UPDATE:
Weather caster from WWL TV in New Orleans explains NOAA update on the hurricane season.
Oops.
Above normal wind shear in the Caribbean during El Nino years normally depresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
NOAA now predicting lower shear, higher risk, going into the dark heart of the season.
Floridians, check your flood insurance policy.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday increased its forecast for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season to “above normal” from its previous estimate of a “near-normal” season.
This year’s hurricane season, which typically runs from June to the end of November, has been difficult to predict, climate scientists said. The El Niño climate pattern traditionally helps temper the Atlantic hurricane season. This year, that’s counteracted by elevated water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean that can fuel hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday increased its forecast for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season to “above normal” from its previous estimate of a “near-normal” season.
This year’s hurricane season, which typically runs from June to the end of November, has been difficult to predict, climate scientists said. The El Niño climate pattern traditionally helps temper the Atlantic hurricane season. This year, that’s counteracted by elevated water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean that can fuel hurricanes.
NOAA forecasters in May predicteda “near-normal” Atlantic hurricane season, with 12 to 17 large storms that get named. An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three are major hurricanes.
The typical impact of El Niño produces an Atlantic hurricane season with only about nine named storms, Rosencrans said, including four hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
This year is different, in large part because of record-warm sea surface temperatures, NOAA said. Warmer water means more moisture in the air, which fuels bigger and stronger hurricanes, according to NOAA.