Month: June 2019

Poll: GOP Worried Climate Denial turns off Young voters

Frank Luntz is a well known Republican pollster, and author of a key road map from the early 2000s for Republican office holders on how to delay meaningful action on climate. So, yeah, he’s a monster.

He has results to new polling data showing that even in the dim Fox-addled reaches of the GOP, climate has become an important issue, and one for which there is a popular solution.
Above, PBS interview from 2007.

The Hill:

Prominent GOP pollster Frank Luntz is warning Republican lawmakers that the public’s views on climate change are shifting and that ignoring the issue could cost them important votes at the ballot box.

In a memo circulated to Republican congressional offices on Wednesday, Luntz Global Partners warned that 58 percent of Americans, as well as 58 percent of GOP voters under the age of 40, are more concerned about climate change than they were just one year ago.

The polling group also noted that 69 percent of GOP voters are concerned that the party’s stance on climate change is “hurting itself with younger votes.”

Of the GOP voters under the age of 40, more than half, or 55 percent, said they are “very or extremely” concerned about their party’s position on climate change.

“Climate Change is a GOP VULNERABILITY and a GOP OPPORTUNITY,” read a copy of the memo obtained by The Hill. “Yes, Republican voters want a solution. It is on measures of salience to vote that we have detected the greatest change.”

“The appetite for seeing real action is palpable to voters of both sides,” the memo states.

Referring to a listening session with likely voters, the memo said many are angered that GOP leadership “ceded the issue to the Dems.”

“Typically, the most effective campaign approach is to build-out from the base. … Not here; there’s simply too much recognition that the politicking has blocked Progress,” the group said in the memo.

Luntz Memo on Climate Strategy:

  1. I. Climate Change is a GOP VULNERABILITY and a GOP OPPORTUNITY… Yes, Republican voters want a solution. 

It is on measures of salience to vote that we have detected the greatest change. 58% of Americans – including 58% of GOP voters under 40 – are more concerned about climate change now than they were only one year ago. The appetite for seeing real action is palpable to voters of both sides. This underlying fact sets the stage for the country and defines the political landscape for climate change. 

69% of GOP voters are concerned their party is ‘hurting itself with younger voters’ by its climate stance. Meanwhile, 55% of GOP voters under 40 are ‘very or extremely’ concerned about their party’s position on climate change. In the listening sessions, we heard real anger that leadership has ‘ceded the issue to the Dems.’ 

  1. II. In the age of ‘partisan divide,’ this is the ONE area where BI-PARTISANSHIP trumps everything else. 

Typically, the most effective campaign approach is to build-out from the base… Not here; there’s simply too much recognition that the politicking has blocked progress. Even in our current political atmosphere, 80% of all American voters say it’s important for any national climate solution to be bipartisan. 

Americans across the country are looking to see real leadership that can spearhead a bipartisan solution to climate change. These feelings are set to carry to the ballot box. Most American voters (65%), including a majority of Republicans (53%), have said they would be more likely to support a candidate who supported Carbon Dividends. In other words, this plan – in stark contrast to the ‘Green New Deal’ – has significant, measurable impact on Vote. 

Continue reading “Poll: GOP Worried Climate Denial turns off Young voters”

How to Recognize Cyber-prop, and Push Back

European Commission tweet features my friend Stephen Lewandowsky, Australian psychologist and expert on persuasion techniques. Here, Stephen points out an obvious warning sign of cyber propaganda.

Dr. Lewandowsky is featured in my video on this topic from 2 years ago, on best practices for climate (or any) myth busting and communication.

Video: New Process Might Mean Faster Permafrost Melt

A few months ago, I posted a piece, based on interviews with leading permafrost experts, that pushed back, hard, on the “we’re all gonna die and there’s nothing we can do” catastrophism around the so-called “methane bomb” in the arctic. (I’ll repost that one below if you have not seen it)

That’s not to say that we don’t have a problem. When people tell me that the world is about to end, my response is that we’re not getting off that easy.
Above, more from the same researchers, looking at a little more fine grained data from the permafrost – and observations of a phenomenon that is coming into sharper focus.
As the planet warms, permafrost is softening, causing microbes to awaken and begin feeding on the organic matter therein – releasing more CO2 and methane. Good enough – but a lot of folks don’t understand that THAT process alone is not a world breaker – in fact, as more vegetation springs from softened permafrost, photosynthesis is kicking in – carbon is being stored, and in some models, actually sequestering more carbon.

