Extreme Weather Raises Insurance Costs for Clean Energy (and Everything Else)

Bloomberg:

The Scottsbluff solar farm in western Nebraska was built to withstand most hailstones. But the icy pellets that rained down in late June were bigger than baseballs. 

The hail — part of a larger pattern of severe storms, heat and other extreme weather fueled by climate change — smashed the bulk of Scottsbluff’s glass panels. Designed to power more than 650 local homes, the facility remains out of commission over a month later. Its owner, private developer Arevon Energy Inc., is still tallying the cost.

Solar plants and wind farms are crucial weapons in the battle against greenhouse gas emissions. So it’s a cruel irony that their effectiveness is often hobbled by damage from storms, floods, wildfires and other disasters amplified by global warming. That’s making them harder to insure. Property insurance premiums for US solar facilities have soared as much as 50% over the past year, threatening to slow their rollout and derail global efforts to cut carbon emissions.

Extreme weather has “become a giant risk for the financing of these projects,” said Jason Kaminsky, chief executive officer of solar data and climate insurance provider kWh Analytics. “Anything that increases costs could slow down the deployment of renewable power needed for the energy transition.”

In areas particularly prone to natural disasters, some renewable energy companies have stopped developing projects altogether because of the cost to insure. Lightsource BP, a global solar developer half-owned by oil giant BP Plc, has so far avoided building on the US Gulf Coast near the shore because of hurricane threats. SB Energy, a renewable energy developer backed by Japan’s SoftBank Group, has passed on signing leases or acquiring a few early-stage projects in the Midwest and Texas due to hail risk.

“Not every project is insurable anymore,” said Kevin Christy, head of innovation and operational excellence in the Americas at Lightsource.

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Trillion Trees Sounds Great. Now. Anybody Got some Trees?

This map of red oak seed sources provides an example of a major threat to an important effort against climate change: major government and private funding is being invested in planting trees as a powerful tool to fight local and global warming. But new research in the journal Bioscience, from which this map is adapted, shows a troubling bottleneck that could threaten these efforts: U.S. tree nurseries don’t grow close to enough trees—nor have the species diversity needed—to meet ambitious planting goals.

I have no problem with proposals to plant a trillion trees, sounds like a great idea, notwithstanding questions about exactly where you’re going to find space for that, which would require an area equal to three Indias.

If we had some ham, we could have ham and eggs, if we had some eggs.

Eureka Alert:

The REPLANT Act provides money for the US Forest Service to plant more than a billion trees in the next nine years. The World Economic Forum aims to help plant a trillion trees around the world by 2030. Many US cities have plans to shade their streets with millions of trees. Major government and private funding is being invested in planting trees as a powerful tool to fight climate change, protect water, clean air, and cool cities. In short, trees are hot.

But new research shows a troubling bottleneck that could threaten these efforts: U.S. tree nurseries don’t grow close to enough trees—nor have the species diversity needed—to meet ambitious plans.

The study was published in the journal Bioscience on July 31, 2023.

“Trees are this amazing natural solution to a lot of our challenges, including climate change. We urgently need to plant many millions of them,” says University of Vermont scientist Tony D’Amato who co-led the new research. “But what this paper points out is that we are woefully underserved by any kind of regional or national scale inventory of seedlings to get the job done.”

A team of 13 scientists, led by D’Amato and UVM post-doctoral scientist Peter Clark, studied 605 plant nurseries across twenty northern states. Only 56 of these grow and sell seedlings in the volumes needed for conservation and reforestation and only 14 of them were government-operated, they report. The team was more dismayed to discover an “overwhelming scarcity of seedlings,” they write, from different species and “seed collection zones”—trees adapted to local conditions and climate. In essence, forest nurseries tended to maintain a limited inventory of a select few species, electing to prioritize those valued for commercial timber production over species required for conservation, ecological restoration, or climate adaptation. Moreover, many areas had no locally adapted tree stock available. (See map for example.) And within the seedlings available, there were not enough types of trees and “future-climate-suitable” genetics to meet goals for conservation and forest restoration in a hot future.

