The power grid is increasingly unreliable, and NERC officials say it is not clear how the trend will be reversed.
“In recent years, we’ve witnessed a decline in reliability, and the future projection does not offer a clear path to securing the reliable electricity supply that is essential for the health, safety, and prosperity of our communities,” John Moura, NERC’s director of reliability assessment and performance analysis, said in a statement.
“We are facing an absolute step change in the risk environment surrounding reliability and energy assurance,” Moura said.
The Midcontinent Independent System Operator faces a projected 4.7 GW shortfall beginning in 2028 “if expected generator retirements occur,” NERC found. The grid operator is adding more than 12 GW to shore up a previously identified reserve deficit but more will be needed.
NERC also noted that there are 50 GW of generation in MISO with signed generation interconnection agreements that are not yet online, “and another 200+ GW of new resources within the interconnection queue that are still being evaluated.”
A spokesperson for MISO said the grid operator “concurs with NERC’s key conclusions and recommendations,” and is taking steps to address potential resource shortfalls. A new seasonal resource adequacy construct, changes to resource accreditation, development of a long-range transmission plan and adoption of a reliability-based demand curve will help, they said.
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With electricity demand growing, concerns about reliability are legit. However, a quick survey of some context is required.
In a recent US News and World Report ranking of states by grid reliability, the top performing states were Nebraska, South Dakota and Illinois – all top ten states for wind energy by percentage, or number of turbines (Illinois), with a lot of solar coming on board.
Iowa, with more than 62 percent renewables, mostly wind, was number 10 most reliable grid.
My own Michigan, with 85 plus percent coal, nuclear and gas generation, purportedly the most reliable, “dispatchable” forms of generation, was a dismal 43rd.
So, while it’s true that there is a need for accelerated deployment of new generation, as well as transmission and battery storage, the narrative that “renewables bring reliability issues” is bogus.
The biggest threat to grid reliability is not the generation source so much as the decrepit and rapidly degrading condition of transmission grids across the country – increasingly vulnerable to climate change. In a recent earnings call CEO of the US’s tenth largest Utility, Consumer’s Energy, based in Jackson Michigan, underlined this vulnerability.
“Over the last 20 years, we’ve seen an increase in both the frequency of storms and higher wind speeds, some of the most extreme winds within the last four years,” Garrick Rochow, president and CEO of Consumers Energy, said on the call. “We’re clearly seeing the effects of climate change.”
For example, he said the design standard for its system was to withstand 40 mph winds. Now, that’s been changed to 80 mph.
He said those new realities are part of its “reliability road map” — a long-term planto cut power outage times and shrink the number of customers facing outages simultaneously — that the utility submitted to the Michigan Public Service Commission last month.
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One of the quickest ways to recruit large tranches of cash to upgrade local grids, is to develop clean energy sites – where builders go to work immediately upgrading local infrastructure so as to carry their product, clean electricity, to markets.
A Central Michigan Economic Development official describes how this works, below.
Finally, grid reliability graphed against increasing renewables in Germany.
Mmm Expected life span of grid infrastructure 50 years. a quarter of the infrastructure already over that and 70% over 40 years old. Can’t see a problem.
“The biggest threat to grid reliability is not the generation source so much as the decrepit and rapidly degrading condition of transmission grids across the country – increasingly vulnerable to climate change.”
Can I have an “Amen!”?
Permitting is still a big obstacle.
From https://www.scenic.org/2023/09/28/soo-green-transmission-line-gets-green-light-from-iowa-regulators/
David Pacyna, CEO of SOO Green HVDC Link ProjectCo, noted that both MISO and PJM are currently reviewing the project as part of their interconnection review processes. According to Pacyna, based on PJM’s schedule, the SOO Green project is expected to secure an interconnection service agreement by the third quarter of 2025. Efforts are underway to align the MISO interconnection study timeline with PJM’s process to ensure concurrent agreements.
Target date to be operational is mid-2029.
Garrick Rochow, president and CEO of Consumers Energy, said on the call. “We’re clearly seeing the effects of climate change.”
Duh… I guess that’s progress!