The more pressing issue coming into focus is that the permafrost does not melt uniformly, and tends to collapse here and there into thousands, maybe millions, of lakes – that break through the surface “active layer” of the permafrost, and into the reservoir of more deeply stored carbon.
These lakes are hot-spots of carbon and methane release, and could add substantially to the total output in coming centuries.
It’s not the sudden catastrophic impact of disaster movies, but, as one of the experts, Katey Walter Anthony, told me, “..it’s a strong headwind.”

Continue reading “Video: New Process Might Mean Faster Permafrost Melt”

Finding Your Voice in the Climate Debate

Gavin Schmidt on Twitter – via ThreadReaderApp:

A thread on the iniquity, chance and contingent nature of having a ‘voice’ in the climate debate.

“To those that have shall be given” is a paraphrase of Mathew 13:12 where it refers to knowledge. But it is an apt description of the attention economy too.

People in the public eye, or who already have ‘voices’, are overwhelmingly the favorite ppl to be asked to do new things, be part of new projects, and if these are successful, have their profile even more elevated.

This is, of course, tremendously unfair to the voices that have new or untold stories to tell.

But there was a time when all of these voices were unknown to the wider public. How did that change? Why were these voices ‘plucked’ from obscurity? Were they born with a silver microphone in their lapels?

“Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon ’em.” (Twelfth night). 

The same is true for a public voice.
Ironically, the credit for that line is given to Malvolio, even though it was nominally written by Maria whose letter Malvolio is reading. (There’s a lesson there…)

Where did I get my ‘voice’ for instance? (such that it is). I’d always been someone who liked to explain things to classmates, and I took a broad view of the subject (I’m a lumper, not a splitter), but I didn’t have any special access.

My first (brief) interview was with @RadioCanadaInfo who were covering a local climate conference. I’d given a talk on Cretaceous climate. Afterwards they explained how interested their listeners were in dinosaurs. 

Here is the interview in full:

[RC] what was the climate of the cretaceous like? 

[me] it was hot.

[RC] how hot?

[me] very hot!

[RC] merci!

Out of such trifles are reputations in public speaking made. 😉

In the late 1990s, some of my science got a little press attention – nothing massive. 

In 2001, I was driven to writing letters to the editor to correct egregious nonsense.
(At this point I was still naively expecting to be thanked for my efforts.) 

[narrator: he was not]
I started to meet & learn from an older generation of spokespeople – Jim Hansen, Steve Schneider, and develop relationships with journalists. 
But my frustration with the ‘public discourse’ about climate grew. The talking heads were the Jon Snow’s of climate – they knew nothing.
But folks that did have expertise didn’t have any direct lines to the newsrooms and there weren’t enough of them anyway.

What could be done?
At a scientist/journalist workshop in 2003(?) organized by Bud Ward, I realized that many others shared my frustration and a sense that something needed to change. But practical ideas were thin on the ground.

Then came the Day After Tomorrow – a singular film that is simultaneously the worst and the best film to ever have a paleo-climatologist as the lead character. (Think about it).
It should have/could have been a massive teaching moment. Instead, we got this…

Continue reading “Finding Your Voice in the Climate Debate”

Even Before the Floods, Farms were in Crisis. Wind Power is One Answer

For WindBaggers, Farmers are just the help.

All too often, the typical paranoid anti-wind NIMBY is a new comer to the community, someone who moved from somewhere else.
The 3rd, 4th, and 5th generation farmers who work the land are seen as just Groundskeepers, there to maintain an unchanging pastoral backdrop for for wealthier people’s lifestyles.

It’s time folks realized that family farms are the bedrock of our rural communities, stewards of the land, and the source of what we love about our small towns and countryside.

Fortune:

Imagine, if you can, a computer virus that cut the productivity of Apple, Google, and Facebook in half. Or try to imagine Wall Street’s investment bankers seeing a season’s worth of deals washed away. Such calamities would dominate our nation’s news and drive swift political action. Yet that is precisely what America’s farmers face right now. And, as a country, we aren’t paying nearly enough attention.