“The world is thinking about a warming climate—can we plant towards that warming climate? We know we’re losing ecologically important species across North America and around the world. So, the goal is: can we restore these trees or replace them with similar species? It’s a powerful idea,” says UVM’s Peter Clark, the lead author on the new study. “But—despite the excitement and novelty of that idea in many policy and philanthropy circles—when push comes to shove, it’s very challenging on the ground to actually find either the species or the seed sources needed.”

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In Trumplandia: Central US Continues to See Flood Risk

Areas of Central US that have become frequent sites for damaging storms and floods remain in the crosshairs today for the coming week.
Above and below, weather casters report the situation without discussing underlying cause of the the problems, and why it will only get worse.

Citizens of Trumplandia know they are suffering, but they don’t know why.

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The Big Short 2: Could Climate/Insurance Crisis Crash Home Prices?

Bloomberg:

US homes in areas prone to floods may be currently overvalued in the range of $121 billion to $237 billion, according to a reportpublished Thursday in the journal Nature Climate Change

Roughly, that number is derived by looking at how much homes are selling for now and subtracting the estimated average annual losses that they will incur from flooding over the next 30 years (the average length of a mortgage in the US), as determined by the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit that seeks to improve awareness of climate change-related risks like increased flooding. The report was authored by researchers from First Street, the Environmental Defense Fund and Resources for the Future, among others.

The discrepancy in value was particularly significant in counties along the coasts in places where disclosure of flood risk isn’t required in real estate transactions, the study found. Although high-value homes along Florida’s Gold Coast accounted for the largest part of the absolute amount of valuation differential, low-income households stand at risk of losing the largest share of home value.

“The consequence of this financial risk and how the housing market responds really depend on policy choice on who bears the cost of climate change,” said Jesse Gourevitch, a fellow with the Environmental Defense Fund and the lead author of the report. “It is really critical that flood risk is better communicated to property owners.” 

It has long been understood that flood risk is not adequately priced into homes or flood insurance  . In many cases, buyers are simply not aware, since federal government maps outlining risk zones are outdated and difficult to access. Moreover, state laws vary on how much flood-disclosure risk is required when homes are sold. 

In addition, lower costs in the short run tend to sway buyers to underestimate the likelihood and severity of flooding over time. Historically, the federal government has aided and abetted this risky decision-making with subsidized flood insurance.

Nature Climate Change – Unpriced Climate Risk and the Potential Consequences of Overvaluation in the US Housing Market:

Climate change impacts threaten the stability of the US housing market. In response to growing concerns that increasing costs of flooding are not fully captured in property values, we quantify the magnitude of unpriced flood risk in the housing market by comparing the empirical and economically efficient prices for properties at risk. We find that residential properties exposed to flood risk are overvalued by US$121–US$237 billion, depending on the discount rate. In general, highly overvalued properties are concentrated in counties along the coast with no flood risk disclosure laws and where there is less concern about climate change. Low-income households are at greater risk of losing home equity from price deflation, and municipalities that are heavily reliant on property taxes for revenue are vulnerable to budgetary shortfalls. The consequences of these financial risks will depend on policy choices that influence who bears the costs of climate change.

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Climate Denier Sabotages National Security

Completely consistent. What can you say about someone that doesn’t care about their own children?

Huffington Post:

Unless you’ve been living underground or have a vested interest in turning a blind eye to reality, you know that climate change has sent temperatures soaring to dangerous levels around the planet this summer. 

Two global climate organizations on Thursday confirmed that July is on track to be the single hottest month on record. It is also likely the hottest monthlong stretch in 120,000 years. Nearly 200 million people — 60% of the U.S. population — are currently under an extreme heat or flood advisory.

But as usual, Republican climate deniers are quick to dismiss the dire impacts.

“There is a very scientific word for this: It’s called summer,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) told HuffPost when asked about the heat on Thursday. “It’s no hotter right now than it’s ever been. I’ve been in this heat all my life in July and August as a football coach. This world’s not heating up, come on.”

Tuberville coached college football before entering politics and has no apparent scientific background. Yet the lack of knowledge in the field doesn’t keep him from confidently pooh-poohing the work of thousands of scientists around the world. Last month, as much of the U.S. Northeast was blanketed in thick smoke from Canadian wildfires, Tuberville deployed a similar response: “We’ve had fires for all of our life, come on.”