“Above Average” Hurricane Season Coming

Hurricanes are one area where you probably don’t want to be “above average”.

Top, I interviewed Jeff Berardelli, who may be familiar to CBS viewers as a climate specialist over recent years, he is now Chief Meteorologist at WFLA in Tampa. He gave me some mind-altering stats on where we are with hurricanes today.

Jeff Masters in Yale Climate Connections:

An above-average Atlantic hurricane season is once again likely in 2022, the Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane forecasting team says in its latest seasonal forecast, issued April 7. In fact, last year’s hyperactive 2021 season is one of the top analogues.

Led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, with coauthor Dr. Michael Bell, the CSU team is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 160. In comparison, the long-term averages for the period 1991-2020 were 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 123.

The CSU outlook predicts the odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. to be 71% (long-term average: 52%). It gives a 47% chance for a major hurricane to hit the East Coast or Florida Peninsula (long-term average: 31%), and a 46% chance for the Gulf Coast (long-term average: 30%). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 60% chance of having at least one major hurricane pass through (long-term average: 42%).

The CSU forecast uses a statistical model honed from 40 years of past Atlantic hurricane statistics, plus output from the ECMWF (European) model, UKMET model, and Japan Meteorological Agency model to augment the statistical technique.

Below, from Meteorologist Craig Setzer on Twitter, slides from National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham.

Most eye-popping: More U.S. landfalling Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes in the past 5 years than in the previous 50+ years.

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Supreme Court Begins Unravelling Clean Water Act

And you thought is was about abortion.

Supreme Court gets busy on the real agenda. The one the big players were actually paying for.

And you thought is was about abortion.

Supreme Court gets busy on the real agenda. The one the big players were actually paying for.

Slate:

On Wednesday, the Supreme Court issued a 5–4 shadow docket order reviving a Trump-era ruling that radically limited the ability of states and tribes to restrict projects, like pipelines, that will damage the environment. With their decision, the majority upended decades of settled law recognizing states’ authority to protect their own waters without bothering to issue a single sentence of reasoning.

Just two days earlier, Justice Amy Coney Barrett once again declared that the Supreme Court is not political during a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library Foundation. Americans concerned that a particular ruling was “purely results-driven,” she said, should “read the opinion.” A close reading, Barrett asserted, would help the public decide if the ruling is “designed to impose the policy preferences of the majority” or an honest effort to “determine what the Constitution and precedent requires.”

But those upset by Wednesday’s decision, which strayed so far from all known law that even Chief Justice John Roberts was driven to dissent, cannot “read the opinion”—because there is none. If that logic-free attack on the Clean Water Act is not a “purely results-driven” attempt to “impose the policy preferences of the majority,” it’s hard to see what is.

The court’s order on Wednesday in Louisiana v. American Rivers is an affront to the Clean Waters Act, federalism, judicial restraint, and common sense. It arises out of a dispute between Donald Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency and a coalition of states and tribes. The Clean Water Act, first passed in 1972, is a quintessential example of “cooperative federalism”: It compels the federal government to work with states and tribes before approving a project that could diminish water quality. In a major 1994 ruling—one was accompanied by many pages of reasoning—the Supreme Court affirmed states’ and tribes’ authority to grant, modify, or deny certification of a potentially destructive energy project, like an oil pipeline or coal export facility.

For nearly 50 years, states and tribes have done just that, imposing additional requirements on these projects or vetoing them altogether. They may place limitations on discharge into the water, and “on the activity as a whole,” to protect their environments from pollution. This power has allowed states and tribes to uphold their own water quality standards—even when the federal government is eager to approve an energy company’s latest dangerous venture. The states often deny certification because the company refused to provide key information about the negative environmental impact on rivers, streams, and wetlands. Dissatisfied companies can contest a state or tribe’s decision in state or federal court, as well as administrative tribunals.

New York Times:

The Supreme Court on Wednesday reinstated an environmental regulation from the Trump administration that restricted the role states play in enforcing the Clean Water Act.

The court’s brief, unsigned order gave no reasons, which is typical when the justices act on an emergency application.

Four justices dissented, saying the majority had used a case on what critics call the court’s shadow docket to issue a significant ruling without adequate consideration.

Writing for the dissenters, Justice Elena Kagan said the court should have allowed the appeal to proceed in the ordinary course.

“The applicants have given us no good reason to think that in the remaining time needed to decide the appeal, they will suffer irreparable harm,” she wrote. “By nonetheless granting relief, the court goes astray.”

She added: “That renders the court’s emergency docket not for emergencies at all. The docket becomes only another place for merits determinations — except made without full briefing and argument.”

Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justices Stephen G. Breyer and Sonia Sotomayor joined Justice Kagan’s dissent.

The Clean Water Act envisions a role for states in issuing permits for discharges into the nation’s waters. Industry groups have long been frustrated by what the application called incongruities and ambiguities in an earlier regulation, in place for 50 years, which they said had allowed states to drag out and effectively veto projects on grounds other than the consideration of water quality.

The groups welcomed the new regulation, adopted in 2020, which narrowed the criteria for state certification, tightened deadlines and stopped states from imposing what they called “project-killing conditions.”


In her dissent, Justice Kagan wrote that the court’s ruling was a solution in search of a problem.

“The request for a stay rests on simple assertions — on conjectures, unsupported by any present-day evidence, about what states will now feel free to do,” she wrote. “And the application fails to show that proper implementation of the reinstated regulatory regime — which existed for 50 years before the vacated rule came into effect — is incapable of countering whatever state overreach may (but may not) occur.”

