Some say we could start by naming Heat Waves like we do Hurricanes.
Jeff Goodell in the New York Times:
One of the most dangerous illusions of the climate crisis is that the technology of modern life makes us invincible. Humans are smart. We have tools. Yeah, it will cost money. But we can adapt to whatever comes our way. As for the coral reefs that bleach in the hot oceans and the howler monkeys that fell dead out of trees during a recent heat wave in Mexico, well, that’s sad but life goes on
This is, of course, an extremely privileged point of view. For one thing, more than 750 million people on the planet don’t have access to electricity, much less air-conditioning. (In India, New Delhi experienced temperatures as high as 120 degrees last week, leading to an increase in heatstroke, fears of blackouts and the possibility of water rationing.) But it is also a naïve point of view, if only because our bubble of invincibility is far more fragile than we know. So what can we expect in a heat Katrina?
Last year, researchers at Georgia Institute of Technology, Arizona State University and the University of Michigan published a study looking at the consequences of a major blackout during an extreme heat wave in three cities: Phoenix, Detroit and Atlanta. In the study, the cause of the blackout was unspecified.
“It doesn’t really matter if the blackout is the result of a cyberattack or a hurricane,” Brian Stone, the director of the Urban Climate Lab at Georgia Tech and the lead author on the study, told me. “For the purposes of our research, the effect is the same.” Whatever the cause, the study noted that the number of major blackouts in the United States more than doubled from 2015-16 to 2020-21.
Dr. Stone and his colleagues focused on those three American cities because they have different demographics, climates and dependence on air-conditioning. In Detroit, 53 percent of buildings have central air-conditioning; in Atlanta, 94 percent; in Phoenix, 99 percent. The researchers modeled the health consequences for residents in a two-day, citywide blackout during a heat wave, with electricity gradually restored over the next three days.
The results were shocking: In Phoenix, about 800,000 people — roughly half the population — would need emergency medical treatment for heatstroke and other illnesses. The flood of people seeking care would overwhelm the city’s hospitals. More than 13,000 people would die.
The study’s researchers simulated what would happen if the residents of Phoenix, Atlanta and Detroit were struck by a heat wave and a complete blackout that lasts 48 hours before power starts to be incrementally restored. The outcomes were deadly in all three cities, but the results for Phoenix were particularly striking, where almost everyone in the city relies on air conditioning to weather extreme heat. The study predicted that about half the population would require emergency department care and about 13,000 would die.
“Phoenix has a resilient electrical grid, there’s no doubt about it,” Stone said. “But they really haven’t prepared sufficiently for that low-probability but very high-impact event.”
Stone warned that climate change increases the likelihood of the nightmare scenario the paper examined. Heat waves are anticipated to become more intense, frequent and prolonged. Meanwhile, power grids will face increased demand for electricity during the summer months while being stressed by extreme weather, such as heat waves, hurricanes and wildfires.
Since 2015, the number of major blackouts — power outages lasting more than an hour and impacting more than 50,000 customers — have more than doubled, according to the study. Electric grid failures likely contributed to hundreds of deaths and thousands of emergency department visits during the historic 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave, the study said.
Ashley Ward, the director of the Heat Policy Innovation Hub at Duke University, said the study is “valuable” and captures the magnitude of the impact of heat. She noted that the study does not take into account humidity when estimating health outcomes, which she said could worsen the number of ER visits and deaths in Gulf Coast and Southeastern cities.
“It’s really troubling,” she said of the study’s findings in light of the current heat dome smothering the Southwest. “I think the truth is our energy grid is just not necessarily up to the task of the demands of such extreme daytime temperatures.”
Zachary Schlader, an associate professor at Indiana University Bloomington who has studied the effect of thermal stress on the human body, added that research into worst-case scenarios can help public health officials avert bad outcomes, even if a heat wave and blackout are unlikely to coincide.