Just days after NASA data showed that August 2014 was the warmest August on record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed the ranking and raised the ante: There’s a good chance 2014 could become the warmest year on record.
“If we continue a consistent departure from average for the rest of 2014, we will edge out 2010 as the warmest year on record,” said Jake Crouch, a climatologist with NOAA’sNational Climatic Data Center, during a press briefing Thursday.
Specifically, if each of the remaining months of the year ranks among the top five warmest, 2014 will take the top spot, he said.
The news may come as a surprise to those living in the eastern portion of the U.S., which has seen a relatively cool year so far, with a frigid winter followed by anear-average summer (which seemed extremely mild compared to recent steamy summers). But the global picture shows that the East was “pretty much the only land area in the globe that had cooler-than-average temperatures,” Crouch said. (The western U.S., on the other hand, has been baking.)
For the year-to-date, the globe has measured 1.22°F above the 20th century average of 57.3°F, which makes January-August 2014 the third warmest such period since records began in 1880. The record-hot August marks the 38th consecutive August and the 354th consecutive month with a global average temperature above the 20th century average, according to the NCDC.
The oceans have fueled much of this year’s warmth, with parts of the Indian Ocean and central Pacific, among other spots, recording their record warmest conditions in both August and the entire January-August period. “And most of the oceans were much warmer than average” during that period, Crouch said.
The Pacific warmth is due in part to the El Nino that has been struggling to develop there for much of the year. An El Nino is defined by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific and tends to raise global temperatures; some El Nino years rank among the warmest on record.
Of the five warmest years on record (2010, 2005, 1998, 2013, and 2003, in that order), only 2013 and 2014 didn’t start with a mature El Nino, according to NOAA. Of the top 10 warmest years on record, 1998 is the only year that didn’t occur in the 21st century, showing how much global temperatures have risen due to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
The Earth’s oceans have never been this far beyond the bounds of normal.
New data released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed that Earth’s oceans reached a level last month not seen since humans have been keeping comprehensive records. Global ocean temperatures in August 2014 warmed to “the largest departure from average for any month on record” according to a NOAA statement. The previous record was set just two months ago, in June 2014.
Records date back to 1880, though there’s ample evidence that the new record hasn’t been matched in much longer than that.
Climate scientists took the news with a sense of foreboding:
The NOAA data also showed the temperature of the Earth as a whole hit a new all-time August record last month, confirming similar results earlier this week from NASA and the Japanese Meteorological Agency, which use slightly different ways of crunching the numbers.
Additionally, the combined temperature of June, July, and August was also unprecedented in historical records. According to the JMA, four of the last five months have now been record-breaking for that particular month. (July was No. 2, just a hair behind the super-charged El Niño year of 1998.) The eastern United States is among the only land areas on Earth still running below normal for 2014, a legacy of the polar vortex outbreaks of earlier this year.
Is this considered a La Nina or La Nada year?
If the prediction is wrong, the denierverse will be crowing.
But I’m more concerned about warm ocean temps, especially those large regions of “record warmest” east of Madagascar and northeast of Papua New Guinea.
“La Nina or La Nada year?” Neither neutral.
“denierverse will be crowing” they are in denial they will crow anyway!
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/global/2014/aug/2014-aug-eoy-scenarios.png
For reference, the five scenarios for the graphic on the right are:
Scenario Color (dashed line) Notes
Each month matches its warmest value on record [orange] Four of the last 12 months (November 2013, May 2014, June 2014, August 2014) have tied or exceeded this value
Each month matches its 3rd warmest value on record [purple] Each of the last five months (April through August) have been 3rd warmest or warmer
Each month matches the average of its ten warmest values [blue] Of the last 12 months, only February 2014 has not been at least this warm
Each month matches its 21st century average [navy] This includes the 13 values from 2001-13
Each month matches its 10th warmest value on record [green] Of the last 12 months, only February 2014 has not been at least this warm
So much for the tired denier “no warming since 199x” canard. It’s about to head for a long overdue retirement.
How come, if NASA and NOAA both state that 2014 is the warmest year on record, your graph of year to date global temperature clearly shows August 2010 and 1998 warmer than 2014?
The temperature graph is not a plot of monthly temperature but a running average for the year to date.
If the 2014 line is above the end point of 2010 then it is hottest year on record.
GISS NOAA
[The error bars for the temperature is 0.05C ]
Year GISS NOAA
2010 0.67 0.66
2005 0.66 0.65
1998 0.62 0.64
2013 0.61 0.63
2003 0.60 0.62
2002 0.61 0.61
2006 0.60 0.60
2009 0.59 0.60
2007 0.63 0.59
2004 0.51 0.58
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/ytd/12/1975-2014?trend=true&trend_base=10&firsttrendyear=1880&lasttrendyear=2013
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Looking at the GISS
2010 Monthly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
66 75 88 82 70 60 57 59 56 66 75 45
2014
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
70 45 70 73 79 62 53 70 **** **** **** ****
Note the drop in DEC for 2010
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v3b SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
2010 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5
2014 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Note that 2010 drop to a La Nina at the end and 2014 is predicted to go a weak El Nino.
Also know that 2005 and 1998 turmed negative at the ends of the years
Note you can see that the atmosphere response is delated my about three months
(V to Text error it posted before I completed editing)
It should end
Note you can see that the atmosphere response is delayed by about tree months.
Tree months? A Freudian slip about ClimateGate surfacing?
Thanks for the explanation! It all makes much more sense now 🙂
If NASA and NOAA both state that August 2014 is the warmest August on record worldwide, how come your graph of year-to-date global temperature clearly shows August 1998 and 2010 as warmer than 2014?
The temperature graph is not a plot of monthly temperature but a running average for the year to date.
If the 2014 line is above the end point of 2010 then it is hottest year on record.
full explanation “awaiting moderation” if it clears