I interviewed Chris Ruoff, publisher of Charged magazine, at last month’s EV and Battery show near Detroit.
He gives a down to earth, insider’s perspective on where the EV industry is heading. I’m working on a new piece that will explore in more depth, and this is some of the raw material I’m working with.
When will lithium-ion battery prices reach the price point of $100 per kWh that so many in the media are calling the “magic number?” According to Winfried Hoffmann, an analyst at the consulting firm ASE, the glad day will dawn sometime around 2030.
Hoffmann, the former CTO of Applied Materials, is a well-known figure in the photovoltaic world. In the early days of the solar energy boom, he made some predictions about the future cost curve of solar modules that have proven to be quite accurate. Hoffman applied similar logic to his predictions about battery costs, which he outlined in detail at a presentation during the recent EU PVSEC meeting in Amsterdam.
In an interview with pv magazine, which covers the solar energy field, Hoffman said he expects lithium-ion batteries to “break the sound barrier” of $100 per kWh around the same time that the world’s total storage capacity reaches one terawatt-hour. That figure currently stands at approximately 7 GWh, so assuming an average annual growth rate of 31%, cumulative capacity of one tWh will be achieved by 2030.
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Hoffman characterized his prediction as an optimistic one, saying, “Experts in their own field are often unable to imagine how fast prices can fall.” However, a recent report that focused on Tesla’s battery technology appeared to reach a similar conclusion, saying, “Our assessment shows that pack pricing for the 2025 time scale could be as low as $167/kWh.” Even that is conservative compared to the vision of Elon Musk, who has said that he would be “disappointed if it took us 10 years to get to a $100/kWh pack.”
The $1/gallon equivalent cost is here, today. The thing that’s still lacking is charging. In the “big city” near me, discounting the odd car dealership, there is exactly one place with public charging stations. A charger has recently been installed at a hotel, but it is for guests only. There’s one at a resort in between, but it’s rather expensive and seems to bill by the hour rather than the kWh.
There are many outlets suitable for opportunity charging, but it can be hard to get permission to use them.
http://newsroom.crackerbarrel.com/press_kits.cfm?presskit_id=2
Nice post. Chargers are going up in the oddest ways. Right now, EV numbers are relatively small. As they grow we can expect more charging stations, but for now, home charging is tops. Next up is workplace and shopping charging. There is a network of chargers on I 5 on the west coast from So cal to Washington. On the east coast there are chargers in the high traffic corridors. What’s lacking is a full national infrastructure build out. Chargers along I 80 would be interesting.
For the PHEV owner, even Level 1 charging is a significant benefit. If businessess offered their outdoor outlets to patrons, they could bring in traffic at a very minor cost (1.44 kW costs less than 20¢/hour at my residential rate and about 15¢/hour at the TCL&P small-commercial rate).
Of course, nothing in Michigan is mentioned.
Digging elsewhere on their site, I just found that the US-31/South Airport location in Traverse City has a Level 2 charger. I think Cracker Barrel just got my business for dinner tonight.
After dinner be sure to load up on all that Made in China stuff in The Country Store. Lots of carbon footprint there to balance out your EV.
Turns out that that store doesn’t have the Level 2 charger mentioned on the web page on the corporate site.
Glad I phoned to confirm it was operational before going there.
Michigan is just about the most hostile environment for EVs in the universe. Detroit might have something to do with that. Its starting to change as they see somebody somewhere else have success with EVs. But in terms of infrastructure or incentives, it has been “chilly”. Its remarkable that Kentucky has shown more hospitality and other places have much better charging infrastructures.
Kentucky can be progressive for a coal-digging red state. They did accept Medicaid Expansion and set up their own exchange under the ACA.
It’s pretty state too, if you don’t go near the coal mines (and can avoid meeting that turtle face McConnell). You can help get rid of him and improve Kentucky by sending some last minute $$$ to his opponent, Alison Lundergan Grimes
Alison for Kentucky
P.O. Box 1867
Lexington, KY 40588
That will help her run the shotgun ad a few more times
http://youtu.be/GkuMYQ01J7k
And if you want some laughs, read this Daily Beast article. Some fool gets his knickers knotted over skeet vs. trap, and some of the comments are priceless. Like “pedantic politicizing pud-heads”
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/16/allison-grimes-new-tv-ad-is-one-big-gun-gaffe.html?via=desktop&source=email
Funny thing about the US. It’s not United at all. It’s like Fifty separate countries. Hey. She’s a pretty good shot.