43.1.

“The political climate caused by the new presidential administration appears to be creating instability. Energy markets are not exempt from the loss of public faith in all markets,” one executive said.

But the overall tone was gloomy, and the Dallas Fed’s business activity index dropped to 3.8 in the first quarter from 6.0 in the fourth quarter

The company outlook index plunged 12 points to -4.9, suggesting pessimism among firms, and the outlook uncertainty index jumped 21 points to 43.1.

“The political climate caused by the new presidential administration appears to be creating instability. Energy markets are not exempt from the loss of public faith in all markets,” one executive said.

Dallas Federal Reserve:

•The key word to describe 2025 so far is “uncertainty” and as a public company, our investors hate uncertainty. This has led to a marked increase in the implied cost of capital of our business, with public energy stocks down significantly more than oil prices over the last two months. This uncertainty is being caused by the conflicting messages coming from the new administration. There cannot be “U.S. energy dominance” and $50 per barrel oil; those two statements are contradictory. At $50-per-barrel oil, we will see U.S. oil production start to decline immediately and likely significantly (1 million barrels per day plus within a couple quarters). This is not “energy dominance.” The U.S. oil cost curve is in a different place than it was five years ago; $70 per barrel is the new $50 per barrel.

•The administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets. “Drill, baby, drill” is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal. We want more stability.

• The administration’s tariffs immediately increased the cost of our casing and tubing by 25 percent even though inventory costs our pipe brokers less. U.S. tubular manufacturers immediately raised their prices to reflect the anticipated tariffs on steel. The threat of $50 oil prices by the administration has caused our firm to reduce its 2025 and 2026 capital expenditures. “Drill, baby, drill” does not work with $50 per barrel oil. Rigs will get dropped, employment in the oil industry will decrease, and U.S. oil production will decline as it did during COVID-19.
• I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career.