Month: August 2023

Is Rising Methane an Ominous Indicator?

I saw this piece from Euan Nisbet, Professor of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London, a few days ago, but wanted to know more about how credible it was. Now I see that Stefan Rahmstorf tweeted it out, so that makes me take it more seriously.

A lot of panic about methane levels has centered on the so-called “Methane bomb” of undersea frozen clathrate deposits, which a number of pretty good scientists have told me is a bit over-done.
In recent years, however, an observed spike in global methane levels has been convincingly traced to wetlands in the tropics, which seem to be pumping out more of the gas as rainfall and temperatures increase.
Also, Beavers involved.

Euan Nisbet in The Conversation:

Since 2006, the amount of heat-trapping methane in Earth’s atmosphere has been rising fast and, unlike the rise in carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane’s recent increase seems to be driven by biological emissions, not the burning of fossil fuels. This might just be ordinary variability – a result of natural climate cycles such as El Niño. Or it may signal that a great transition in Earth’s climate has begun.

Molecule for molecule, methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO₂ but it lasts slightly less than a decade in the atmosphere compared with centuries for CO₂. Methane emissions threaten humanity’s ability to limit warming to relatively safe levels. Even more troubling, the rate at which methane is increasing in the atmosphere has accelerated recently. Something like this has happened before: sudden surges in methane marked the transitions from cold ice ages to warm interglacial climates.

Methane was about 0.7 parts per million (ppm) of the air before humans began burning fossil fuels. Now it is over 1.9 ppm and rising fast. Roughly three-fifths of emissions come from fossil fuel use, farming, landfills and waste. The remainder is from natural sources, especially vegetation rotting in tropical and northern wetlands.

Methane is both a driver and a messenger of climate change. We don’t know why it is now rising so rapidly, but the pattern of growth since late 2006 resembles how methane behaved during great flips in Earth’s climate in the distant past.

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Will Hilary Hasten California’s Insurance Climate Stampede?

Above, local Los Angeles reporting from KTLA – “Climate change has made actuarial tables that insurance companies have relied upon obsolete.”

Los Angeles Times:

If your home was in the path battered by Hilary, you may be able to get help from your homeowners insurance. But much depends on the type of damage you incurred, because some of what Hilary threw Southern California’s way is not covered by the standard policy.

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The typical homeowners policy covers damage caused by wind and the rain falling onto your house — for example, if your roof is blown off or the rain coming through a leak ruins your bedroom carpet. It also covers the damage from falling trees under certain circumstances — for example, if it was a sickly tree on your property, the insurer could argue that the storm wasn’t the main reason it fell down.

On the other hand, most homeowners insurance policies do not cover damage caused by floods, mudslides, debris flows or similar disasters, according to the California Department of Insurance. Flood insurance, which is sold by the National Flood Insurance Program mainly to people who live in flood zones, covers damage from floods and mudflows, but not gravity-induced mudslides, the Insurance Information Institute says on its website.

There is an exception, the state agency says, if the flood, mudslide or debris flow was caused directly or indirectly by a recent wildfire or another hazard covered by your policy. To be sure, check with your insurance provider. 

The same limitations apply to renters insurance policies. If your laptop is ruined by rain pouring in from a hole in the roof, you can get reimbursed. But if it’s ruined by floodwaters, your renters policy won’t cover it.

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Continue reading “Will Hilary Hasten California’s Insurance Climate Stampede?”

Reed Timmer: Hilary Debris Flow/Flooding at Coachella

Reed Timmer is out of his effing mind, and I mean that in the most literal way possible – but I bet he’ll have some of the best “what I did at Coachella” stories this summer.

Los Angeles Times:
Palm Springs and the Coachella Valley were digging out Monday from intense flooding and mudflows following Tropical Storm Hilary, which inundated roads and cut off the region’s key freeway, Interstate 10, for many hours.

Riverside County declared a local emergency in the wake of the storm that officials deemed would last at least a week as cleanup efforts get underway.

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Palm Springs averages 4 to 5 inches of rainfall per year, said Elizabeth Adams, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego.

Hilary unleashed more than half of that Sunday. The Coachella Valley received 2 to 4 inches of rain at lower elevations, including in Palm Springs and Indio, and about 4 to 6 inches farther west, the weather service said.

