Video description from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR):
A brief comparison of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies between the major El Niño event of 1997-98 and the El Niño event emerging in 2015. The visualization depicts data from the NOAA 1/4° daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST). The data are combined from sources such as satellites, buoy networks, and ships. The OISST analyses are named for the key satellite sensor used: in this case, the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR).
With this year’s El Niño shaping up to rival the strongest on record, comparisons to the last major El Niño, in 1997-1998, are inevitable. A new animation showing the development of each event side-by-side is the latest example, and provides a window into the similarities and differences between the two climate events.
Those similarities and differences matter because they can affect how an El Niño’s typical impacts on global weather — from drought to deluges — shape up, the reason it receives such rapt attention.
On Tuesday, the World Meteorological Organization declared this El Nino a strong one, and some scientists have noted that sea surface temperatures in a key part of the eastern Pacific are higher than in previous events by this point of the year. Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Columbia University said in their August update that temperatures in that region could reach more than 3.5°F above normal when this event peaks in the winter, something only recorded three times in the 65 years of record-keeping, including the 1997-1998 event (as well as 1982-1983 and 1972-1973).
With the inevitable comparisons between this El Niño and the 1997-1998 event — remembered for the incredible rains and mudslides it brought to California (along with Chris Farley’s memorable Saturday Night Live sketch) — Matt Rehme at the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Visualization Lab, worked up an animation showing the progression of each event from January through August.
“I was a little shocked just how closely 2015 resembles 1997 visually,” Rehme said in a statement.
But as any El Niño researcher will tell you, no two El Niño events are alike, and the impacts from this one aren’t guaranteed to be just like 1997-1998.
The most obvious difference between this year and that event, clearly visible in the animation, is the “blob” of warm water off the west coast of North America, a symptom of the relentless high pressure pattern that has kept the West hot and dry over much of the last few years and led to the deep drought in California.
Right now, it is unclear how this warm patch will interact with the typical El Niño impacts (which aren’t guaranteed to materialize). That warmth could mean that any storms that hit drop more rain instead of much-needed snow that could help replenish depleted reservoirs.
I’m concerned that “The Blob”, which has been blamed on diverting the polar jet stream north and keeping California in drought, will continue to do so during this El Nino. This is not something I’ve heard talked about. I hear a lot of “El Nino is here – the rains are coming!” but I fear this is far too simplistic. I HOPE the rains are coming. I’m in drought Central.
As the ocean is the dog that wags the atmospheric tail, I would guess that the blob is not just a symptom of the high pressure, but also a cause.
The animation surely does “…provide a window into the similarities and differences between the two climate events”. The similarities are obvious, since an El Nino is an El Nino, but the differences are what concern me.
The problem is that “…no two El Nino events are alike”, and that blob is truly worrisome. Who the heck knows at this point what it means in terms of how it will affect the CA drought, never mind the Pacific NW, Alaska, the Arctic, and countries on the other side of the globe. Indy222 is right to be concerned—-I’M concerned, and I live on the other side of the country. (And waiting around to see what happens is hell).