2023’s Message: Sorry Suckers, No Place is Safe From Climate Change
I’ve posted this vid before for those of you that might have thought there’s some safe place where rich white people can go to ride out climate change and watch the rest of the world burn on TV.
Surprise! The PBS Terra episode above (I think I have it set to roll at the 6:50 mark) mentions a study that names Lamoille County in Northern Vermont as the safest climate haven in the country. Reality has since intervened.
This week’s flooding in Vermont, in which heavy rainfall caused destruction even miles from any river, is evidence of an especially dangerous climate threat: Catastrophic flooding can increasingly happen anywhere, with almost no warning.
And the United States, experts warn, is nowhere close to ready for that threat.
The idea that anywhere it can rain, it can flood, is not new. But rising temperatures make the problem worse: They allow the air to hold more moisture, leading to more intense and sudden rainfall, seemingly out of nowhere. And the implications of that shift are enormous.
“It’s getting harder and harder to adapt to these changing conditions,” said Rachel Cleetus, policy director for the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “It’s just everywhere, all the time.”
The federal government is already struggling to prepare American communities for severe flooding, by funding better storm drains and pumps, building levees and sea walls and elevating roads and other basic infrastructure. As seas rise and storms get worse, the most flood-prone parts of the country — places like New Orleans, Miami, Houston, Charleston or even areas of New York City — could easily consume the government’s entire budget for climate resilience, without solving the problem for any of them.
Federal flood maps, which governments use as a guide to determine where to build housing and infrastructure, are supposed to be updated regularly. But they often fail to capture the full risk — the result of a lack of resources, but also sometimes pushback from local officials who don’t want new limits on development.
And as the flooding in Vermont demonstrates, the government can’t focus its resilience efforts only on the obvious areas, near coasts or rivers.
But the country lacks a comprehensive, current, national precipitation database that could help inform homeowners, communities and the government about the rising risks from heavy rains.
Above: From NBC 5 in Burlington, Vermont
If you haven’t seen flooding yet, do not let your guard down – especially in the Champlain Valley. Winooski and Lamoille rivers expected to reach major flood stage tonight into Tuesday! https://t.co/uqYg3fhM7D
In Vermont, the true number of homes at risk from flooding is three times as much as what federal flood maps show, according to data from the First Street Foundation, a New York-based nonprofit research group.
That so-called “hidden risk” is staggeringly high in other parts of the country as well. In Utah, the number of properties at risk when accounting for rainfall is eight times as much as what appears on federal flood maps, according to First Street. In Pennsylvania, the risk is five and a half times as much; in Montana, four times as much. Nationwide, about 16 million properties are at risk, compared with 7.5 million in federally designated flood zones.
The result is severe flooding in what might seem like unexpected places, such as Vermont. Last summer, rainstorms closed down parts of Yellowstone National Park, forcing visitors to evacuate. In March, heavy rain caused federal disaster declarations across six counties in Nevada, the driest state in the country.
The flooding in Vermont highlights the need to spend more on modeling and planning for flood events, said Mathew Sanders, who leads state resilience efforts for the Pew Charitable Trusts. “You have to look at how water is going to flow,” he said. “We sort of need to reimagine what the most strategic interventions are going to be.”
All that water often brings tragedy to places that can least handle it.
Last year, a deluge of rain touched off flash floods that surged through the hollows of eastern Kentucky. The force of the water shredded some homes, mangled trucks and clogged the remaining buildings with mud and debris. More than 35 people died.
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The PBS video also mentioned Michigan as one of the potential havens – but, as the picture shows below, this June northern Michigan’s Mackinac Bridge, which folks in this area think of as the “Gateway to God’s Country”, was shrouded in choking, deadly wildfire smoke, and likely will be again as winds change this summer, as Canadian wildfires continue to burn.
Earth’s message: Adapt to this, suckers – wherever I go, I’m taking you with me.
One thought on “2023’s Message: Sorry Suckers, No Place is Safe From Climate Change”
I’ve picked my poison.
Of the contrast between Montpelier and Phoenix this week, I’ll move somewhere that will probably get massive rain events, but won’t roast people, animals and plants.
I really have to get back to my pre-pandemic practice of buying lots of canned goods, then replacing them every year by sending the older (but still good) ones to the local food bank. (I stopped during the pandemic because I stopped going out to restaurants and emptied my pantry on a regular basis.)
I’ve picked my poison.
Of the contrast between Montpelier and Phoenix this week, I’ll move somewhere that will probably get massive rain events, but won’t roast people, animals and plants.
I really have to get back to my pre-pandemic practice of buying lots of canned goods, then replacing them every year by sending the older (but still good) ones to the local food bank. (I stopped during the pandemic because I stopped going out to restaurants and emptied my pantry on a regular basis.)