Hurricane researchers from Colorado State University are predicting that nearly two dozen named tropical storms will form, including 11 hurricanes, during the season that officially begins June 1. Accumulated cyclone energy, a measure that accounts for storms’ frequency and longevity, could rise nearly twice as high as normal, to a forecast 170 percent of average by the season’s end Nov. 30.
The forecast released Thursday is the latest indication that a surge in global heat over the past year, far beyond the gradual warming observed across recent decades, could translate to greater extreme weather risks.
The predictions are so aggressive, they would mean the Atlantic basin could exhaust a list of 21 storm names for a second time in four years, and the third time since 2005. After that, meteorologists would start using a list of supplemental storm names the World Meteorological Association adopted in 2021, replacing a practice of using Greek letters.
The researchers said their hurricane season forecast comes with more confidence than usual, and it includes the highest predictions the team has made in 40 years of producing these outlooks. Although hurricane season predictions aren’t rock-solid at this time of year, sea surface temperatures are so extreme across the Atlantic basin that stormy conditions appear all but assured.
“It would take something pretty crazy for the Atlantic to not be substantially warmer than normal for the peak of the season,” which typically occurs in August and September, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Philip Klotzbach, the forecast’s lead author. “The signal certainly points quite strongly toward a busy season this year.”