Sea Ice “Recovery” Continues! Well, Alrighty then…

Dana Nuccitelli has updated his graph showing how many times arctic sea ice has “recovered” in the last few decades, while continuing its long-term downward trend.

We can be sure climate deniers will continue to tell us about sea ice “recovery” even when we see open  water across the arctic some time in the next couple decades, if not sooner.

Dana Nuccitelli in the Guardian:

Natural factors play a role in the extent of the Arctic sea ice as well, especially changes in weather conditions on a year-to-year basis. For example, 2012 shattered the previous record low Arctic sea ice extent because on top of the human influences, the weather conditions were ripe for a dramatic decline that year. In 2013 and 2014, weather conditions were closer to normal, so they didn’t break the 2012 record. As a result, the usual suspects have declared that Arctic sea ice is now “expanded” compared to two years ago.

The flaw in that argument is illustrated in this animated graphic I created. (above)

We can also consider Arctic sea ice extent further back in time, over the past 145 years:

Average July through September Arctic sea ice extent 1870–2008 from the University of Illinois (Walsh & Chapman 2001 updated to 2008) and observational data from NSIDC for 2009–2014.

Or even the past 1,450 years:

 

44 thoughts on “Sea Ice “Recovery” Continues! Well, Alrighty then…”


  1. LITTLEBIT OF TRUTH:

    Dana Nuccitelli is wrong as everybody else!
    1] over 200y ago, captain Cook was commissioned to map the Northwest Passage; because it existed! He was experienced and would have gone from north pacific via the polar cap into Atlantic, if the natives in pacific didn’t kill him…

    2] the ice is melting there, not because of the global temp, but because of the strong currents; salty seawater melts the ice from below.

    3] in a year when the Russian rivers produce more water – that freshwater spreads on the top of the heavier salty water and is protecting the ice from the salty currents, PLUS that freshwater is converted into ice.

    4] when not enough freshwater from those rivers – to compensate for the water deficit taken by the currents – more salty warm-water comes from north pacific towards the north poll via Bering (there are another 3 factors that affect the amount of ice on Arctic, BUT nothing to do with the global temperature!!!!


    1. Christopher Arcus Says: ”The northwest passage existed?”

      Chris, please read the whole comment I make…

      2] the Great Prophet / Bullshine Merchant Al Gore ”predicted” that: ”by 2020 Arctic will be ice free”
      A: on Arctic gets lower than minus -75C (-103F) if the phony GLOBAL warming gets so hot, to melt arctic’s ice – you will not be worried about the arctic ice, BUT, in US the temperature would get to 106C (222,8F) how many degrees is that in Fahrenheit ABOVE WATER BOILING POINT? The fat sod will hard boil as a rotten egg in less than 10 minutes.

      Prophet Al’s brains is in his rump, or maybe his rump is soo big because of too many T bone stakes; definitely not from eating mung beans sprouts… what do you think

      People, don’t overdo it… this is the best advice you will ever get! Happy bullshine distributing!!!


  2. Arcus and stefanthedumber. They have found each other and are singing a duet! A match made in heaven.


    1. Arcus and stefanthedumber – you know, I see the possibility of synergy here. Tea Party meets the green movement. Let’s explore how this could work…

      What we do to improve the Arctic sea ice situation is to set up huge refrigerators at Point Barrow, Alaska, to make ice. We dump that ice into the Arctic Ocean to keep it cool and maintain the floating ice cap. This is a solution that I’m sure the Teabaggers could love.

      Ah, but burning fossil fuel to make ice – that would be a no-no. This is where greens could contribute to the conversation. We’ll run the refrigerators on wind power.

      Just shows the great things we can accomplish when brilliant minds come together.


      1. There was “meaning” to what you said? I’m sorry, but I just took it for another on of your inanities. You know, that “twitch” YOU have where you feel the need to say something even though you really have nothing to say?

        “Sea Ice Hockey Stick” is about as perceptive as saying “Sun Comes Up”. Lord love a duck!


  3. Cook’s ships sailed round the Alaskan peninsula and through the Bering strait and then turned east. They met impenetrable ice in mid-August and were forced to turn back.
    After Cook was killed in Hawaii Captain Clerke took command and returned to the Arctic for another attempt. He too was beaten pack by inpenatrable pack ice.
    The rest of your ridiculous ravings are so absurd as to be not even worth parsing.


  4. lesliegraham1 Says: ”Cook’s ships sailed round the Alaskan peninsula…”

    FACT 1: Cook sailed, because ”the Admiralty did know that the summer stronger currents melt some ice and open water existed then, same as now.

    FACT 2: the currents come from Bering, than they split in two and come out into north Atlantic by the Labrador and by the Norwegian currents.

