Global petrol demand growth could halve in 2024, squeezing second-half refinery margins, analysts said, driven by a shift to electric cars in China and the United States and a return to normal consumption after last year’s bounce following COVID-19.
In the lowest growth since 2020, demand is likely to rise 340,000 barrels per day (bpd), to stand at 26.5 million bpd this year, says consultancy Wood Mackenzie, down from growth of 700,000 bpd last year, as China nears the point of peak transport fuel demand and the U.S. has surpassed it.
“Penetration of electric vehicles has been increasing in U.S. and China,” said Woodmac analyst Sushant Gupta.
“For this year Chinese demand will grow by only 10,000 bpd, due to higher EV uptake.”
Consultancy Rystad Energy pegs global gasoline demand at about 26 million bpd in 2024, up about 300,000 bpd from growth of about 700,000 bpd in 2023, fuelled by the consumption boom after the pandemic, said analyst Mukesh Sahdev.
China, once the world’s driver of gasoline demand, is expected to account for more than half of all EV sales this year, the International Energy Agency has said.
For every sign of an EV slowdown, another suggests an adolescent industry on the verge of its next growth spurt. In fact, for most automakers, even the first quarter was a blockbuster. Six of the 10 biggest EV makers in the US saw sales grow at a scorching pace compared to a year ago — up anywhere from 56% at Hyundai-Kia to 86% at Ford. A sampling of April sales similarly came in hot.
It’s a tale of two EV markets, where consumers are flocking to some brands in record numbers while turning their backs on those with inferior battery range, slower charging and high prices, said Stephanie Valdez-Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive. Delays of new vehicles, though temporary, added to the perception of a market running out of steam.
“We’re still seeing growth in demand, just not at the same pace for every brand,” Valdez-Streaty said. “Right now Tesla doesn’t have new models, Ford doesn’t have a lot in the pipeline. But Hyundai, BMW, Kia, Cadillac — they’re really moving the needle forward.”