How Climate Extremes are Hammering Supply Chains

Hurricane Hilary will be a disruption for critical products, including food – and even a short lived disruption can have longer term effects.
There are other critical choke points that are also vulnerable to a changing climate.

Giant Freaking Robot:

In what is being called the “world’s worst traffic jam,” some 200 cargo ships are waiting to pass at the Panama Canal as, thanks to global climate change, the area experiences its worst drought in 100 years. As Futurism reports, the huge backlog has been growing for some time and might not get any better for a few weeks yet. The human-made passageway is famous not only as one of the world’s most impressive feats of engineering but as one of the most important trade routes on Earth.

The Panama Canal relies on massive amounts of water, the supply of which is shrinking in the current drought. As climate change continues across the globe, extreme weather events and conditions such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes are also increasing in both frequency and intensity. In fact, this is not the first time in recent history the canal has been struck by water shortages.

Drought at the Panama Canal has not been a common sight over much of the past century, but climate change is altering that reality and trading it for one that is much less desirable—and much more expensive. As recently as 2019, similar conditions to the current dry spell have hit Panama, which is normally one of the world’s wettest areas. Before that, the area was also similarly parched in 2016, with each event getting worse than the one before.

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Efficiency, Alternatives, Hitting EU Gas Demand

Wall Street Journal:

Last year’s hottest gas market has cooled, and some of the change will stick.

Demand for natural gas in Europe hasn’t bounced back despite lower prices. The region’s TTF benchmark price is down 85% compared with a year ago, when Europe was rushing to fill its gas-storage facilities for winter after Russia cut off supply.

Prices have fallen partly because Europe’s gas storage is already full. It hit a 90% capacity target last week, more than two months ahead of a schedule set last year by the European Union. 

But underlying demand is also weak. According to think tank Bruegel’s European natural gas demand tracker, use of gas in the first quarter of this year was 18% lower than the 2019-2021 average, and 19% below in the second quarter. The declines have accelerated from the 12% fall recorded last year.

Weaker economic growth is one reason why gas use hasn’t recovered. Another may be that lower wholesale prices haven’t been passed on to end users yet, according to Ben McWilliams, author of the Bruegel tracker.

Other factors will be more permanent, notably new technologies. The European Heat Pump Association said sales of heat pumps rose 39% in 2022. They are now installed in 16% of Europe’s residential and commercial buildings, often replacing gas boilers. Heat pumps require electricity, which is often produced using gas, but this too is changing. Installations of new solar capacity rose a record 47% in 2022, and last year was the first time that renewable power generated more of Europe’s electricity than natural gas.

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Fox News Blames Hurricane Path on Joe Biden

An evolving talking point on the Climate Denial right wing media has been the Jewish Space Laser response to climate driven extreme events – paranoid conspiracies about The Ruling Elite using weather modification to create disasters.

Simple answers for the science-illiterate and ideologically driven.
Above – Alex Jones on Tornadoes as weather weapons.
This weekend, Fox News slyly injected the meme into an opening segment on a weekend program.

Raw Story:

Fox News is blaming Tropical Storm Hilary hitting California on President Joe Biden.

In the first minute of the right-wing cable channel’s “The Big Weekend Show” Sunday evening, host Kennedy opened with a dramatic introduction.

“The big story tonight: The wrath of Tropical Storm Hilary. 42 million desperate souls in the path of the storm which made landfall in Mexico several hours ago. But they let it right into the country because it’s Biden’s America.”

“Its impact far from over,” Kennedy continued. “This is the first tropical storm to hit California since 1939, when Joe Biden started his Senate career,” the longtime Fox host added, appearing to mock the President who was born in 1942.

“Forecasters warn there could be catastrophic, and life-threatening flooding,” she continued.

Kennedy then aired a clip of National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome discussing the storm, saying there are “a lot of people in harm’s way” who are “probably being a little bit flippant in not taking the risk seriously.”

Describing the gravity of the storm, the Associated Press on Monday reports Hilary is the “first tropical storm to hit Southern California in 84 years, Hilary dropped more than half an average year’s worth of rain on some areas, including Palm Springs, which saw nearly 3.18 inches (8 centimeters) of rain by Sunday evening.”

In California, Flooding and Landslides Reported

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