An unusually warm forecast, beginning today, in parts of British Columbia — found to be 5 times more likely because of climate change — sets the stage for increased potential wildfire risk this week.
Climate Central analysis shows that the unusually warm temperatures forecast over May 2-5, 2024 in British Columbia are influenced by human-caused climate change. Across much of the province, climate change is making those temperatures at least five times more likely. In some larger cities in British Columbia, climate change is making those temperatures 2-3 times more likely. After a record fire season in 2023, this analysis shows climate change is warming up temperatures once again.
After a record-breaking warm winter and a balmy start to spring, experts say Michigan and surrounding states should brace for a scorching summer.
While that may make for an enjoyable boating season, it brings more risk of drought, wildfire and heat-related illnesses for humans and animals alike.
April temperatures throughout the state averaged 3 degrees to 5 degrees warmer than normal, said Matt Gillen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Gaylord. And much of the state is in for an early May heatwave, with temperatures as high as 15 degrees above average toward the end of the week.
Longer-term, federal forecasters predict above-average temperatures through the summer and into the fall.
It’s not clear whether spring and summer rainfall will be above or below average. But Michigan still hasn’t recovered from an abnormally dry winter, which left much of the state with dangerously low soil moisture going into spring.
In the northern Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula, Gillen said, “those sandy soils don’t take long to dry out.” As a result, he said, “fire danger is a concern again.”
Nearly a quarter of the Great Lakes region was in drought as of late March, but recent rains have helped alleviate that problem. Still, soil moisture remains below average in much of Michigan, with 21 percent of the state’s landmass abnormally dry.
The worst conditions exist in the heavily forested Upper Peninsula, where most of Gogebic and Ontonagon counties are in severe drought.
AccuWeather, a global weather forecasting company, is predicting elevated fire risks throughout the Upper Midwest this summer, said Brandon Buckingham, a meteorologist for the company in Grand Rapids.
Michigan is not alone. Nearly all the continental U.S. is expected to be warmer than average this summer — again. As human fossil-fuel consumption continues to warm the earth’s climate, historical averages have become an increasingly unreliable predictor of future temperatures.
Michigan’s average temperatures have warmed more than 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1960, and could rise another 6.5 degrees more by mid-century if society fails to lower greenhouse gas emissions.
Gillen said the El Niño climatological cycle that contributed to warmer winter conditions across the northern U.S. is waning, and a La Niña cycle is on the way. But that cycle, characterized by cooler and wetter conditions across much of the U.S., will not begin developing until at least June.