    FACT 3: those saltywater currents are melting the ice ”from below” there are big patches of exposed water up to the north poll (on Russian they are called ”Polynya” don’t know on English) b] the ice sacrifices some of itself, to create freshwater buffer between the ice and the salty water, BUT when the current speed up in summer -> more and more ice needs to be sacrificed, until ice is no more, no panic; nothing to do with the phony global warming.

    FACT 4: Leslie, anybody can look at the map and see that: most of the russian rivers drain into arctic b] anybody knows that: rivers some years produce more water, other years less; what’s your problem with that?!

    I’m your friend, guys; I understand that you have to tell lies, but make is smaller ones, don’t overdo it…

    1] constantly you are showing; ”ice falling from the cliff” and calling it; ”ice meting” – since when ”falling” is called melting? next time when you fall down / drunk = say that ”you melted”…

    2] the warmest it gets on Antarctic coast is to minus -4C (24,8F) -ice ”starts” melting at +1C (33,8F) from -4C to +1C is 6C – the planet must warm up by 6C, for the first ice crystal to melt from the phony global warming – therefore: if ice is melting on the polar caps – look for real reasons, not the silly global temp ( ice can melt for many reasons) There is PERMANENT ice in New Zealand and Patagonia, 1000 miles north, closer to the equator – don’t you think that ice should melt first, before the phony global warming reaches antarctic?! Did the phony global warming lost its compass completely?

    3] the phony Skeptics / Anthony Watt’s Mushrooms (AWM) are also telling me that; polar caps melted in the past and can melt again! here is reality:

    On the polar caps the temp is minus -75C (-103F); for both polar caps to melt, the planet’s temp needs to warm up by 76C … cool – if the planet warmed by 76C and put another 37C (98F)which is today in the tropics and subtropics 76 + 37 = 113C which is (235,8F). 113C is 13C above the water BOILING point (23,8F ABOVE WATER BOILING POINT)… From bacteria, trees, grass, animals and birds; all of them have water in their body = everything would have being cooked and sterilized in less than 10 minutes in the tropics and subtropics!!! Do you believe that 60% of the planet got sterilized?! ”Pagan belief s” which are the ”Skeptic’s” gospel AND the Warmist used those same pagan beliefs, to create their LIE that is going to be warmer planet in 100 years, is 100% WRONG!!


  5. I told you before guys, why is Arctic’s ice melting; I discovered why:::

    Because all the Warmist and Skeptics are playing with their little fire trucks and little water pistols, to cool the earth -> Santa had to make extension on his toy factory = that released much more CO2… plus Rudolf’s and Al Gore’s methane melted the ice… ready to panic!

    You boys from Skeptic’s &Warmist camps should stop playing with your little water pistols – they may fall off

    What’s called on English: a person who plays too much with his little water pistol?


      1. Charley, my ”science” is pure unadulterated 24 carat FACTS.

        You guys should be happy for me bringing the good news – otherwise you will have a nervous breakdown, from constant fear…

        In everything there is good and bad – if somebody brings only the bad = easy to see why…
        If one can scare the Russians and Canadians that: in that fridge called Canada will get 2C warmer… ?!…


        1. “After sundown, CO2 loses benefit from the sunlight / cools and falls to the ground – that’s when the trees and crops are most active, after 8pm. In the morning the sunlight lifts CO2 up again as it does with a fog.”

          “Even those radio waves on TV, radio, mobile telephone are of different frequencies; kilohertz / megahertz. Shouldn’t be confused with longwave radiation, which travels on very, very short distances; as few microns only.”

          Are these facts?


        1. I would bet that stefan most certainly HAS taken a physics course. Actually, one must have a pretty good understanding of physics and other sciences in order to do what stefan has done, and that is to twist all our accumulated scientific knowledge into a gigantic spoof of climate science deniers.

          I also suspect that “stefan” may not be one individual but a committee of geeks who entertain themselves by coming up with all this fractured physics—a look at stefan’s website shows a huge quantity of it—too much for one person (unless they are locked in a padded room and have nothing else to do).

          And the “fractured English” that stefan speaks is a great touch—-adds some believability to it all—-much more so than if such craziness were expressed in proper English.

          Right on, stefan! You’ve got talent, and although you’re entertaining, I can’t help but think it’s wasted.


  6. Chlamydia says:

    ” here is reality:

    On the polar caps the temp is minus -75C (-103F); for both polar caps to melt, the planet’s temp needs to warm up by 76C ”

    Gadzooks, what a moron.

    You know, the internet is criticized as a venue for sadists to find pleasure in nasty commentary. Logorrhea comes to mind.

    Well, the opposite is also true – it allows prissy numbskulls like STD safe haven. Because if this was meatspace, I or someone else would have cuffed him severely about his head and shoulders long ago. And made him cry.


