UPDATE: MET Office Scientist Tells ITV storms consistent with Climate Change:
Climate Change is a key factor in the storms that have battered parts of Britain this winter, according to the Met Office’s chief scientist, who also warned that the country should prepare itself for similar events in the future.
Dame Julia Slingo said while there was not yet “definitive proof”, “all the evidence” pointed to Climate Change, and suggested that detecting when and how storms develop would become increasingly important.
“Is it consistent with what we might expect from climate change?
“Of course, as yet there can be no definitive answer on the particular events that we have seen this winter, but if we look at the broader base of evidence then we see things that support the premise that climate change has been making a contribution.”
Dame Julia said while none of the individual storms had been exceptional, the “clustering and persistence” were extremely unusual.
It’s one thing to see man made structures swallowed by the gigantic waves and relentless jet-stream driven storms that have hit the UK this winter – but when geological features that have stood for hundreds, if not thousands of years, are erased, one has to pause.
The accelerated re-arrangement of coastlines due to climate change and sea level rise is underway, but we haven’t seen anything yet.
Hate to give traffic to the Daily Mail, but there is this:
A huge ancient formation known as Pom Pom Rock has been destroyed after constant pounding by ferocious waves on the South coast.(below)The rock off Portland, Dorset, was said to have weighed hundreds of tonnes and dates back 150 million years to the Jurassic age.
It comes as a landmark rock arch that has stood for centuries in Cornwall was reduced to rubble by towering waves and 70mph winds. Porthcothan Bay is famed for its picture-postcard beach and caves – but its massive stone archway has now collapsed into the sea.(above)
The towering outcrop once resembled a giant rocky doughnut. Now, though, it looks like someone has taken a huge bite out of it.
David Petley in AGU Blogosphere:
The recent UK storms have brought exceptionally wild coastal weather, in particular to southern and western England, Wales and Northern Ireland. This has had a profound impact on the geomorphology of the British coast. The Met Office has a nice summary of these storms. The combination of strong winds, high tides, large waves and saturated ground has greatly accelerated coastal processes, promoting failure of large rock masses. The BBC has a nice article that highlights some of these changes.
I suspect more than a few Brits are having a “You’re going to need a bigger boat..” moment.
So, this is just weather, and not climate related? It is to laugh!
Prove to us how this is not due to climate change, Mr I Am So Objective. Show us how this is not due to a profound and sustained warming of the Arctic which has thrown the Jet Stream out of its historical pattern.
A warming which is most obviously evidenced by the sustained and profound loss of Arctic Ice volume over a climatologically-relevant time period.
Explain to us all how this weather pattern is consistent with anything observed in the past two hundred years. We all really want to know.
In fact, explain to us how this weather pattern is consistent with anything observed in the last 11,000 years that is not due to the Milankovitch cycle. We are all sitting on the edges of our seats.
Please feel free to:
“Met Office: Evidence ‘suggests climate change link to storms’
Climate change is likely to be a factor in the extreme weather that has hit much of the UK in recent months, the Met Office’s chief scientist has said.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625
As usual, you cant pin any particular storm to it, as it could be nature just tossing a random 6 on the die – but as James Hanson say – the dice are loaded so its more and more likely 6’s will pop up. Statistically we can clearly see there is a pattern in outlier weather incidents, outlier droughts, outlier snow fall, outlier ice hell, outliner flood, outlier wildfire, outlier ice melt… any single of these could be a random roll as well, but so many record this and record that occurring at the same time tells me this isn’t nature rolling random dice anymore…
The UK Weather Forecast…..
More rain.
More gales.
Further Flooding.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26079614
Might as well enjoy some water music, eh?
Recently a new riverfront park was developed across the boulevard from my home. The promptly built a too-large car park and then as an emollient they put in a couple swales to take the storm runoff from the excess paving and put it in a sump. Much as has been done in the UK as shown in this dimpled monument to the modern landscape band-aid:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26061201
I’m afraid I’m driven once again, by the madness of modern living, to take the water cure….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kuw8YjSbKd4
Curiously, Handel’s Water Music was composed in the 18th Century. This was the last time that southern England saw as much rain as it has this winter. Coincidence? You be the judge.
It’s a changed climate. Past tense! They say climate is what you expect (means, averages) and weather is what you get – well, we can no longer have any expectations climate-wise as we never know what we are going to get anymore – throw out all those numbers from the past because we are going to get a lot of weather