Seasonal forecasting has come a long way since the days when people tried to foretell the severity of the coming winter by examining the color of caterpillars or the abundance of acorns. The forecast shown above is a blend of seasonal climate models from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada — a “wisdom of the crowds” technique that yields more accurate seasonal forecasts.
Although the accuracy of this forecast has not been statistically assessed, it has performed well in recent years, particularly in the East — excluding the winter of 2020-2021, when a wobbly polar vortexunleashed more snow than was predicted. Even the most powerful supercomputer cannot anticipate a surprise nor’easter or an unseasonable warm spell months in advance, but seasonal forecasts tend to perform better when they can be traced to climatic conditions that are known to influence seasonal weather patterns.
This winter, two strong climate drivers churning in the Pacific Ocean give more confidence to the low-snowfall forecast.
Since summer, the Pacific Ocean has been shifting from an El Niño phase, characterized by warmer than average water near the equator, to a La Niña phase, when the water near the equator cools. This natural oscillation influences weather patterns across the planet.
At the same time, the forecast is also accounting for an ongoing marine heat wave off the eastern coast of Japan. Marine heat waves are expected to become more severe and frequent in a warming world.
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IWATA, June 28, 2023 – Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. today announces plans for an eventual withdrawal of the snowmobile business. The Company plans to end sales of snowmobiles in Japan through the 2022 model year*, in Europe through the 2024 model year, and in North America through the 2025 model year.
1. History of the Business and Reasons for Withdrawal
In 1968, Yamaha released its first snowmobile, the SL350, by applying small engine technology which it developed in the motorcycle business. Over the past 55 years, Yamaha developed snowmobiles for sports, leisure, and business use as a means of transportation mainly in snowy areas found in North America and Europe. Yamaha also aimed to grow the business through the early introduction of environmentally-friendly 4-stroke models and alliances with other companies. However, Yamaha has concluded it will be difficult to continue a sustainable business in the snowmobile market. Going forward, Yamaha will concentrate management resources on current business activities and new growth markets.
2. Future Actions
Yamaha will ensure parts availability, service, and related customer satisfaction now and after the snowmobile final production run occurs.
Production of the recently introduced 2024 models is underway and scheduled for fall delivery. Yamaha distributors will be working closely with dealers to minimize impact and best position their business over the next 12 – 36 months.
3. Impact on Business Performance
Due to the exit schedule outlined above, the effect on consolidated business results will be minor.