Farmers are generally too proud and humble to speak out, but the truth is we are living through an extremely difficult period of market turmoil and natural disasters. Due largely to sustained low commodity prices, average farm income in 2017 was $43,000, while the median farm income for 2018 was negative $1,500. In 2018, Chapter 12 bankruptcies in the farm states across the Midwest that are responsible for nearly half of all sales of U.S farm products rose to the highest level in a decade.

And then the floods came to the Midwest. Farmers have been significantly delayed in their planting this year due to rain and soggy ground, and as the planting window closes, some will have to make a decision about whether to plant a crop this year at all. As of June 9, just 60% of America’s soybean acres had been planted in our highest-producing states, compared with nearly 90% typically planted by this time of year. And just 83% of the corn crop is in the ground in the most productive states, a number that should be pushing 100%.

These disasters would be catastrophic at the best of times. But the fact is the rural communities in which our farmers operate are also struggling because local businesses’ revenue and incomes are tied to farmers’ incomes and livelihoods. Farmers and rural families want the same things for their communities that we all do: access to quality education, health care, and technology, and strong local communities. There are challenges in these areas, as well. 

Roughly one in three rural Americans, and one in four farmers, are without broadband access, cutting them off from services like telemedicine and educational tools. Many parents have to drive to the local McDonald’s so their kids can get Internet access to finish homework. Rural America faces a shortage of doctors—more than 100 rural hospitals have closed since 2010—even as they endure the regular dangers of farm life and the rolling tragedy of an opioid crisis. “Three in four farmers and farm workers (74%) are or have been directly impacted by opioid abuse, either by knowing someone, having a family member addicted, having taken an illegal opioid or having dealt with addiction themselves,” according to a survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Continue reading “Even Before the Floods, Farms were in Crisis. Wind Power is One Answer”

Climate is No Joke, but Humor Might Help

Science Communication:

Kimmel on Climate: Disentangling the Emotional Ingredients of a Satirical Monologue – Abstract:

This study explored whether satire (an emotional blend of humor/indignation) can minimize the emotional tradeoffs researchers have documented for humorous appeals about climatechange. Using a sample of U.S. young adults, we conducted a 2 (humor: present/absent) × 2 (indignation: present/absent) + 1 (control) experiment in which we manipulated a climatechange segment from Jimmy Kimmel Live! Our evidence suggests that it is possible for a late-night host to affect young adults’ climate change risk perception and behavioral intentions under certain conditions. 

I loved seeing my friend Aradhna Tripati in the “I’m not fucking with you” vid – definitely a classic of this genre. (disaster education humor?)

Below, another friend, John Cook, was one of the young scientists I profiled in the latest Yale Climate Connections vid, on creative ways to communicate science. As a scientist/cartoonist, John has also used humor to get the point across.

Continue reading “Climate is No Joke, but Humor Might Help”

Heat Waves Reach New Level under Climate Change

Washington Post:

Simultaneous heat waves scorched land areas all over the Northern Hemisphere last summer, killing hundreds and hospitalizing thousands while intensifying destructive and deadly wildfires.

A study published this week in the journal Earth’s Future concludes that this heat wave epidemic “would not have occurred without human-induced climate change.”

The alarming part? There are signs record-setting heat waves are beginning anew this summer — signaling, perhaps, that these exceptional and widespread heat spells are now the norm.

In the past few days, blistering, abnormal heat has afflicted several parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including major population centers.

New Delhi, India’s capital, soared to 118.4 degrees (48 Celsius) Monday, its highest temperature ever recorded in June. Some parts of India have seen the mercury eclipse 122 degrees (50 Celsius) in recent days, not far off the country’s all-time high.

On the other side of the hemisphere, the temperature in San Francisco shot up to 100 degrees (37.8 Celsius) Monday, its highest temperatures ever recorded in the months of June, July or August, or this early in the calendar year.

Heat spread unusually far north, even up into the northern reaches of Scandinavia. Mika Rantanen, a meteorologist at the University of Helsinki, tweeted last Friday that there “are no known cases in Finland’s climate history when it has been hotter than now so early in the summer.” Temperatures above 86 degrees (30 Celsius) penetrated inside the Arctic Circle, he noted.