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“Scientist’s Rebellion” Targets Shell in UK

UPDATE:

Metro(London-UK):

Meanwhile, experts from around the globe have been taking part in what they called the ‘world’s largest ever scientist-led civil disobedience campaign’.

A number of them in the UK used modified fire extinguishers to spray biodegradable fake oil on a Shell building, where they also plastered scientific papers on the walls.

The scientists are calling for a ‘climate revolution now’ and say ‘1.5°C is dead’, in reference to the target for global warming, which the IPCC warned is almost out of reach.

One of those taking part, Cat Acheson, a social scientist and PhD researcher, said: ‘I’m here today taking non-violent direct action against Shell, because the continued use and expansion of fossil fuels is endangering all life on our planet.

‘I am terrified of the global suffering that companies like Shell are causing, and the lack of action from our government to put a stop to the harm.’

The global action, scheduled to run between April 4 and 9, is set to see hundreds of ‘Scientist Rebellion’ activists take ‘disruptive actions targeting scientific and governmental institutions’ in more than 25 countries, on every continent.

Below, video from scientist’s protests in San Francisco following the election of Donald Trump in the US.

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“Simply Put, They are Lying” – IPCC Calls out Government and Business Inaction on Climate

Above, BBC report summarizes the most recent IPCC release.
Path forward is daunting. Solutions exist, but can they be deployed in time? The Paris goal of 1.5 degree C warming is rapidly slipping out of reach.

Below, graph shows the difference between a global warming of 1.5 and 2 degrees C.
Turns out, its a lot.

In California, Voluntary Water Saving Not Working

Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times

Gotta water the lawn.

Los Angeles Times:

Total water usage in California cities and towns decreased by just half a percent in February compared to the same month in 2020, a far cry from Gov. Gavin Newsom’s goal of reducing urban water use by 15%.

Figures released this week by the State Water Resources Control Board showed that even during a third year of drought, Californians have been slow to step up conservation efforts. 

Joaquin Esquivel, chair of the water board, said it’s vital that Californians continue to make progress on conservation, “given not just this drought but the increasing aridity in the West” with climate change.

Newsom in July called for Californians to voluntary reduce water use by 15%. But the state’s cumulative water savings from July through February stand at 5.8% compared to the same months in 2020, down from 6.4% a month ago.

The levels of most of California’s biggest reservoirs, from Shasta Lake to San Luis Reservoir, are far below average. And the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada now stands at just 31% of average.


The mountain snowpack, which typically makes up nearly a third of California’s water supply, has shrunk rapidly during the state’s driest January through March on record.

“What we would normally anticipate being our wettest months of the year, we had historic dries this year,” Michael Macon, an environmental scientist, told the water board. He said the drought conditions are intensifying, “and we anticipate it only getting worse through the summer.”

This month is again expected to be warm and dry, Macon said, and based on the latest forecasts, “we’re looking at the driest three-year period on record.”


State officials presented data Tuesday that showed per-capita residential water use in February averaged 74 gallons per day, one of the highest amounts in nearly a decade. The month was warmer than average and extremely dry, which can push up water use. 

The board’s staff also analyzed data from urban water suppliers statewide and found that the vast majority of water agencies charge less per additional unit of water as customers use more.

“The effect of this is that customers who are using the most water are given this sort of bulk discount,” said Charlotte Ely of the agency’s research and planning office. “They’re paying less per unit as they consume more.”

Opinion: Hydrogen High Risk, Low Reward with Current Tech

Hadley Tallackson in Utility Dive:

Gas and electric utilities’ interest in hydrogen is growing as a potential pathway to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrogen, like natural gas, is flammable and can be burned for energy, but it doesn’t release carbon dioxide during combustion. This makes hydrogen seem like a compelling alternative for gas utilities looking to continue business-as-usual while meeting decarbonization goals or requirements. Since 2020, utilities have submitted at least 26 hydrogen pilot projects for regulatory approval across 15 states.

But new Energy Innovation research demonstrates these proposals carry high risks with little reward. Hydrogen blending would likely raise consumer costs, increase dangerous pollution, and risk public safety, all while minimally reducing emissions. Regulators must proceed with caution when considering hydrogen proposals and weigh them against more viable decarbonization strategies, particularly electrification.

Most hydrogen produced today is derived from an emissions-intensive process using natural gas, nicknamed “gray hydrogen,” and is largely used in oil refining and fertilizer production. But a decarbonized economy requires hydrogen to be made through zero-carbon processes. This “green hydrogen” is electrolyzed from water using renewable electricity, with oxygen as the only byproduct. While the process is carbon-free, the fuel still poses significant challenges for cutting emissions.

Hydrogen’s different chemical properties compared to natural gas makes complete fuel substitution unrealistic using current natural gas infrastructure and appliances. A 20% hydrogen/80% natural gas mix is the known blending limit before more substantial upgrades are needed, and even that is optimistic absent further research. That blend results in just a 7% cut in emissions compared to 100% natural gas — still at major cost for infrastructure retrofits or replacements.

Given these roadblocks, regulators should exercise skepticism when considering ratepayer-funded proposals to blend hydrogen with natural gas and should place a high burden of proof on utilities to demonstrate how these investments support a safe, viable and cost-effective long-term decarbonization strategy relative to alternatives.

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