NHC has updated and increased the storm surge forecast, now indicating peak surge of 18 feet above normally dry ground between southern Sarasota county coast to near Bonita Beach, including Port Charlotte, and Ft Myers areas. pic.twitter.com/Cbo9eKCvFb
— Craig Setzer, CCM (@CraigSetzer) September 28, 2022
What does 10+ feet of storm surge look like? #Ian @GregPostel shows you using our Immersive Mixed Reality technology: pic.twitter.com/fwMTtsSdDV
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) September 27, 2022
Now that annual sea level rise has accelerated to 3.9 mm per year, larger storm surges will accompany every hurricane, tropical storm or high tide. Remember that sea level rise is vertical while beaches are sloped.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150192/tracking-30-years-of-sea-level-rise
This is weirdly close to one of the “gray swan” scenarios from that Emanuel paper:
https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/109495
The discussion of a “worst case scenario” is all very dramatic and a necessary thought experiment, but it’s out at the tiny end of probability, whereas the “not the worst but a really, really horrible scenario” is a lot higher probability.
Something like Ian will impoverish a lot of people who previously thought of themselves as middle class, and trigger the death spiral of a lot of communities that will never rebuild a tax base out of collapsing property values.
Pretty accurate prediction from the Weather Channel:
https://twitter.com/itsbethbooker/status/1575189530943946752
https://vp.nyt.com/video/2022/09/28/102670_1_28vid-Ian-Satellite-landfall_wg_480p.mp4