As Glaciers Melt, Scientists Warn of Water Wars

Yesterday’s news reported that at least one man was killed in a conflict over water in India this week.

Above, glacier experts Lonnie Thompson and Konrad Steffen note that a huge human population in Asia is dependent on major river runoff from the Himalayan Glaciers, which are declining due to climate warming.
Worth remembering that these societies have historically been at war with each other, are developing rapidly, and are nuclear armed.

The Independent:

A man has died during a fight over water in southern India as the country continues to be gripped by a 50C heatwave.

The 33 year old was allegedly beaten to death after confronting a man and his sons as they were reportedly drawing large amounts of water from a public tap in the city of Thanjavur, in Tamil Nadu, police said on Friday.

Police named the victim as D Anand Babu, from the village of Vilar, near Thanjavur, The Times of India reports.

According to police, a 48-year-old man and his three sons were filling plastic barrels with water from a tap connected to a nearby tank on Wednesday when Mr Babu spotted them.

The victim is said to have got into an altercation with the group after asking whether they should be collecting such a high volume given the lack of water in the area.

He was taken to hospital but died the following day, The Times of India reported.
–

Scorching temperatures and water shortages have caused “heavy casualties, including dozens of deaths by sunstroke and other heat-related causes”, according to The Weather Channel.

Indian media said last Friday that 17 people had died in three weeks.

Flood Aftermath: Not a Drop to Drink

IowaWatch:

Contamination of private well water in southwest Iowa from human and natural causes is a problem even in dry times. But in this year of prolonged flooding, well owners have heightened concerns and are keeping county health officials busy testing water for contaminants such as coliform and E. coli bacteria, nitrates and arsenic. More well owners are availing themselves of the Iowa Department of Natural Resources program that pays for private well testing.

The flood has not caused a huge spike in levels of coliform and E. coli bacteria, nitrates and arsenic in the region, according to state and county environmental health officials interviewed by IowaWatch, but many well owners face challenges in keeping their water safe to drink.

After pumping four feet of water from their 15 year-old home’s basement, the Stephenses had to wait “until water quit shooting out of the top of the wellhead,” to get the well back in operation, Jamie Stephens said. The artesian effect was caused by hydrostatic pressure in the saturated soil around the well.

The Stephenses had the well tested twice in May and shocked it with disinfectants repeatedly, following recommendations from their county sanitarian.

In a text this past week, Stephens wrote: “We are still working on getting everything bad out of the water. Not drinkable yet. Shocked the well twice and waiting for the test results from the last shock to see if it’s clear to drink.”

–

Continue reading “Flood Aftermath: Not a Drop to Drink”

India’s Brutal Heat Sparks Water Violence

The future is here, it’s just not evenly distributed. – William Gibson

DeutscheWelle:

Police were tasked with guarding water tankers and water sources in Madhya Pradesh state in central India, the Times of India reported on Saturday, following clashes over water in the state and other parts of the country.

Temperatures in India reached 50.3 degrees Celsius (122.54 Fahrenheit) last week, nearing the record high of 51 degrees Celsius set in 2016. Authorities have been distributing water to areas most affected by the heat wave, but the scarcity of water has prompted fights and stabbings at relief points.

At least six people were stabbed by a man near Ranchi, the capital of Jharkhand state, on Friday. There was a fight with a man from a neighboring village who was filling barrels of water from a tanker, according to a report on NDTV. A man died in a similar fight on the same day in southern Tamil Nadu state. Two men were seriously injured in a fight over water in Madhya Pradesh on Wednesday and a tanker truck driver was beaten up in the same state a day earlier.

Commenting on the decision to deploy police in Madhya Pradesh, the state’s home minister, Bala Bachchan, said police would only guard tankers at “sensitive places” where flare-ups were possible.

“This doesn’t happen everywhere,” he said. “I have asked officials to be alert.”

Media in the same state also reported that a group of monkeys died of heatstroke in the Joshi Baba forest and that tigers have been moving out of the wild into villages, searching for water.

Some parts of India gained relief from the heat after annual monsoon rains reached the south of the subcontinent, over a week later than expected.