China’s refined oil consumption peaked in 2023 at 399 million metric tons (7.98 million barrels per day) and is expected to fall 1.3% to 394 million tons in 2024, CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute said on Friday.
As a result, crude oil imports are expected to fall to 544 million tons this year, according to a presentation by the research arm of China’s largest oil producer, although the world’s top importer still accounts for a quarter of global imports.
CNPC’s forecast underscores expectations that China’s crude oil imports are on track to peak next year as transport fuel demand begins to decline for the world’s top crude buyer, ending the country’s decades-long run as the dominant driver of expanding oil consumption.
By 2035, China’s overall refined products consumption is expected to fall by 25-40% to 240 million to 290 million tons in 2035 from the 2023 peak, CNPC said.
Gasoline consumption is forecast to fall to 80 million to 100 million tons in 2035, down 35-50% from 2023, as electric vehicles are expected to make up half of China’s car fleet by then, it added.
Similarly, the growth in trucks powered by alternative fuels such as electricity, liquefied natural gas and hydrogen, is expected to reduce diesel demand to 100 million to 120 million tons in 2035, a 35-50% decline from 2023, CNPC said.
China’s oil demand may peak in 2025, five years earlier than expected, as the shift away from gasoline and diesel accelerates, according to a report from the nation’s largest energy producer.
Oil demand could reach 770 million tons in 2025, before gradually falling to 240 million tons by 2060, the report by China National Petroleum Corp. released on Tuesday shows. Earlier this year, an official with the group said overall demand was not expected to peak until 2030.
China’s economic woes have weighed on the broader oil market this year, and the nation’s role as the growth engine for global crude demand has diminished. The rapid adoption of new-energy vehicles and the use of liquefied natural gas to power trucks has chipped away at diesel and gasoline consumption.