Daniel Swain PhD of UCLA in The Hill:
Potentially driving the Maui fires, according to Swain, was the combination of unusually high pressure from north and a “fairly strong hurricane a few 100 miles from the south.”
“It is very possible that the presence of a hurricane relatively nearby but not close enough to produce any precipitation helped amplify a downslope windstorm on the Big Island and in Maui,” he added.
This windstorm, Swain continued, could have both contributed to the fire spread and generated drying effects similar to that of a Santa Ana windstorm in Southern California.
These winds also prevented helicopters from performing aerial water drops, which could have helped reduce some of the spread, according to Trauernicht.
Swain warned that there are many more hotspots across the U.S. that could be at risk of wildfires, noting that he would not be shocked “in the coming years to see a wildfire catastrophe unfold in New Jersey, in the Pine Barrens” and in nearby coastal communities.
He offered similar thoughts about the Blue Ridge Mountains in western North Carolina and in parts of the Upper Midwest.
Addressing what role climate change may be playing in fueling this fire, Swain stressed that asking about such a link “just isn’t a well-posed question.”
“Climate change is not the only factor at play,” he said, noting that research does show that it is increasing wildfire risk. “It doesn’t make sense to ask the question of did climate change cause this fire catastrophe? The answer is no. But then nothing else singularly did either.”
These conditions are likely the result of a combination of compounding factors, including climate change, as well as forest management practices that excluded natural fires and Indigenous burning and residual dry fuels, according to Swain.
“We’ve added more fuel to the fire, kiln-dried the fuel with climate change, and then lots of people have moved into the kiln,” he said. “Not a great combination.”
Field also emphasized the role of climate change in the ongoing crisis, and said no lasting solution could ignore that factor.
“It’s important to remember that wildfire has a climate change component behind it almost all the time,” he said. “And the main strategy we should be using in tackling the increasing risk of wildfires is tackling climate change.”
How the “breeding ground of aquaculture” burned to the ground
Quotes from Kaniela Ing, as told to Emily Atkin
“Lahaina wasn’t always a dry, fire-prone region. It was very wet and lush, historically. Boats would circle the famous Waiola Church. Lahaina was also the breeding place of aquaculture. It had some of the world’s first and most innovative systems of fish ponds.
”But at the dawn of the 18th century, sugar barons arrived and illicitly diverted the water to irrigate the lands they had stolen. (Note: 18th century European sugar and pineapple barons also brought invasive grasses, Wired reports, which now cover 26 percent of Hawaii and become “explosive” fuel for wildfires.)“Today, descendants from those same barons amass fast profits from controlling our irrigation, our land use, and political influence. Alexander and Baldwin are two big missionary families of the original oligarchs, and they’re currently the largest landowners on Maui. That’s the name of their corporation and they’re one of the top political donors here today.
“So on one hand, the climate emergency caused this. On the other, it’s also that history of colonial greed that made Lahaina the dry place that it is.
Wind, temperature, humidity, fuel load and fuel dryness all play a part. Sometimes small (tiny) differences can have a major impact on severity. I forgot terrain.
I am not surprised they got caught out, based on previous experience this should have been manageable. But these conditions were different, such small differences that the totality was masked until too late.