I produced this shortly after Cat 5 Hurricane Dorian exhibited a catastrophic 40 hour stall over the Bahamas.
Shouldn’t be lost on anyone what similar behavior over South Florida, just a short distance away, might mean.
Two key points: warmer oceans means heat, which is fuel for Hurricanes, extends to greater depths. In cooler waters, Cyclones are somewhat self-limiting in that they stir up cooler water from depths, and cut off their own energy supply. When deeper water is still warm, the cycle just keeps feeding on itself.
Also, there is evidence that slower moving Jetstream currents mean there is a tendency for storms to stall, and linger over one area, for an extended period – as did Dorian, but also Harvey over Houston, and Florence over the Carolinas.
Something to keep an eye out for, if, as NOAA now says, we are in for an Above Average season.
Bear in mind that 2017 Hurricane Harvey’s greatest damage was after it dropped from a Cat 4 to a loitering tropical storm pumping water into southeast Texas.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/64/Harvey_2017_rainfall_SE_Texas.gif/1280px-Harvey_2017_rainfall_SE_Texas.gif
Earlier, in 2001, Tropical Storm Allison dumped then-record rains over a larger area. As a mere “tropical storm” it wasn’t as sexy for the media.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c9/Allison_2001_rainfall.gif/800px-Allison_2001_rainfall.gif
quote: When the surface water is warm, the storm sucks up heat energy from the water, just like a straw sucks up a liquid. This heat energy is the fuel for the storm. And the warmer the water, the more moisture is in the air. And that could mean bigger and stronger hurricanes.
So now I wonder if a hurricane can recharge by sitting over warm water
https://oceantoday.noaa.gov/fuelforthestorm/