Sandy Update from Paul Douglas, Monday 1300 hrs

Paul Douglas:

Hurricane – Nor’easter Sandy Still On Track To Deliver Punishing Blow. It’s tempting to look at a Category 1 hurricane and think “no big deal – we’ve seen worse”. But it’s a combination of factors, meteorological, geographical and astronomical, that will make Sandy (much) more than a minor inconvenience from today into Tuesday. Latest model guidance suggests that winds won’t subside below tropical storm force in New York City until Wednesday morning. This is a long-duration, high-impact storm. Based on the latest 12z guidance (above) peak winds are forecast to come this afternoon and evening, some (slight) easing of winds by late evening as Sandy comes ashore near Atlantic City. Important: the storm is actually stronger, deeper, with lower pressure than predicted by the models yesterday at this time. Peak sustained winds have increased from 75 mph early Sunday to 90 mph (now), with gusts over 100 mph.

Monday Midday Headlines:

At last report Sandy was packing 90 mph winds with gusts over 100 mph – a central pressure of 27.85”, even deeper/stronger than some computer models were predicting yesterday.

The next 12-24 hours will be critical; Sandy comes ashore tonight, but two surges of water, magnified by high tide and a full moon, will sweep ashore – later this morning and midday, a second, slightly higher surge predicted for late evening. That is risk #1. Winds will be a factor, bringing down tree limbs and subsequently power lines, plunging millions (potentially) into darkness. People need to be prepared and ready for an extended period of time without power. Inland flooding will be another problem, especially from Philadelphia and Harrisburg to Washington D.C, Baltimore, Annapolis and the Delmarva Peninsula. If you’ve been flooded by a previous hurricane or tropical storm you’ll probably see significant flooding from Sandy.

Conditions will slowly improve Tuesday, but tropical storm force winds may not die down until a Wednesday time frame.