    1. I am sorry but it seems I took the bait out of bewilderment at the exceptional ignorance of real science in some people. But I agree. I think its not very constructive, and part of me wouldn’t mind if Peter snipped away these rather silly denier postings (as well as the mockery ones, mine included).


  7. I would like to know why so many on here think that there is any value in acting like jerks to one another. There is not, even to wacko deniers with their fantasy physics and Dunning-Krüger self-confidence. No, you just sound like jerks.

    There are posters on here who provide useful discussion and links. But if I have to keep wading through all the insults and abuse to get to it, I will stop attending.


    1. Reluctantly, and sadly, I must agree. There is no need for personal attack. There are a number of learned bloggers exchanging info on Sea level rise and so forth. Occasionally a denier troll steps forth. And there are disagreements within the community. I have seen blog posters disagree with genuine respect. It is possible. It would be a shame to lose readership because the conversation had deteriorated.


  8. To Stephen Pare—in response to his several comments,

    Thank you for expressing your opinion, although I DO wish you had presented some arguments to back up your rather bald assertion that what I said was “abuse”. Thank you also for following up on that judgment with the rather bald-faced threat to “ask that I be banned” if I don’t measure up to YOUR standards. Although it sounds like you may be one of those people who are so very comfortable in their opinions and perhaps unlikely to alter them even when confronted with facts, perhaps you would like to explore this issue of “abuse” a bit further?

    Let’s start with Peter’s post—-“Sea Ice Recovery”. Peter did us a service by providing a nice update with the latest figures and a review of things that we have discussed many times before on Crock. We have discussed “hockey sticks” as such in many contexts—-I myself have made reference to human population dynamics data and “blog 2009: The Graph”, which both display “hockey sticks” (blog 2009 has 24), as well as many other graphs of fuel usage that show upward trends if not quite the “sharp bends” of hockey sticks. I have also on several occasions posted the link to the Youtube clip on “Arctic Sea Ice Death Spiral”, which is a far more informative circular plot of ice volume versus time than the hockey stick graph, since it shows volume by month by year. Have you looked at that? If not, google it.

    My point is that we are in familiar territory—Arctic Sea Ice—and many of us watch it closely along with all the other worrisome things going on in the northern hemisphere—Greenland ice sheet melt, dark ice, wildfires, drought, sea level rise, rapid temperature rise, methane releases, species extinction, ocean acidification. For me, arctic sea ice is a big canary in the coal mine.

    So, when I see a comment as inane, unnecessary, and meaningless as “It’s the sea ice hockey stick!” delivered by someone I consider to be one of the real “abusers” on Crock, I see red.

    IMO, YOU are the one that “sounds like a jerk” when the level of your analysis of the interaction among Crockers rises no higher than your saying “I would like to know why so many on here think that there is any value in acting like jerks to one another”.

    Perhaps if you spent the time to explore the many exchanges between Arcus and I on more than the superficial aspects of “tone” and perceived “niceness”, you might discover who the “jerk” is and why. I have laid out my concerns with Arcus’s postings many times on many threads. They are clear and supportable. I suspect you haven’t really bothered to look at our exchanges. If you had, you might not be so quick to cast stones..

    I will resist the urge to say “Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out if you stop attending” because some might interpret that as “abusive”, even though I would be sincerely concerned for your well-being if I DID say that.

    Let me know if you’d like to pursue this question of “abusiveness” further.


  9. Stephen Pare has not responded to my suggestion that we look into the question of “abusiveness” on Crock in more detail. Perhaps he is doing his “research’ and looking at past exchanges between Arcus and I so that he will have more of a factual basis for his next proclamation regarding “The World According to Stephen Pare”? I hope that’s the case, rather than him leaving Crocks as he threatened to do. I remember his past contributions to be good ones, even though he hasn’t commented very often, and I’m sure he would continue to benefit from the great information and insights that Peter and the Crock community provide if he stayed with us.

    Perhaps he has rethought his earlier reference to “Dunning-Krüger self-confidence” and realized that he suffers from it himself to some degree? (I speak of his making snap judgments about the dynamics of the discourse on Crock).

    He speaks of “acting like jerks towards wacko deniers with their fantasy physics and Dunning-Krüger self-confidence”, but doesn’t .seem to realize that some Crockers who are NOT obvious wacko deniers also suffer from D-K, Arcus being perhaps the best example.

    Many of us have been “abusive” towards the stefanthedeniers and roaldjlarsens of the world because they have been so disrespectful of our intelligence and time—-they have asked for it and deserve it, IMO. Stephen fails to see that a far more insidious danger to the Crock community is the commenter who seems to be positive, informed, and concerned about AGW issues but has a confidence level WAY above his competence level. The misinformation and misinterpretation of data that is sown in the minds of Crockers by such a commenter is what is “abusive”, not attempts to get the “abuser” to shape up.

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