What’s that old saying? Change comes slowly, slowly, ..then, all at once.
That’s what economist’s call the “S” curve of technology adoption.
Experts explain below:
EV Sales are What an “S” Curve Looks Like
What’s that old saying? Change comes slowly, slowly, ..then, all at once.
That’s what economist’s call the “S” curve of technology adoption.
Experts explain below:
My caveat is that, while the S-curve works well for volume commodities (as with consumer products), more capital-intensive technologies don’t respond as quickly. (To some extent their S-curve is more spread out over time.)
SMR nukes, ships, and even offshore wind turbines are sensitive to more than just market demand. (Offshore wind farms have had erratic amounts installed in any one year, yet most of the forecast charts depict unnaturally smooth growth curves.) In some aspects of transitions we get the low-hanging fruit first, then hit snags based on politics, bureaucracy, regulations, and budgets.
While I am convinced there will be a huge number of EVs on the road in 5-10 years, I’m also reasonably sure there will be major stumbling blocks to prevent 90-100% EV new car sales by 2030 – mining issues, charger availability, electrical grid changes, and consumer demand to name a few.